Companies: Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc (COG:LON)ValiRx PLC (VAL:LON)
Companies: ALU AMO COG ELCO IOF TCM EVG
Cambridge Cognition ("COG") has provided a trading update for the year ended 31 December 2020 that is ahead of our expectations. Group Revenues grew +34% to £6.7m (2019: £5.0m) and were +7% ahead of DCe of £6.3m. COG delivered significant revenue growth from digital solutions for clinical trials as it increased its focus on commercialisation. The strong beat in Revenue is due to an improved commercial execution across a wider portfolio of products as the Group has placed a key emphasis on crossselling CANTAB with newer electronic Clinical Outcome Assessment (eCOA) and digital solutions for frequent, remote testing of patients outside of the clinic setting. The Group's order intake for the year closed at a record £12.7m, up +158% on the previous year's order intake of £4.9m and maintaining the growth trajectory reported in the interim results. The Group experienced a mixed effect due to Covid-19 as some orders and revenue recognition was delayed in the year. However, the pandemic has provided an impetus for an industry shift towards evaluating virtual clinical trials, which opened new opportunities for the Group. We move our target price to 89p (from 80p).
Companies: Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc
Cambridge Cognition provided a positive FY 2020 trading update, with revenues (+34%), net losses and cash all ahead of expectations, and delivering an EBITDA-positive Q4. After a year of record order intake (£12.7m) and with a year-end order book of £11.2m (+96% on the prior year), the company is positioned to deliver another year of strong growth. This update provides further evidence of (i) the commercial focus that the CEO has instigated, (ii) the cross-selling opportunities for its newer digital solutions, and (iii) the prospect of a period of sustained strong growth in what are large (c.£1.2bn) and high growth (c.20%) addressable markets for digital solutions for clinical trials. We increase FY 2021 revenues by 18% to £8.5m, implying 26% growth and raise our target price 31% to 105p.
It has been a year the likes of which we have never seen before, and hope never to see again. The description of the impact of the CV19 pandemic as K-shaped certainly feels accurate, with some sectors being well placed to benefit from the creative disruption that has engulfed the world, accelerating structural changes, while others through no fault of their own have been severely impacted. This has been the case for the Dowgate portfolio of corporate clients, with our quoted clients falling into three groups. The first, comprising Cambridge Cognition, GRC, The Panoply, S4 Capital and Water Intelligence have on average seen their share prices double this year as structural changes accelerated by CV19 have been accompanied by strong execution. The second, comprising Franchise Brands, OTAQ and SEEEN, have experienced share price declines averaging a third as their businesses have either been directly impacted by CV19 or their growth aspirations curtailed. The final group comprises those companies which have been bid for this year, namely Be Heard, Hunters Property, Huntsworth and Reach4Entertainment. Looking into 2021, we expect continued strong performance from the first group and a rebound in the second as the world returns to normal. Finally, having completed Series A/B rounds for a range of private companies this year, we hope to bring these entrepreneur-led, growth companies to market in 2021.
Companies: COG FRAN GRC OTAQ TPX SFOR SEEN WATR
Cambridge Cognition announced it has won a £0.75m digital health contract to provide cognitive tests and electronic clinical outcome assessments (eCOA) for an Alzheimer's trial. The contract is spread over two years with a considerable portion of revenue expected to be received in 2021. The new win is the Group's fifth major announcement in 2020 with £0.75m (December), £0.75m (October), £2m (3x trials, September), £1m+ (May) and £1.4m (March). The new Alzheimer's win is for a pharmaceutical client taking a new approach with a cutting-edge part-virtual clinical trial which combines in-person and remote testing. Cambridge Cognition is in a unique position to support the delivery of this trial with expertise in both goldstandard cognitive assessment and innovative digital health solutions for frequent, remote testing.
Companies: AVCT COG UNG
Companies: Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc (COG:LON)Polarean Imaging Plc (POLX:LON)
Polarean Imaging (POLX.L): Submission of NDA | Cambridge Cognition (COG.L): New contract
Companies: Polarean Imaging Plc (POLX:LON)Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc (COG:LON)
Argo Blockchain (ARB): | Cambridge Cognition (COG): Corp | Chaarat Gold Holdings (CGH): Corp | Omega Diagnostics (ODX): Corp
Companies: COG ODX CGH ARB
Cambridge Cognition reported encouraging interim results to June, with revenues up +39% to £3.0m and the Pre-Tax Loss sharply reduced to £0.4m. The company has made strong progress on its commercialisation strategy this year and, having announced £4.9m of contract wins in H1, a major win for a schizophrenia trial has since increased this to £8.4m. Although CV19 led to some contracted clinical trials being delayed in H1, this has been offset by new contract wins and going forwards we see a structural shift to virtual clinical trials which plays to CamCog's strength in remote clinical testing. We raise our FY20 revenue forecast to £6.3m (was £6.2m), which we view as conservative given the sales contracted for 2H20, though we are mindful of possible delays due to CV19. We continue to model a FY20 loss of -£0.7m, with CamCog moving into profit in Q4. We forecast the group to be profitable for FY21 and believe profits can build materially given the tailwind of 17-20% industry growth. We retain our Buy recommendation and raise our target price to 80p (was 75p).
Cambridge Cognition (COG): Corp | Frenkel Topping (FEN): Corp | Ideagen (IDEA): Corp | Iofina (IOF): Corp | K3 Capital (K3C): Corp | NAHL (NAH): Corp | President Energy (PPC): Corp | Tremor (TRMR): Corp | Trifast (TRI): Corp
Companies: COG FEN IDEA IOF K3C TRMR PPC
Interim results to 30 June 2020 showed a 38% increase in revenues, despite COVID-related disruption to clinical trials, illustrating the clear commercial focus that has been brought to bear on its range of digital technologies and solutions. Together with an 18% reduction in operating expenses, adjusted LBITDA and pre-tax loss improved by £1.3m to -£0.29m and -£0.36m, respectively. Period-end cash was £1.96m, with cash burn falling £1.1m to £0.2m in the period. Break-even in Q4 2020 is still anticipated. The contracted order book increased 35% to c.£10m at 31 August (vs. 30 June 2020), providing increased visibility of revenues in H2 and FY 2021 (c.108% and 57% of current forecasts, respectively). Due to the changing working patterns that are emerging as a result of the COVID pandemic, we believe that Cambridge Cognition is well positioned to be a long-term beneficiary of the trend of running virtual trials. We leave forecasts unchanged, but in light of the strong order book and potential for future upgrades, we raise target to 80p, which implies a 2021 EV/sales multiple of 3.4x.
Cambridge Cognition (COG): Corp | Wameja (WJA): Corp
Cambridge Cognition ("COG") has provided a trading update for the 6 months to 30 June and presented its growth strategy at an excellent Capital Markets Day. The Group continues to build on an impressive H1 2020, announcing additional contract wins that take the order intake to £4.9m (+88% vs H1 2019). COG is currently 'seeing unprecedented demand' for its solutions which enable pharmaceutical companies to continue clinical trials even while participants are unable to physically visit clinical trial sites.
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Although 2020 will probably go down in history as one of the most challenging years experienced during our lifetime, it will also likely be chronicled as one of the best years for the recognition and appreciation of science. As we entered 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was in its infancy. However, it rapidly evolved through the exponential rise in infections and mortality globally. Much has been achieved during the past 12 months in the fight against COVID-19, but, as we enter 2021, there are considerable concerns about the emergence of a mutant version of the virus and the second wave that we are now facing.
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
Q4 trading has led sales to guidance being raised 8%. This has been driven by better than expected UK sales, incl. success with new customers like Wilko/Tesco. Some of the benefit is offset by a non-cash FX debit, but it still leads to an upgrade and higher net cash. As a result of successful trials in Tesco Express, W7 is also being rolled out to 469 more stores. This, and previously announced distribution gains, bodes well for incremental sales/PBT in 2021, and underlines the appeal of its value-for-money brands. On 11x 2019 cash-adjusted EV/EBITDA, valuation is undemanding, particularly with the added attraction of dividends/income.
Companies: Warpaint London PLC
Ongoing strength in the key China market has prompted a positive trading update, indicating FY21 revenues and EBITDA will be significantly ahead of (already upgraded) expectations. Demand for Aivlosin in China in particular has remained strong throughout Q3 and is expected to remain so in Q4. We upgrade our FY21 revenue forecasts by 12% to £91.9m, which flows through to a 30% PBT upgrade to £10.1m. Whilst there is some caution expressed over the sustainability of this demand, we now forecast a flat performance YoY in FY22, but this is still 10% ahead of our previous estimates at the PBT level. The shares remain suspended pending the publication of the delayed FY20 results, which will be released as soon as possible alongside the H1’21 interims.
Companies: ECO Animal Health Group plc
Foresight Group , the award-winning infrastructure and private equity investment manager to IPO on the Main Market (premium). The Offer will primarily comprise a sale of shares by existing shareholders (c.80% of the Offer) with a smaller offering of new shares (c.20% of the Offer) to be issued by the Company. Details TBA. Cornish Metals (TSX-V: CUSN) intends to list on AIM. The Company is proposing to raise £5 million by way of private placement of new Common Shares (the "Fundraising") to advance the United Downs copper-tin project. The Company expects that Admission will become effective in February 2021. The Company's Common Shares will continue to be listed and trade on the TSX-V in Canada. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb.
Companies: TYM W7L BEG CRPR EUZ IRR CMCL FARN KETL AUG
Synairgen (SNG.L): Completion of recruitment for at home trial | Sensyne Health (SENS.L): Research agreement with The Royal Wolverhampton NHS Trust
Companies: Synairgen plc (SNG:LON)Sensyne Health Plc (SENS:LON)
ANGLE raised £19.6m (gross) to capitalise on the first-mover advantage that the FDA clearance for Parsortix will create, catalysing ANGLE’s ability to exploit the emerging multi-billion dollar liquid biopsy market. It will enable ANGLE to pursue multiple parallel revenue streams: (i) as a service provider to the pharma industry particularly looking to improve on immunotherapy patient outcomes (companion diagnostics) and (ii) to develop a number of specific clinical applications. Not only does it strengthen the balance sheet ahead of partner discussions but it provides the resources to develop in parallel relevant laboratory developed tests and fund the necessary clinical utility studies that will accelerate clinical adoption. We re-introduce forecasts and raise our target price to 150p (c.£310m EV), which is supported by risk-adjusted DCF and peer group analyses.
Companies: ANGLE plc
Robust FY21 performance forecast, despite pandemic
Companies: SDI Group plc
After an eventful 2020, ReNeuron released updated 12-month Phase ll data in January on its lead human retinal progenitor cell (hRPC) project. This continues to show a consistent and robust, sustained average gain in visual acuity in retinitis pigmentosa (RP). A continuation study in nine patients using two million cells is underway with three- and six-month data due over H2 CY21 and the first three patients treated. This will facilitate partnering negotiations. A pivotal hRPC study may start in 2022. Deals are possible in CY21 on the exosome genetic drug delivery platform, which could be very valuable. The valuation remains at £190m with strong cash.
Companies: ReNeuron Group plc
On 30th December 2020, RUA reported that shareholders had approved resolutions regarding the placing along with a strongly oversubscribed Open Offer. RUA now start 2021 with the resources and mandate to accelerate the development of its products, where we anticipate reports of progress during the year. We have slightly increased our R&D and CapEx spend for FY 2022 to reflect this investment and the cash utilization. RUA’s issued share capital now comprises 22,184,797 shares and the increases in FY 2022 investment in its products, modestly change our valuation by about £2.0m to £113.2m for the Company, equating to 510p per share.
Companies: RUA Life Sciences Plc
Interim results were in line with the 28 October trading update, reflecting the impact of the pandemic, with sales down 27% and LBITDA of £1.3m. However, c.10% LFL growth for Health & Nutrition (HN) in October and November is encouraging and points to long-term growth. Together with confirmation that first shipments against the initial 1m order for AbC-19 rapid antibody tests have taken place as well as first shipments of VISITECT CD4 Advanced Diseases tests to Africa, we expect a strong H2 (c.75% of FY sales), with potential upside driven by a currently poorly visible, yet anticipated long-term opportunity from its three key value drivers: Food Detective in China, VISITECT CD4 and COVID-19 lateral flow devices (LFDs). We leave our forecasts unchanged until we have further clarity on the unfolding COVID-19 opportunities. Whilst this implies c.£9.4m sales in H2, this is still eminently achievable given that supply has the ability to generate in excess of £9m of sales in Q4 FY 2021, should the demand materialise.
Companies: Omega Diagnostics Group PLC
STX is a commercial-stage company delivering specialty products that address patients’ unmet medical needs, with an initial focus on treating iron deficiency (ID). Feraccru®/Accrufer® has been approved by the regulators in both Europe and the US. For various reasons, STX has been unable to secure a commercial partner for Accrufer in the US. Consequently, the board is now considering an STX-led launch option, thereby retaining all the US profits. Financial modelling shows the logic of this option, but it would necessitate financing the working capital requirements covering the next two years in the region of £25m-£30m.
Companies: Shield Therapeutics Plc
Ongoing strong demand for EKF’s products, both in the core business and the Primestore MTM Covid-19 sample collection device, means the FY20 outturn will be “comfortably ahead” of already upgraded expectations. This pattern is expected to persist throughout Q1’21 and beyond and management is confident that the performance in Q1 will be materially ahead of expectations. Having previously left FY21 estimates untouched, we are today putting through the first in what we expect to be a series of material upgrades. Given the dynamic situation around Covid-19, we expect regular updates throughout the course of the year and will adjust our forecasts accordingly as visibility over ordering patterns increases.
Companies: EKF Diagnostics Holdings plc
Novacyt Initiation of Coverage: Through the rapid commercialisation of a COVID-19 test, Novacyt has transformed its financial position. Demand for the Group's COVID-19 test and other COVID-19 reagents are expected to make up the majority of revenue generated until FY22E, whereupon the Group is looking to drive long-term growth across its business via the development of high-margin clinical diagnostics and establish itself as a leader in infectious disease testing.
Companies: Novacyt SAS
MaxCyte has confirmed that its CARMA Cell Therapies subsidiary will expand its phase I clinical trial of MCY-M11, its differentiated lead cell therapy candidate currently in first-in-human studies for advanced solid cancers. This is a natural progression based on promising preliminary data from the
Companies: MaxCyte, Inc.
Study confirms the value of testing for calprotectin in COVID-19 patients
Elevated calprotectin associated with more severe outcome
This is one of several studies reporting elevated calprotectin in severe COVID-19
Gentian is currently rolling out GCAL which measures calprotectin
Companies: Gentian Diagnostics AS