AGM statement prompts further upgrades

NIOX’s strong momentum has continued, with revenues increasing 21% in the first four months of the year. Gross margins have remained robust and, with a continued tight control of overheads, management now expects FY23 Adj EBITDA to be significantly higher than that expected at the start of the year. We upgrade our FY23 estimates accordingly (Adj EBITDA +17% to £10.0m) and ripple these through outer years. The direction of travel is clearly very positive and we see continued scope for growth and

Positive momentum persists

2022 was a pivotal year for NIOX as it moved firmly into sustainable profitability and cash generation. The foundations for a scalable platform are now well-established and the group enters 2023 with strong momentum (revenues in the first two months of the year were +19%). Having upgraded our forecasts following the trading update in January, we push through further EBITDA upgrades on improved margin assumptions. NIOX is a rare asset and fully deserves a premium rating. We stay at Buy, with an i

Confirming further upgrades post positive update

At the trading update earlier this week, NIOX indicated FY22 EBITDA would be around £7.0m, ~15% ahead of already upgraded expectations, with net cash coming in at £19.4m. This was driven by 15% underlying revenue growth, improved gross margins on mix and ongoing operational efficiencies. We formally update our estimates in this note, increasing our FY22 PBT/EPS forecast by 20% but, prudently, leaving FY23/24 unchanged for now. The outlook remains positive with latent growth potential in the US a

FY22 EBITDA ahead of upgraded expectations

NIOX has again exceeded expectations, with FY22 EBITDA expected at around £7.0m, ahead of both our and consensus expectations, which had already been upgraded twice in the year. This was driven by better than expected gross margins and ongoing operating efficiencies. The balance sheet is strong, with good cash generation and the first instalment of the BeyondAir settlement received. Net cash (pre-IFRS16) was slightly ahead of expectations at £19.4m, providing optionality over investment and shar

Strong interims – on track for FY

Niox (formerly Circassia) has delivered a strong set of interim results, which has continued into H2. Revenues in July and August increased by a strong +25% and trading is in line with already upgraded EBITDA expectations. Cash reserves continue to build and we increase further our Y/E cash assumptions by £3m, reflecting lower than expected legacy rebate payments. The board is seeking approval to create distributable reserves to facilitate potential returns to shareholders in due course. We reit

Positive update leads to material further upgrades

Circassia has delivered another positive update, demonstrating yet again the benefits of management’s restructuring actions in recent years. Notable highlights were a strong Gross Margin performance on favourable mix effects and continued progress on reducing the overhead base. Net, this resulted in EBITDA of £3.2m in H1, some 78% of our previous FY estimate. We push through material profit upgrades this year (+50% to EBITDA) and trickle these through to outer years. With cash generation now fol

Continued growth and margin improvement prompt further upgrades

A positive AGM update confirms strong revenue growth has continued YTD and further margin improvement means management again expect EBITDA to be materially ahead of expectations. The business model is now settled, with additional distributors appointed in the US which should help drive further penetration into the Primary Care market there. China revenues were strong and with no sign yet of any slowdown, despite being cognisant of renewed lockdowns there. Gross margins have remained robust on po

Prelims in line with upgraded forecasts

Circassia has delivered strong growth in revenues and a positive adj EBITDA, in line with upgraded expectations. This represents a key milestone for the company as it moves into sustainable profitability and cash generation. We leave our forecasts unchanged for now, but see upside potential as Clinical markets normalise and the awareness of the benefits of routine FeNO testing continue to grow. We stay at Buy with a TP of 51p.

FY21 slightly ahead of expectations

Circassia has delivered a strong outturn to FY21, with revenues 2% ahead at £27.9m (+17% YoY) and a maiden positive adj EBITDA, ahead of our expectations of a small loss, which had already been upgraded during the year. Gross margins remained steady at 68% and 84% recurring revenues was also consistent with the previous year. Net cash was also ahead at £12.6m, with the underlying NIOX business generating £1.1m of cash in H2, another notable milestone. We leave our outer years forecasts prudently

Positive interims, further upgrades

Momentum is building in Circassia, with the recovery from the pandemic gaining traction and actions taken by management to focus the business having a material impact on the bottom line. Having already upgraded in July, we are upgrading forecasts again today to reflect the further progress on reducing fixed costs. We now expect the group to trade close to EBITDA breakeven this year and for significantly improved profitability and cash generation from next year onwards.

Focus pays off, drives upgrades

Circassia’s focus on its Niox business is paying off, with revenues recovering rapidly and further progress made in reducing the fixed cost base. As a result, management now expects FY21E EBITDA to be ahead of market expectations. We upgrade our forecasts accordingly, now looking for narrower EBITDA losses this year and a comfortable move into profitability in FY22E. We see further potential upside as the recovery becomes more established and visibility improves further, which should lead to mat

Settlement with Beyond Air provides optionality

Circassia has reached a settlement with Beyond Air regarding a disputed contract over rights to the latter’s LungFit product. Under the terms of the settlement, Circassia will surrender its rights in exchange for staged cash payments of up to $16.5m, contingent on FDA approval. Per Beyond Air’s recent statements, this is pending and could be received in H2 this year. We view this as a positive outcome for Circassia, providing a potential source of non-dilutive funding over the next few years.

Encouraging trading YTD

Trading for the first 4 months of the year is reported to be slightly ahead of expectations, up 9% YoY to £9.3m. This has been driven by a recovery in activity levels in the Clinical business and a stronger than expected performance from sales into the Research market. Costs remain tightly controlled and the business traded at close to EBITDA breakeven in the period (pre-HO costs). We make no changes to forecasts at this stage, but view this as a highly encouraging update. We continue to see a s

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 15 May 2023

Kromek - Placing raises £7m with Open Offer of up to £1m

Kromek raised £7m (with up to £1m via an Open Offer) to strengthen the balance sheet and provide the working capital for the CT programme to bridge the gap before supply agreements with recently announced Tier 1 and Tier 2 OEMs commence in earnest. As the only independent commercial scale manufacturer of the next-generation detector (CZT) for use in CT and SPECT imaging systems, Kromek is actively engaged with 9 OEMs (both Tier 1 and Tier 2), with 3 agreements having now been signed (FC estimate

LIBERUM: Aptamer* - Prelims supports growth projections

LIBERUM: Aptamer* - Initiation - Build better binders

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 19 May 23

19th May 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Vetting the opportunity

Monday''s trading update caused the shares to drop 13%, leaving c28% upside on the possible all-cash offer price by EQT, set at 4,070p per share. While the market seems sceptical on the deal going through (outcome expected by June 2), we believe EQT will proceed and most likely on unchanged terms. We turn opportunistic and upgrade the shares to outperform. Destocking and European slowdown behind the trading update Destocking in the USA went deeper than expected by a couple of weeks, with inven

Extensions provide £12m revenue underpin

Oncimmune (ONC LN) - Successful divestment & debt refinancing enhances potential for value growth

This morning Oncimmune announced the successful divestment of its lung cancer diagnostic (EarlyCDT®) business to US cancer detection specialist Freenome Holdings Inc., for £13m in cash. Sale proceeds have been used to pay down almost 50% of outstanding debt principal. The remaining €6.0m of debt has been refinanced. Oncimmune is now focused solely on its ImmunoINSIGHTS™ discovery business. In a separate deal, Freenome has purchased ImmunoINSIGHTS™ services worth at least €1.14m per year for a pe

ReNeuron Group Prelims

Preliminary FY 2023 results from ReNeuron Group plc (RENE.L) highlight its transition via restructuring from a clinical-stage drug developer to a drug delivery platform based on its exosome technologies. As such, clinical trial spend is being minimised to cover legacy obligations only and in future will be conducted instead by partners, such as Fosun Pharma. The generation of data validating its CustomEx™ exosome platform to enable partnering and licensing transactions can be completed more cost

Fusion Antibodies Update

Fusion Antibodies has announced a £1.5m fundraising concurrently with a cost cutting exercise that should together provide it with an 18-month cash runway as it transitions towards a higher-value proposition. The fundraising is being conducted at 5p/share, a price that reflects the current adverse funding environment. A new strategy will see the focus shift towards commercialising the new integrated service offering and exploiting AI partnership opportunities, ahead of OptiMAL and OptiPhage. We

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 22 May 23

22nd May 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 25 May 23

25th May 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Funding the opportunity in medical imaging

On 18 April Kromek announced a major seven-year agreement with a Tier 1 OEM to develop and incorporate its CZT-based detectors in the OEM’s advanced medical imaging scanners, and further deals have since followed. In order to fund these opportunities, on 5 May the Group announced a fund-raise of £8m (gross). It is our assumption that the Tier 1 OEM segment targeted is the CT scanner market. This was worth an estimated US$6.7bn in 2022 and, at a 5.6% CAGR, is expected to reach US$9.92bn by 2029.

Cenkos: Creo Medical Group Plc -- Lung: First in human completed

Creo Medical has announced the successful completion of the first in human use of its MicroBlate Flex device to ablate a lung lesion, undertaken at the Royal Brompton Hospital, London. The patient was treated as part of the recently announced human clinical study aimed at demonstrating the safety and efficacy of its MicroBlate Flex device for the microwave ablation of lung lesions accessed minimally invasively via a bronchoscope. We believe this procedure represents a significant milestone for C

Avon Protection - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Avon Protection (AVON), Osirium Technologies (OSI), IQE (IQE), Kopy Goldfields (KOBY) and RhoVac (ROHVAC). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.