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14 Nov 2019
SSE : Nudging up EPS and target price - Hold
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SSE : Nudging up EPS and target price - Hold
SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 2,298 7639.2 16.8% | Mkt Cap: 25,480m
- Published:
14 Nov 2019 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
9 -
Forecasts updated post 1H20 results, taking into consideration comments made by SSE in the press release/presentation. Notable changes include gas production hedging as a continuing operation, an extension of onshore wind’s economic life for depreciation to 25 years from 20 years, higher expected losses in EPM in FY20E, and an effective tax rate of 12% vs. our previous assumption of 10%. This has the combined impact of pushing up EPS estimates across our forecast period, most notably in FY20E where our revised EPS of 83.6p, up 4.4%, is towards the bottom of SSE’s revised 83p-88p range.
Many moving parts in our sum-of-the-parts valuation, but the most notable driver of a lower equity value, reduced by 46p/share, is SSE’s updated guidance of £10.4bn adjusted net debt at FY20, vs. prior guidance of £10bn, equivalent to a 38p/share impact.
Our target price has, however, nudged up slightly to 1,350p (from 1,340p), as although granular detail on how the recently secured offshore wind CfDs will add value remains absent, SSE’s observations on the level of equity investment needed hint at value enhancing sell-downs. We acknowledge the risks attached to assuming value at this stage, ahead of further information in the first half of next year, but we have included c.50p of value enhancement from assumed sell-downs in arriving at our target price.
SSE’s stock price is little changed from our recent more comprehensive report (see SSE: Increasing strategic clarity, but pause for breath, dated 24th October), and with a 12-month forecast total return of c.8%, we remain Holders.