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20 Dec 2022
SSE : Net zero drives opportunity - Buy
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SSE : Net zero drives opportunity - Buy
SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 2,248 -1304.1 (-2.5%) | Mkt Cap: 24,937m
- Published:
20 Dec 2022 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
14 -
Little change to our EPS estimates for FY23E (-1.9%), and FY24E (-3.1%), but this masks many moving parts. Under-recovery in networks, lower output but higher prices in renewables, an increased contribution from thermal and gas storage, the Electricity Generator Levy, and the disposal of a 25% stake in transmission. Broadly in-line with consensus in each year (Figure 7).
SSE estimates that the gross RAV for transmission could exceed £12bn by 2031 (Figure 1), c.85% above the level in our estimates, a function of projects yet to be approved. Approval, which is now more likely, following Ofgem’s ASTI decision, points to a likely source of incremental multi-year growth.
In renewables, our estimates point to 6.9GW of capacity at FY26E vs. SSE’s 8GW (Figure 4). Consequently, our capex assumptions are below SSE’s (£4.3bn vs. £5bn), although the higher power price environment sees our EBITDA CAGR to FY26E for renewables comfortably above SSE’s >12% expectation.
Our modelling approach for transmission is to use the Ofgem PCFM, and we include large renewables projects when there is more clarity on timing and contractual arrangements, and this feeds through to our valuation, albeit that we include an allowance for the renewables pipeline.
Our valuation point is rolled over to FY24E, and moves up to 2,104p from 1,920p (Figure 10). In part, this is due to a lower WACC (4.64% vs. 5.05%), but it also reflects the latest Ofgem models, the ED2 Final Determination, and higher power price assumptions for merchant renewables. Our valuations suggest FY24E premia to RAV of 37% and 42% for transmission and distribution respectively.
Our target price moves up to 2,100p. BUY.