OptiBiotix ("OPTI") recently announced a number of new commercial agreements for marketed functional food ingredients SlimBiome and LP-LDL. These new agreements take the number of commercial deals for both products to 57 and include a mixture of new distribution and manufacturing agreements, not only increasing the number of countries where products containing OPTI's ingredients are sold to over 70, but are also anticipated to improve profitability through the renegotiation of manufacture deals which provide OPTI with greater control over the value chain. OPTI's ability to continue to sign commercial agreements despite the ongoing disruption related to the COVID-19 crisis is impressive, in our opinion, and the company continues to build momentum in a year when we expect existing agreements to start generating substantial revenue streams. We maintain our OUTPERFORM recommendation, trimming our target price to GBp 93 (from GBp 97).
Companies: OptiBiotix Health PLC
OptiBiotix ("OPTI") has had a strong start to 2020, with partners Agropur (US), Holland & Barrett (UK) and most recently Alfasigma (Italy) launching new products containing the company's microbiome-modulating functional ingredients. As an increasing number of products move to market, we remain positive as to the commercial potential of OPTI's functional ingredients as consumer awareness grows. The recent launches indicate growing momentum into 2020, when we expect existing agreements to start delivering substantial revenue streams and further demand for OPTI's products. We reiterate both our OUTPERFORM recommendation and 97p target price, based on our view that OPTI is at the beginning of a long-term revenue growth cycle.
OptiBiotix ("OPTI") has announced that Holland & Barrett, a global nutritional food and supplement retailer, has launched a new product range under the SlimBiome brand. The weight management products, which contain OPTI's proprietary weight management formulation, will initially be available on the Holland & Barrett website and physical stores in the United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland, Netherlands, Belgium and Sweden. The deal marks the 22nd commercial partnership for SlimBiome and the first with a major retailer, further validating SlimBiome's potential in the c.$25bn dietary weight management market. We note the significance of the SlimBiome brand being marketed by a global market player, further enhancing brand awareness among both consumers and other potential partners.
OptiBiotix announced that it had signed three commercialisation deals for its weight loss ingredient SlimBiome, one of its two marketed functional food ingredients. These take the total number of commercial deals for SlimBiome to 20 and are an important step towards further expanding the product's geographical reach and hence sales. We expect revenues from SlimBiome to reach nearly £1m in FY2020E, which we believe is conservative, and >£11m by 2024E, driven by growing sales of existing deals and new deals. OPTI is also generating revenues from its cholesterol-lowering probiotic LP-LDL and we expect two further products, SweetBiotix (calorie-free fibre for sugar replacement) and LP-GOS (prebiotic that enhances the effect of LP-LDL) to start generating first sales in 2020E, yielding combined portfolio sales of >£40m in 2024E. We maintain our OUTPERFORM recommendation, based on our view that OPTI is at the beginning of a long-term revenue growth cycle.
MJ Hudson Group PLC, the financial services support provider to Alternatives fund managers and asset owners, is planning an AIM IPO. Deal details TBC but expected admission date mid-December.
Companies: KP2 KP2 RENE DUKE HYR TRMR SECG PVR OPTI ESL
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Full-year results were 4% above expectations, with revenues and adjusted pre-tax profit rising 21% and 27%, respectively, boosted in part by acquisitions in FY 2018 and 2019 but also from COVID-19 related buying, particularly Cache surface disinfection products. We raise FY 2021 adjusted pre-tax profit by 3% to £7.2m and introduce FY 2022 forecasts, which point to c.11% EPS growth. FY 2021 growth is held back by the stated c.£0.75m commitment to developing a fuller pipeline of products to take to the FDA/EPA and Canada Health. We view this as a strong endorsement of the progress that has been made to date. We also lift our target price to 500p on the back of a small FY 2021 upgrade and outlook for growth in 2022, supported by renewed commitment and resourcing for North American regulatory approvals.
Companies: Tristel Plc
Venture Life aims to become a global leader in the self-care branded product market, where there are a number of structural growth drivers. It has a unique and scalable platform to develop, manufacture and distribute products, including its own brands and international customers’ brands. What is already a high margin business is poised to deliver a compelling mixture of top line growth with significant operating leverage. Performance in H1 (EBITDA +347%) highlights the potency of VLG’s model. Acquisitions can also leverage the platform to drive growth, and management has a very strong track record here. On top of this exciting growth play, there is also a chance that its Dentyl dual-action mouthwash could have applications to slow/reduce CV19 transmission, adding to the upside potential.
Companies: Venture Life Group Plc
Synairgen has raised £80m to fund a Phase III trial for SNG001 in COVID-19 disease, which is due to commence in Q4 2020 and will be run globally by Parexel, with results expected in Q2 2021, and scale up manufacturing. This follows a successful pre-IND meeting with the FDA, which provided the guidance to commence such a study. Assuming that this trial replicates the results seen in the 100-patient Phase II trial, we would expect Emergency Use Approval (EUA) to follow shortly thereafter. Meanwhile, the Managed Access Programme (MAP) in the UK and Europe, run by Clinigen, could generate early commercial revenues. We have made adjustments to forecasts to reflect these costs and raise our SOTP rNPV target price to 420p, which could rise further should stockpiling orders be received.
Companies: Synairgen plc
IXICO has provided a trading update for the fiscal year to 30 September 2020, expecting revenues of £9.5m, up 26% and ahead of our current £9.1m estimate. EBITDA is expected to be at least in line with our £1.1m forecast. This represents the fourth consecutive year of +25% revenue growth and a period over which EBITDA has progressed from -£2.1m (FY16A) to +£1.1m. FY21E revenues and beyond are underpinned by an order book which has increased by c£5.8m over the year supported by new contracts booked of over £15m, approximately twice the amount booked in FY19A. We believe IXICO is a strong position to deliver ongoing growth and we maintain our Buy recommendation.
Companies: IXICO Plc
SkinBioTherapeutics is making strong progress towards the first commercialisation and associated revenues from its skin microbiome technology platform. The company has partnered its two lead programmes and is in discussions to partner its third commercial channel. We believe SkinBioTherapeutics could report its first revenues during FY22E and given the company's relatively low cost base, could achieve operating breakeven in the near-term. To support its progress to commercialising its products, the company has announced it has conditionally raised £4m (gross) via an equity raise. We maintain our Buy recommendation.
Companies: SkinBioTherapeutics Plc
Hemogenyx Pharmaceuticals (HEMO.L): Presentation at American Society of Hematology meeting | IXICO plc (IXI.L): FY20 Trading update | Shield Therapeutics (STX.L): Patent dispute update
Companies: HEMO IXI STX
As part of its drive to develop a portfolio of pipeline development projects addressing diseases of economic importance in pigs and poultry, ECO has announced it has entered into two novel vaccine development and exclusive global licensing deals with The Pirbright Institute and The Vaccine Group. Both address PRRS virus, which is one of the most economically damaging diseases to the global pig industry, costing it over $2bn annually in the US and Europe. The projects will both enter 18 month discovery and proof of concept phases, at the end of which they will enter full development if successful. No change to forecasts, but further evidence the ECO is building a potentially highly valuable portfolio of products around the core Aivlosin franchise.
Companies: ECO Animal Health Group plc
Aided by a strong improvement in trading in the core business and ongoing demand for the Primestore MTM device, EKF has indicated it is on track for a record monthly performance in October. In addition, Primestore MTM has recently been successfully evaluated by Public Health England in a peer-reviewed comparative study, which concluded it was the only commercially available sample collection device where no residual virus was detectable out of 23 tested. We believe this may bode well for wider UK market adoption in future. Having upgraded several times already this year, we make no further changes to our estimates, but continue to see sensitivity to the upside.
Companies: EKF Diagnostics Holdings plc
Synairgen reported interim results to 30 June in which the adjusted net loss was £3.9m with period-end cash of £10.9m. A fuller analysis and disclosure of the Phase II trial of inhaled interferon (SNG001) in hospitalised COVID-19 patients confirms the earlier optimism we had at the time of its first headline disclosure in July. The announcement that Clinigen is to launch a Managed Access Program (MAP) in the UK and Europe for SNG001 is a significant step enabling treatment of hospitalised COVID-19 patients under certain circumstances ahead of regulatory approval. With plans to scale manufacturing to c.100,000 treatment courses per month in 2021, Synairgen is clear in its ambitions. Based on pricing points for Rebif and Avonex and Gilead’s remdesivir, future supplies suggest significant potential revenues in 2021. We leave forecasts unchanged for the time being until we have greater visibility over the uptake of the MAP as well as the regulatory path. We reiterate our price target of 360p.
Full-year results to 31 March were in line with the trading update at the time of the recent fundraise (£10.5m net), with revenues, adjusted pre-tax loss from the continuing businesses and year-end net debt of £9.8m (+12%), £0.4m and £0.8m, respectively. The company is fully funded to exploit the emerging COVID-19 diagnostic testing opportunities. Despite the disruption to its Food intolerance business in Q1 FY 2021, we still expect strong growth and a profitable FY 2021, with multiple value inflections points (WHO prequalification for VISITECT CD4, UK-RTC lateral flow COVID-19 antibody test CE marking and Chinese approval for Food Detective self-test) and subsequent orders determining the actual outcome, with potential upside to forecasts. We leave our forecasts unchanged for the time being and our target price under review.
Companies: Omega Diagnostics Group PLC
SDI reported full-year results to 30 April that were slightly ahead (+2%) of the trading update issued by the company on 23 April with net debt of £4.0m comparing favourably to our forecast of £4.3m. Underlying organic growth of 3.7% organic growth, despite the COVID-19 disruption in Q4, was supplemented by growth from acquisitions in FY 2019 and FY 2020. Adjusted pre-tax profit rose 44% to £4.3m with adjusted EPS up 21% to 3.4p. Net debt at 30 April was £4.0m. With evidence of trading activity normalising and the positive outlook statement, indicating adjusted pre-tax profit to be at least as good as FY 2019, we reinstate forecasts. We re-introduce a target price of 100p, which implies the stock trading on FY 2021 P/E of 27.5x falling to 24.6x in FY 2022 – in line with its peer group (e.g. Judges Scientific which trades on 33.8x, falling to 27.5x for slightly lower growth) and underpinned by a FY 2020 free cashflow yield of 3.2%.
Companies: SDI Group plc
Novacyt (NCYT.L): R&D update
Companies: Novacyt SAS
Whilst headline H1 revenue growth of 23% is eye-catching, for us the most comforting factor is the robust performance of the underlying business in the most challenging of circumstances. Sales of the Primestore MTM sample collection device contributed £6.5m, meaning the core business was -8% in the period, well ahead of internal expectations. Highlights include strong performances from BhB, DiaSpect Tm and the Clinical Chemistry portfolio, all of which grew revenues in the period. Whilst there were challenges in certain geographies, this is a very creditable performance and testament to the strength and defensiveness of the core business. We make no further change to our forecasts at this stage, having upgraded regularly in recent months. Given we have only included firm orders for Primestore up until the end of this month, we remain confident further upgrades are likely for the rest of this year and into next. In the meantime, latent growth potential in the core business is building with, inter alia, Chinese approval of Quo-Test, strong momentum with DiaSpect Tm, the Trellus health investment and a variety of contract manufacturing orders in the Central Lab/Life Sciences segment adding to the medium term growth outlook. Given the continuing scope for upgrades, we continue to see upside potential in the shares – EKF remains one of our Best Ideas for 2020 (up 66% YTD).
Having navigated the challenge of running a clinical trial during a global pandemic, Destiny has blossomed in mid-2020. It is on track to announce topline Phase 2b results for XF-73 in the prevention of post-surgical infections in Q1 2021. It has also expanded its pipeline to span the two most contemporary issues in biotech – the microbiome and the prevention of COVID-19 infections. Destiny’s interim financials demonstrate its continued prudent financial management that underpins these achievements against the backdrop of Covid-19.
Companies: Destiny Pharma Plc
Interim results to 30 June 2020 showed a 38% increase in revenues, despite COVID-related disruption to clinical trials, illustrating the clear commercial focus that has been brought to bear on its range of digital technologies and solutions. Together with an 18% reduction in operating expenses, adjusted LBITDA and pre-tax loss improved by £1.3m to -£0.29m and -£0.36m, respectively. Period-end cash was £1.96m, with cash burn falling £1.1m to £0.2m in the period. Break-even in Q4 2020 is still anticipated. The contracted order book increased 35% to c.£10m at 31 August (vs. 30 June 2020), providing increased visibility of revenues in H2 and FY 2021 (c.108% and 57% of current forecasts, respectively). Due to the changing working patterns that are emerging as a result of the COVID pandemic, we believe that Cambridge Cognition is well positioned to be a long-term beneficiary of the trend of running virtual trials. We leave forecasts unchanged, but in light of the strong order book and potential for future upgrades, we raise target to 80p, which implies a 2021 EV/sales multiple of 3.4x.
Companies: Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc
