Following last week’s trading statement, and the changes to the Electricity Generation Levy (EGL) announced pre-Christmas, we have updated our estimates. Plant availability and the broader commodity environment are supportive for both thermal generation and gas storage, and we move our estimates up for both. Renewables moves the other way, with output c.10% below plan in the nine months to 31st December. Together these see a material uplift in our EPS estimate for FY23E (+22.5%) to 154.5p, consistent with SSE’s ‘more than 150p’ guidance. FY24E (+0.9%) and FY25E (+1.3%) benefit from tweaks to finance charges, and changes to the EGL (Figure 5). The above flows through to our valuation, and we nudge our target price up to 2,120p, implying a potential total return of c.25%. We continue to see a clear need for investment in renewables and networks in GB. SSE is well placed to benefit from this direction of travel, and we view Ofgem’s pre-Christmas decision to implement a new Accelerated Strategic Transmission Investment (ASTI) regulatory framework as evidence of a regulatory tailwind. The framework initially applies to c.£20bn (2021/22 prices) of onshore investment across 26 projects (Figure 4), with these exempted from competition, and subject to a new reward/penalty ODIs. The ASTI framework is likely to see a material uplift in totex allowances. For SSE, we estimate that this could be £7-8bn (2021/22 prices), with c.85% in RIIO-3. This is not included in our estimates, but we suggest that the inclusion of ASTI projects in totex allowances could be value-accretive to SSE, conservatively adding c.4% to our SOP.