Strong H1-24 update leaves group well on track

NIOX continues to deliver, with H1-24 revenues +15% CER, operating margins improving and underlying FCF closely following. This is all as expected and we make no change to our forecasts at this stage, noting these appear well underpinned given H1-24 Adj EBITDA of £7.1m is >50% of our FY24 estimate. We look forward to a fuller update at the Interims in late September, when we expect have more visibility on the FY outlook, an update on potential further return(s) of capital and on the new products

Many happy returns

NIOX has delivered FY23 results in line with upgraded expectations. Notable highlights include CER growth of 29% in the core Clinical business, Adj EBITDA margins reaching 31%, the payment of a 2.5p Special dividend and the declaration of a maiden 1.0p final dividend. With a strong balance sheet, the prospect remains for additional special dividends from excess cash in addition to a progressive ordinary dividend. We make no material change to forecasts at this stage and continue to see a long gr

Core holding trading on 5% FCF Yield

NIOX enjoyed another strong year in FY23, with revenues growing >20% CER and operating margins improving materially once again. We see scope for sustained growth into the medium term, with various initiatives underway to further drive penetration of FeNO testing. The fundamentals of NIOX are highly attractive, supported by regular forecast upgrades and optionality around shareholder returns given the strong balance sheet. In this context, the shares should be viewed as a core holding in the sect

Reassuring FY23 Trading Update

NIOX has delivered a broadly positive FY trading update coupled with an upbeat financial and operational outlook. FY revenues are expected to come in at £36.8m (+22% CER vs FY22); slightly lower than cons. £37.6m and SCMe £37.9m but net cash ahead of market expectations at £19.9m (vs cons. £18.9m & SCMe £19.3m). Furthermore, margins are expected to improve to 72% resulting in FY23E adj. EBITDA coming in line with cons. at £11.4m. We make no changes to forecasts today, as we await full detail fro

Interims – trading in line with upgraded estimates

NIOX delivered a strong H1, driven by Clinical revenues +29% in the period. Trading is in line with the forecasts that were materially upgraded in July. Margins continue to strengthen and cash flow is following the increased profitability. Having returned £10.5m via a special dividend in September, we expect a maiden ordinary dividend to be declared at the finals in March, reflecting the strong fundamentals and highly cash generative nature of the model. We continue to view NIOX as a unique asse

Strong Clinical trading prompts further upgrades

The strong momentum in the first four months of the year has continued for the rest of H1, with core Clinical revenues increasing by a strong 29% in the period. APAC was the key highlight as those markets return to normal post the easing Covid-related restrictions, but other territories continue to deliver good growth. Favourable mix and a further reduction in overheads YoY has brought Adj EBITDA in at £6.2m, considerably more than 50% of our FY estimate. We therefore push through further materi

AGM statement prompts further upgrades

NIOX’s strong momentum has continued, with revenues increasing 21% in the first four months of the year. Gross margins have remained robust and, with a continued tight control of overheads, management now expects FY23 Adj EBITDA to be significantly higher than that expected at the start of the year. We upgrade our FY23 estimates accordingly (Adj EBITDA +17% to £10.0m) and ripple these through outer years. The direction of travel is clearly very positive and we see continued scope for growth and

Positive momentum persists

2022 was a pivotal year for NIOX as it moved firmly into sustainable profitability and cash generation. The foundations for a scalable platform are now well-established and the group enters 2023 with strong momentum (revenues in the first two months of the year were +19%). Having upgraded our forecasts following the trading update in January, we push through further EBITDA upgrades on improved margin assumptions. NIOX is a rare asset and fully deserves a premium rating. We stay at Buy, with an i

Confirming further upgrades post positive update

At the trading update earlier this week, NIOX indicated FY22 EBITDA would be around £7.0m, ~15% ahead of already upgraded expectations, with net cash coming in at £19.4m. This was driven by 15% underlying revenue growth, improved gross margins on mix and ongoing operational efficiencies. We formally update our estimates in this note, increasing our FY22 PBT/EPS forecast by 20% but, prudently, leaving FY23/24 unchanged for now. The outlook remains positive with latent growth potential in the US a

FY22 EBITDA ahead of upgraded expectations

NIOX has again exceeded expectations, with FY22 EBITDA expected at around £7.0m, ahead of both our and consensus expectations, which had already been upgraded twice in the year. This was driven by better than expected gross margins and ongoing operating efficiencies. The balance sheet is strong, with good cash generation and the first instalment of the BeyondAir settlement received. Net cash (pre-IFRS16) was slightly ahead of expectations at £19.4m, providing optionality over investment and shar

Strong interims – on track for FY

Niox (formerly Circassia) has delivered a strong set of interim results, which has continued into H2. Revenues in July and August increased by a strong +25% and trading is in line with already upgraded EBITDA expectations. Cash reserves continue to build and we increase further our Y/E cash assumptions by £3m, reflecting lower than expected legacy rebate payments. The board is seeking approval to create distributable reserves to facilitate potential returns to shareholders in due course. We reit

Positive update leads to material further upgrades

Circassia has delivered another positive update, demonstrating yet again the benefits of management’s restructuring actions in recent years. Notable highlights were a strong Gross Margin performance on favourable mix effects and continued progress on reducing the overhead base. Net, this resulted in EBITDA of £3.2m in H1, some 78% of our previous FY estimate. We push through material profit upgrades this year (+50% to EBITDA) and trickle these through to outer years. With cash generation now fol

THE MONTHLY January 2020

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is due to publish its most up-to-date survey on share ownership in mid-January, which identifies the beneficial owners and decision- makers of the stock market. Hardman & Co has worked together with the share analysis service, Argus Vickers, to jointly produce its own survey, which anticipates the conclusions of the ONS survey but goes into much greater detail. Our work does not use a sample of 200 quoted companies as the ONS historically has, but rather

HUTCHMED - China NDA withdrawn for Fruquintinib in gastric cancer

HUTCHMED has announced that it has it has voluntarily withdrawn its new drug application (NDA) in China for fruquintinib in second-line gastric cancer. The company cited that it became clear from its dialogue with the Chinese regulators, and its external committee members, that the overall survival results from the phase III FRUTIGA trial, in their current format, could not serve as the basis of an approval, and that further work needs to be undertaken. Whilst the news is clearly disappointing,

MNOV: Phase 3 ALS Readout in 2025

On August 8, 2024, MediciNova, Inc. (MNOV) filed form 10-Q with financial results for the second quarter of 2024. The company is conducting a Phase 3 clinical trial of MN-166 (ibudilast) in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), which includes 12 months of double-blind treatment plus a six-month open label extension period. The primary endpoint is change from baseline in ALSFRS-R at Month 12 and survival time. We anticipate a data readout in 2025. The company is also conducting a Phase 2 trial of

ENSC: Substantial Federal Funds Granted

Ensysce Biosciences is committed to finding a solution to the opioid crisis plaguing the US and other developed countries around the world. Through its proprietary TAAP technology Ensysce is in the process of receiving approval for an abuse-resistant yet still pain-relieving opioid. The company announced that it has received a $14 million grant from the NIH for the continued development of its abuse deterrent opioid-PF614-MPAR.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 16/12/2021

Joiners DSW Capital plc (DSW.L) a profitable, fast growing, mid-market, challenger professional services network joins AIM. DSW operates a licencing model and licences the DSW and associated brand names in return for a royalty based on a percentage of fee income. Public Policy Holding Company (PPHC.L) leading bi-partisan, full-service US government affairs business joins AIM. Through its wholly-owned companies, PPHC operates a portfolio of independent firms that offer public affairs, crisis mana

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 14 Jul 23

14th July 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objecti

Belluscura AGM Update

Belluscura has released an AGM trading update that reveals strong sales momentum has continued through the summer with consecutive record revenues set in June and July of $0.5m and $0.7m respectively, as the X-PLOR finds broader market acceptance and after a soft launch of the new DISCOV-R.

Morning Note – 27 June 2024

Morning Note – 27 August 2024

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 30 Nov 23

30th November 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obj

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 09 May 2024

9th May 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: E-Therapeutics (ETX.L) has left AIM. Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO.L) has left AIM. What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: 7th May: Time To ACT plc, an engineering business focused on technology for the energy transition sector, has a

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 28 May 24

28th May 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced, or it is a rumour Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: Accrol Group Holdings (ACRL.L) has left AIM. China Nonferrous Gold Limited (CNG.L) has left AIM. What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: ITF announced: 7th May: Time To ACT plc, an engineering business focused o

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 16 July 2024

16th July 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced, or it is a rumour Dish of the day Admissions: None Delistings: None What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: ITF announced: 8th July 2024: Rome Resources: The Canada-based early-stage resource exploration Company has announced its intention to IPO on AIM in order to co

Allenby Capital TMT Update - 18.03.24 - MWE.L, CHSS.L, CPX.L, BVC.L, SSIT.L

Please find below our weekly update covering themes that we feel that are of interest to investors and participants in the small and mid-cap TMT sector as well as commentary on recent newsflow.

Shield Therapeutics - AOP Milestone Monetisation gives comfort on cash position

STX has done a deal with its major shareholder, AOP Health International Management, under which it will get a $5.7m cash advance, to be paid back by the future milestone payment ($11.4m) that STX expects to receive upon the approval of Accrufer in China in 2026. Although the payback terms are favourable to AOP, we would not expect it to further invest if it did not have a clear line of sight to payback via the China approval, and more broadly STX’s ability to become profitable. In today’s relea