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03 Sep 2021
SSE : Ten reasons revisited – BUY - Buy
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SSE : Ten reasons revisited – BUY - Buy
SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 1,870 -626.6 (-1.8%) | Mkt Cap: 20,745m
- Published:
03 Sep 2021 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
18 -
The Crown Estate leasing round underscores our view that there is value in SSE’s offshore pipeline; we now attribute value to a broader range of projects.
CfD Allocation Round 4 opens in December with key dates now published – we expect SSE to bid.
Our thesis of a decade of opportunity in wind remains intact, with the possibility of steady capacity additions over the next ten years.
The system needs long duration storage, and pumped storage is nature’s battery. The LLES call for evidence is a positive, and COP26 offers an opportunity for the government to expand the narrative.
The CMA’s provisional decision in the RIIO-2 appeals process largely sided with Ofgem, but the likely demise of the outperformance wedge is a positive.
SSE’s draft ED2 business plan sets out a 45% totex increase in the base case, although the cost of equity put forward is aggressive. Submission of final plans is in December.
SSE reached an agreement to sell SGN quicker than we expected, and at a valuation 39p/share higher than we had assumed in our previous valuation.
Recent network transactions (National Grid/WPD, Pennon/Bristol Water, SGN disposal) were at RAV/RCV premia above those in our sum-of-the-parts valuation for SSE’s network activities. Applying a 40% premium would add c.130p/share.
Our target price moves up to 1,800p (from 1,675p), with the achieved price for SGN, the likely demise of the outperformance wedge, and a higher value of the offshore wind pipeline the key contributors. This suggests a potential 14% total return over 12 months.