After an eventful 2020, ReNeuron released updated 12-month Phase ll data in January on its lead human retinal progenitor cell (hRPC) project. This continues to show a consistent and robust, sustained average gain in visual acuity in retinitis pigmentosa (RP). A continuation study in nine patients using two million cells is underway with three- and six-month data due over H2 CY21 and the first three patients treated. This will facilitate partnering negotiations. A pivotal hRPC study may start in 2022. Deals are possible in CY21 on the exosome genetic drug delivery platform, which could be very valuable. The valuation remains at £190m with strong cash.
Companies: ReNeuron Group plc
ReNeuron’s Dec’20 £17.5m raise now means the Group is sufficiently funded through key upcoming milestones for its lead hRPC candidate and the exosome platform – mitigating a previous pivotal issue. 2021 could promise to be the critical year for the Group, with the potential to unlock value from its programmes well beyond its current modest market value. We refresh our forecasts post yesterday’s analyst briefing, and reiterate our positive stance.
ReNeuron is focused on human retinal progenitor cell therapy (hRPC) for retinitis pigmentosa (RP). Ongoing Phase IIa data show a stable average gain in visual acuity. A nine-patient continuation Phase IIa study is underway at a higher dose. A placing of £15m and an open offer of up to £2.5m at 70p/share, totalling up to £17.5m before costs, are planned to give at least 18 months cash to complete the Phase IIa, potentially initiate a pivotal study in H2 CY22 and progress preclinical exosome and other cell therapy projects. The valuation is adjusted to £190m, formerly £170m.
ReNeuron Group (RENE.L): Interim results
ReNeuron, a UK-based stem-cell therapy developer, has announced today a fundraising of up to £17.5m (gross) through the means of a placing, subscription and open offer. The Company has also announced its FY’21E interim results as well as the latest data from its lead candidate hRPC in the ongoing Phase I/IIa clinical trial for Retinitis Pigmentosa (RP). The additional funding aims to provide liquidity for the next 18 months, and through key clinical development milestones for the hRPC programme and exosome collaborations. **** As joint broker to ReNeuron, we are restricted and can therefore provide factual comment only. Shareholder approval for the transaction will be sought at the General Meeting to be held on the 11th December 2020 ****
IQ-AI (IQAI.L): Launch of IB Trax technology | ReNeuron Group (RENE.L): AGM Trading Update
Companies: IQ-AI Limited (IQAI:LON)ReNeuron Group plc (RENE:LON)
In the positive trading update today, ReNeuron announced that patient dosing has commenced in the US in the expanded Phase IIa clinical trial for the lead hRPC candidate for Retinitis Pigmentosa (RP). We are pleased to see the trial is under away given the backdrop, and we expect data from the expanded cohort over the next 12 months. This data alongside previously announced highly positive hRPC data aims to be sufficient for ReNeuron to seek regulatory approval in H2 2021 to commence a single pivotal clinical study programme (i.e. potentially one trial off regulatory approval). A milestone that could pave the way for licensing agreements. We continue to believe the hRPC programme is highly novel programme that is differentiated against peers, and we forecast peak global sales potential of £880m. We also note that ReNeuron has signed its fourth research evaluation agreement with a leading biotech to evaluate the use of ReNeuron’s exosomes for the delivery of novel therapeutics. Whilst these deals are initial modest, they aim to produce proof-of-concept data that could pave the way to more lucrative licensing agreements for the exosome technology. Lastly, after the retirement of John Berriman, it was announced that Dr Tim Corn will become Chairman heading a significantly leaner Board. We make no forecast changes and reiterate our intrinsic value implied from our valuation analysis of 177p/share.
ReNeuron has refocussed onto its human retinal progenitor cell (hRPC) as shown in the last business update and in the FY20 results. hRPC, now the lead project, show a consistent and robust sustained averaged response at the one million cell dose. The next dose level, two million cells in nine patients, could start this autumn. A pivotal study could be initiated in 2022. ReNeuron is starting to create multiple partnering opportunities from its core technologies. We have revised our valuation to £170m from £107m.
ReNeuron is a developer of stem cell therapies, with its lead human retinal progenitor cells (hRPC) candidate undergoing a Phase IIa study for the rare and progressive eye disease, Retinitis Pigmentosa (RP). In this note, we make forecast changes in response to the company’s strategic shift, cover recent competitor data for RP, and provide details on the exosome platform. Our valuation analysis has refocused solely on the hRPC programme, and implies an intrinsic value of 177p/share (vs. 310p/share).
AEX Gold (AEXG.L) has joined AIM alongside a £42.5m placing at 45p. Mkt Cap £79.7m. The Company, led by CEO Eldur Ólafsson, has established the largest land package of gold assets in Greenland with a current portfolio of licences covering 3,356 square kilometres, in the two known gold belts in Southern Greenland, the Nanortalik and Tartoq gold belts. Nalunaq is a high-grade gold asset with an updated Inferred Mineral Resource covering 422,770 tonnes at 18.5 grams per tonne of gold, or 250,970 ounces of gold, which covers the area in and around the historical mine. AEX has an existing listing on the TSX Venture Exchange
Companies: PYC THR PRP GDP YOU BBB MRL ONC RENE
Synairgen (SNG.L): Positive results from trial of SNG001 in hospitalised COVID-19 patients | ANGLE plc (AGL.L): Study published by University of Southern California | ReNeuron Group (RENE.L): Preliminary results
Companies: SNG AGL RENE
ReNeuron has announced its FY’20 prelim results for the 12-month period ending 31 March 2020. In the period, Revenue & other income for the period was £6.1m (vs. £0.0 in September 2019), principally made up of £6.0m received from Fosun Pharma as an initial gross license fee. We expect smaller milestones payments from Fosun Pharma in FY’21 and FY’22. R&D expenditure of £16.3m (vs. £16.2m prior year; vs. historic N+1 Singer estimate of £21.5m last published 29th June 2020) is lower than anticipated primarily related to the slower recruitment of the Stroke trial and the Covid-19 disruption to clinical trials previously flagged in April. Operating losses was £14.4m (vs £18.2m prior year; vs N+1 Singer’s £20.7m), and the reported cash position at period end was £12.6m (vs. £21.3m 30 Sept 2019). The Group has previously indicated cash runway until early 2021.
ReNeuron has released further follow-up data from the ongoing human retinal progenitor cell (hRPC) trial, which shows a robust sustained averaged response. This data set completes the six-month data on eight patients and extends, for one individual, to 18 months, who showed a good net gain. The next dose level, two million cells in nine patients, remains delayed due to COVID-19. A filing to start a pivotal study is expected in the second half of CY21. Our indicative value remains at £107m.
Hemogenyx (HEMO.L): Agreement with GlobalCo (from Friday) | ReNeuron Group (RENE.L): Positive data from ongoing Phase 2 retinal cell therapy trial
Companies: HemoGenyx Pharmaceuticals Plc (HEMO:LON)ReNeuron Group plc (RENE:LON)
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OptiBiotix operates in the human microbiome market and we see the company at an interesting strategic inflection point, with developing revenues generated from its lead products and showing commercial traction with the next generation of products. We expect the company to generate value from both sets of products and see additional upside from its holding in SkinBioTherapeutics. With increasing interest being shown in targeting the human microbiome to improve health, OptiBiotix is well positioned in the market and initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation.
Companies: OptiBiotix Health PLC
The UK market showed a continued recovery in the first quarter albeit the indices are still well short of their all-time peaks, unlike many of their international peers. The FTSE 100 has risen by 1,186 points (21.4%) since the end of October and the FTSE 250 by 4,304 points (25.0%). The comparable performance since the start of the year is less spectacular- the FTSE 100 has risen by 253 points (3.9%) and the FTSE 250 has risen by 1,070 points (5.0%). The factors behind the sustained rally are familiar. The belief that the roll-out of the vaccine and some relaxation of lockdown limitations will lead to a significant economic recovery, compared to the collapse seen in the first half of 2020, due to lockdowns. Indeed, the recent economic picture is becoming more optimistic than previous expectations. According to the ONS, the economy grew a little more than initially estimated in Q4 last year. This means GDP for 2020 as a whole contracted by 9.8%, revised up marginally but still the worst contraction on record. Markets, in general, have focused upon the potential scope and extent of the recovery. The sectors and stocks that have outperformed have been seen as ‘recovery’ plays with a rotation from stocks seen as ‘lockdown’ winners into those set to benefit from the ‘unlocking of society’ and/or exposed to the consumer. We expect 2021 will continue to be a “stock-picker’s” market. The sharp increase in the household savings ratio in Q4 highlights the scope for a recovery driven by expenditure. As further lockdown limitations are lifted, evidence of this growth will help to underpin the more optimistic outlook for Q2 and beyond.
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BAG BVC BEG BONH BLVN BRSD CML CWK CRPR EYE ECHO FDM FAR FA/ GPH GSF HUW INSE JDG KAPE KP2 MACF MPAC MNZS NESF NBI OTMP OBD PREM QFI RUA SCS SEN SOS SUR TON TOU TXP TGL TCN UEM VLS WYN
Oncimmune has announced two separate substantial agreements with Roche and CedarsSinai to use the newly developed Infectious Disease panel to provide antibody and autoantibody profiling. Both agreements are with existing customers and highlight a deepening relationship with partners. In particular, it shows that value Roche see in the service with Roche now using the service across oncology, autoimmune (Genentech) and infectious disease areas. The announcement also adds continued support for the ImmunoINSIGHTS service platform and an early indication of the strong demand in the pipeline following the £9m equity raise in March. We believe the announcement is confirmatory to our recently upgraded post-raise estimates for FY’21 (May 21 Y/E) and FY’22, and make no changes to our estimates at this time.
Companies: Oncimmune Holdings Plc
In the past few weeks, all the listed multi-national pharmaceutical companies have reported results for 2020, which has given us the opportunity to update our industry statistics and drug database. This report provides the first, snapshot publication of global and US rankings of the top 20 drug companies for 2020. Comparisons are made with historical data to show how different company strategies have evolved. In addition, summary analysis has been provided for the sales evolution of therapeutic biopharmaceutical drugs, which saw sales rise 5.6% to $245bn, representing 26% of the market, driven by antibody-derived drugs.
Companies: AVO ARIX BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PXC RECI STX SCE TRX VTA YEW
The Budget offered a clear picture of the state of the economy. Put simply, the economy will be 3% smaller in three years’ time than it would have been without the impact of the pandemic. However, it is forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022, six months earlier than previously thought. The OBR forecasts that the UK economy will grow by 4.1% in 2021, (lower than the 5.5% outlined in November 2020). It has set its GDP forecasts in 2022, 2023 and 2024 at 7.3%, 1.7% and 1.6%. Positively, we have a continuation of substantial support for various parts of the economy – totalling £350bn. The market may focus on two elements. Under the so-called “super-deduction scheme, businesses which invest in the next two years will be able to claim 130% of the cost against their tax bill. This is significant but also significant is the proposed increase in corporation tax on profits from 19% to 25% in 2023. This has material consequences. Looking that far ahead is not straightforward. The increased tax charge will inevitably impact ratings. This may not be a consideration currently but may become one as more FY2023 estimates are introduced. Closer to home, we have continued to see most results/updates in line with expectations. An increasing number of companies have restored dividends. M&A across a broad range of sectors also looks set to continue.
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BVC BEG BRSD BWNG CBOX CTG CLG CML CWK EYE ECHO EML ESC FBD FA/ GSF HTWS INSE JDG MACF MTW NESF NAVF NSF NBI OTMP PCF PPC QFI SAVE SEN SNX TGL UTL VLS WYN
OVID-19 is presenting an incremental revenue opportunity to Diaceutics. Testing data in this area is highly valuable and an initial contract win has been announced. The market is recovering from the hiatus seen last year and Diaceutics has a unique capability of solving the disconnect between laboratories and precision medicine marketing.
Companies: Diaceutics Plc
Having upgraded several times in the year, EKF’s FY20 results are as expected and show a step change in the performance of the business. Whilst this has been catalysed by the pandemic and sales of sample collection devices, the core business has held up relatively well and is showing an encouraging return to growth in Q1. The main new news this morning is a significant multi-year, multi-million dollar contract expansion for sample collection devices with a multinational private sector partner. We push through further material upgrades to FY21E revenue and PBT of 23% & 40% respectively and see further upgrade potential if demand persists and continues to grow.
Companies: EKF Diagnostics Holdings plc
Cambridge Cognition reported FY 2020 results that were in line with its trading update on 19 January; revenues of £6.7m (+34%) and an adjusted pre-tax loss of £0.6m (vs. -£3.0m in 2019), having traded profitably in Q4. Net cash at year-end was £3.0m. Whilst we leave forecasts unchanged, we increase our target price to 125p, which implies a 2021E EV/Sales multiple of 4.3x and signals our confidence in the company meeting these forecasts: this is in line with other health tech companies and reflects the positive start to FY 2021, the development of its order backlog from 31 December and the increasing interest in its digital solutions. This excludes the potential value from any of the larger partnership deals that remain under active discussion. As further evidence for long-term, high-margin software licence-based revenues emerges, we see scope for additional valuation upside, evidenced by a number of digital health tech companies trading on 5-12x EV/Sales (e.g., Kooth, Diaceutics and Sensyne Health).
Companies: Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc
Today’s interims is the latest evidence that the strategic progress made in 2020 is translating into financial results and improved fundamentals. Headline H1 revenue growth of 593% vs. H1’20 and 259% vs. the entire of FY’20 is eye-catching (albeit from a low base), but for us the encouraging factor is that this performance is on a much leaner cost base with losses in the period significantly narrowing. We believe this is the first step along a path towards sustainable growth and profitability, and we are confident in the management’s ability to meet our forecasts and make no changes to our numbers at this stage. We reiterate our view of Oncimmune as one of our Best Ideas for 2021.
tinyBuild— a leading video games publisher and developer with global operations. tinyBuild's strategic focus is in creating longlasting IP by partnering with video games developers, establishing a stable platform on which to build multi-game and multimedia franchises is to join AIM. Offer details TBC. Due mid-March. AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. Cellular Goods a UK-based provider of premium consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids announced its intention to join the main market (standard). Has raised £13M in an oversubscribed placing. £25m mkt cap. Due 26 Feb. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5m. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7m. Targeting March Admission. Virgin Wines UK Plc has out their plans for an AIM IPO. Virgin Wines is a direct-to-consumer online wine retailer that sells products to retail customers in the UK through two subscription schemes and a pay-as-you-go offering. The Group also sells a range of beers and spirits and operates a B2B sales channel for corporates. Anticipated mkt cap £110m. Raising £13m in new money and vendor sale of £34.9m . Due 2nd March. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo, are expecting to release their IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.
Companies: YEW IKA UPR WYN ENW BWNG TRAK DBOX HZM G4M
PensionBee, the online pensions provider, with a mission to make pensions simple, so that everyone can look forward to a happy retirement, considering an IPO on the High Growth Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. PensionBee is a leading online pensions provider in the UK, with approximately 130,000 Active Customers and £1.5 billion of assets under administration , in each case as at 28 February 2020. Cornerstone FS to join AIM, an SME focused, cloud-based provider of international payment, currency risk management and electronic account services focused on removing the complexity of international payments for customers. Raising £2.2m. Mkt Cap £12.3m. Due 6 April. Imperial X (AQSE:IMPP) to join the Main Market (standard). It is also proposed that on Admission to the Official List, the Company will change its name to Cloudbreak Discovery Plc. With effect from Admission, Imperial X will hold equity positions and royalties in a variety of projects in the natural resources sector across multiple jurisdictions, primarily in the Americas and Africa. The Company is proposing to raise up to £1.5m by way of placing of new Ordinary Shares to support further prospect acquisitions. Current Mkt cap £4.7m Expected April 2021. Parsley Box, the direct to consumer provider of ready meals to the 60+ demographic, recently announced its AIM IPO plans. Parsley Box provides ready meals, which are not required to be stored in a fridge or freezer, have a shelf life of up to six months and are cooked in minutes. The company reported revenue of £24.4m for the financial year ended 31 December 2020 (unaudited). Deal details TBC and admission is expected to occur late March/ early April 2021. ActiveOps, a UK-based leader in Management Process Automation (MPA), providing a SaaS platform to large enterprises with complex and often global back-offices is planning to join AIM. Details TBA. Due late March. Proposed move to AIM from the main market (standard) by Emmerson (EML.L) to provide Emmerson with access to a market and environment which is more suited, in the Board's view, to the Company's current size and strategy ahead of pivotal period for the Company with the commencement of mine construction at the Khemisset Potash Project expected by end of 2021. Follows recent award of Mining Licence granting Emmerson exclusive right to develop and mine the potash deposit and £5.5m raise to fund ongoing project development work. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. Deliveroo has applied for admission of the Company's Shares to the standard listing segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the main market of the London Stock Exchange. Deliveroo works with over 115,000 best loved restaurants, takeaways and grocery stores globally and provide work to over 100,000 riders across 800 locations in 12 markets, serving 6m customers globally. The price range for the Offer has been set at £3.90 to £4.60 per Share, implying an estimated market capitalization at Admission of between £7.6 billion and £8.8 billion. Raising c. £1bn. Due 7 April
Companies: ADME AQX BLCC ANR HSP BPC TON FOX FDBK ALNOV
Doctor Care Anywhere (DOC) is a fast-growing telehealth company focused on the private healthcare sector. 2020 was a transformational year for the company: it signed up major new partners, listed on the ASX, delivered triple-digit revenue and KPI growth and ended 2020 with strong balance sheet (£38.4m in net cash). We believe DOC is well placed to continue to grow by executing on management’s expansion strategy of increasing its activated customer base, developing new services and expanding into Europe and Asia. DOC currently trades at a significant discount to its peers, which we believe will narrow as the company builds up a track record on the market and executes on its growth potential.
Companies: Doctor Care Anywhere Group PLC Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 sh
Polarean Imaging (POLX.L): New system order | e-therapeutics (ETX.L): Results for six months ended 31 July 2020
Companies: Polarean Imaging Plc (POLX:LON)e-Therapeutics plc (ETX:LON)
Novacyt recently announced a positive trading update for the year ended 31 December 2020 (FY20E). The update outlined the significant demand for the Group’s COVID-19 test offering over the period. Sales have resulted in a surge in revenues for FY20E which is 24- fold higher than FY19A revenues (€13.1m) and exceeded our estimates by €23.8m (SP Angel FY20E: €287.8m).
Companies: Novacyt SAS
Although GSK witnessed a sales recovery in Q4, fresh lockdowns meant the top line was still in the red – Consumer Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals were the key drags, though Vaccines posted a strong show. Given the COVID-19-related disruptions, management anticipates a soft H1 21 with normality guided for H2. Ergo, the FY21 EPS is seen mid-to-high single-digit lower (vs. FY20: -4%). The spin-off of Consumer Healthcare remains on track for FY22 but a couple of recent R&D setbacks raise questions over the company’s innovation/acquisition capabilities.
Companies: GlaxoSmithKline plc