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14 Jul 2022
SSE : Net Zero drives growth - Buy
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SSE : Net Zero drives growth - Buy
SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 2,228 22.3 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 26,885m
- Published:
14 Jul 2022 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
11 -
Estimates updated to reflect recently announced acquisitions (SGRE, Triton Power), CfD Allocation Round 4 results (SSE awarded 220MW for Viking at £46.392012/MWh), and FY22 results.
Our estimates include £10.3bn of investment over 2021-26, lower than the £12.5bn set out in SSE’s Net Zero Acceleration Programme. We outline the differences in Figure 2, but these are largely due to projects on which SSE is still to achieve consent, or in the case of transmission, yet to be captured by the RIIO AIP process. We see upside risk to our modelled levels of investment.
Our FY23E EPS moves up significantly to 138.2p (Figure 1), with generation accounting for the largest component of the uplift (Figure 3). In turn, this is due to higher estimates for thermal, with SSE guiding to a level of adjusted EBIT of at least £337m ex. Keadby. We estimate £377m including Keadby and Triton.
SSE’s guidance for 2022/23 is for adjusted EPS of at least 120p, and our estimate sits ahead of this. We note that consensus is at 116.2p, and suggest that we will see upwards revisions in due course.
SSE’s guidance for adjusted EPS CAGR over the five-year period to 2025/26 is a range of 7-10%. Assuming a disposal of 25% of the networks business at a 40% RAV premium, we are slightly above the upper end, at 10.6%.
Our target price moves up to 1,900p/share with generation the biggest component of the uplift (Figure 5), albeit with a 24bp uplift in WACC limiting the increase.
The possibility of a windfall tax on electricity generation, a misguided policy option in our opinion, has been shelved for now, and transformative changes under REMA are likely to take time. We remain attracted to SSE’s equity story, and reiterate our BUY rating.