Hybridan Small Cap Feast 27/10/22

Dish of the day Joiners: Unicorn Mineral Resources (UMR) has joined the Standard Segment of the Main Market. Unicorn Mineral Resources plc is an Irish exploration company, incorporated on 25 March 2010. Unicorn’s focus is to explore for zinc in Ireland, and the Company has been working on several license blocks since 2010. It has targeted the highly prospective Limerick Basin. Unicorn raised £930k at 10 pence per share. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Ithaca Energ

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 18/05/22

Dish of the day Joiners: Lekoil, the oil and gas exploration and production Company with a focus on Nigeria and West Africa has joined the Access Segment of the AQSE Growth Market. The Company was previously listed on AIM (LEK.L), however, Ordinary Shares have been suspended from trading on AIM since October 2021. Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Psych Capital PLC, intends to list on the AQSE Growth Market. Psych operates the Psych Platform (a business-to-business ne

PPHE Hotel Group - Checking back in

PPHE has accompanied news of continued strong leisure-based recovery with an EPRA NAV per share of £20.85 at June 2021, almost unchanged in H121 despite COVID-19 restrictions, highlighting the company’s resilience from a property perspective. Encouragingly, the recent joint venture on prime London assets (Riverbank and art’otel hoxton) not only endorsed this valuation (44% premium to current share price), but also released £114m for future growth to management with an impressive development reco

PPHE Hotel Group - Phased recovery expected

PPHE’s FY20 results demonstrate how well management has managed operating costs and cash in what is described as ‘the most testing year’. Management enters FY21 with a confident message on liquidity and its commitment to medium-term development plans. The success of vaccination roll-outs produces a more favourable outlook than for some time. Management points to an ‘encouraging early uplift’ in demand in the UK following the new timetable for easing restrictions and early signs of potential reco

PPHE Hotel Group - Leisure demand recovering

PPHE’s H120 results, more notably those from Q220, reflect the full impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on demand, and the substantial progress that management has made in managing the cost base and cash burn. Demand from the leisure sector has returned relatively strongly but the rate of potential recovery in business travel remains uncertain. In recent weeks, the group’s average occupancy level of c 35% is above the 30% required for operational break-even with government support for jobs and business

PPHE Hotel Group - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on ADMIE Holdings (ADMIE), AJ Lucas Group (AJL), Australis Capital (AUSA), Elbit Medical Technologies (EMTC), Focusrite (TUNE) and PPHE Hotel Group (PPH). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website.

PPHE Hotel Group - Managing costs well in tough environment

The travel bans and quarantines due to COVID-19 have had a significant impact on PPHE since mid-March and are likely to continue to do so. We now expect a deeper and longer downturn than previously and a slower recovery, so we reduce our forecasts for occupancy for FY20, while holding our prior EBITDA margin assumptions reflecting cost cutting and a high level of government support on key costs. We downgrade FY20 revenue by c 32% and EBITDA by c 29%. The shares are trading at a c 54% discount to

Small Cap Feast

PPHE Hotel Group - Cost cutting for uncertain times

The trading update, following the update on 12 March 2020, highlights the expected drop in demand due to the COVID-19 virus, and strong actions by management to cut costs and preserve cash in the uncertain environment. We leave our forecasts unchanged following our recent downgrade of EBITDA for FY20e by 14%, but now assume no dividend payment in FY20, following the cut of the proposed final dividend for FY19 of 20p. The shares are trading at a discount of 68% to the EPRA NAV, and the majority o

PPHE Hotel Group - Elevated discount to NAV

PPHE’s FY19 results were in line with our expectations, with RevPAR outperformance in most markets in which it competes. FY20 looks a more challenging year due to the threats to travel from the outbreak of the coronavirus, as well as tough comparatives. The company has a history of outperforming its peers in good and tough markets and has the benefit of maturing room stock in key markets. In the long term, the development pipeline continues to look promising. We downgrade our EBITDA forecast for

PPHE Hotel Group - Encouraging end to the year

PPHE’s FY19 trading update is solid, meaning that management is confident of meeting expectations. FY19 like-for-like (l-f-l) room revenue growth of 6.3% follows 6.7% growth in FY18. At this stage, typically, detailed commentary on the performance at individual country level is limited. Management has indicated that trading is benefiting from the £100m investment programme, and therefore the key drivers of growth in FY19 were London and the Netherlands. FY20 will continue to benefit from the two

Small Cap Feast

Intention to float by Gemfields Group. No Capital Raise. Currently listed on JSE. (GML:JNB) at circa £122m. The Group's key producing assets, the Kagem emerald mine in Zambia (believed to be the world's single largest producing emerald mine) and the Montepuez ruby mine in Mozambique (one of the most significant recently discovered ruby deposits in the world), are both expected to have long mine-lives with potential for expansion. Also owns the Faberge brand. Due Valentines Day 2020.

PPHE Hotel Group - Sticking to the script

Q319 has seen PPHE deliver against a strong comparative (eg like-for-like rate-led RevPAR +4%). Unsurprisingly, given positive market reports (Q319 RevPAR +5%, per STR), London, PPHE’s largest profit source, has been the driver, boosted by maturing properties and the newly repositioned Holmes Hotel. The Netherlands has also traded well, with similar investment payoff, notably at the flagship Victoria Amsterdam. In its busiest period, Croatia defied competition to match record FY18 revenue thanks

Small Cap Feast

DNEG Limited One of the world's leading digital visual effects, animation and stereo conversion companies for feature film and television.The Offer will be comprised of new Shares to be issued by the Company (to raise expected gross proceeds of £150m). Admission is expected to take place in November 2019. Zaim Credit Systems— Zaim currently provides loans of up to Russian Roubles 30,000 (£375) to retail customers through its network of just over 95 sites predominantly in Moscow. Looking to rai

Small Cap Feast

Kaspi.kz, the largest Paym ents, Marketplace and Fintech Ecosystem in Kazakhstan w ith a leading m arket share in each of its key products and services, has postponed its Initial Public Offering due to unfavourable market conditions. Registration document approved for Helios Towers. The Group provides essential network services, flexible infrastructure solutions and reliable power supply to mobile network operators in five African growth economies. Revenue increased 7 per cent. year-on-year to U

Assessing the key investment & valuation dynamics

We view XP Factory as a genuine growth stock. In this detailed note we show how it is capitalising on the secular themes driving the competitive socialising sector and generating superior site returns, organic growth and customer reviews. This is further enhanced by a strong set of interims, with an acceleration of LFL over the summer and no change to FY Dec’23 expectations. Prospects of a healthy future is backed by our base case 3-year EBITDA CAGR of 44% on steady state expansion, which rises

Kitchen-sinking forecasts…and cash is still ok

ZOO today provides an update on H1 trading and as well, the full-year outlook the result being material changes to FY24 forecasts, while we withdraw FY25 estimates. The driving force behind these changes is a combination of factors; more cautionary customer spend (as SVOD platforms are placing greater emphasis on balancing growth and profit) while more recently, protracted industrial action has introduced yet further disruption. As such, H1 revenue is set to be materially down at c.$21m vs. $51m

Morning Note – 27 September 2023

Growing up fast

Interims to June are very encouraging, with sales +12% organic (and +68% stated) to £18.1m - reflecting material market outperformance, as Zinc’s strategy and execution is clearly bearing fruit. Further, with The Edge now embedded (and performing well) the Group now also carries significant greater scale, sector and geographic diversification and better margins too (at 41% vs. 33% in 1H22). Together, these provide competitive advantages in our view. With FY23 revenue visibility now £35m (as well

Cornerstone FS+ (CSFS, House Stock at 12.5p) - Disposal of another non-trading subsidiary

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 27 Sep 23

27th September 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment ob

SP Angel Technology: Cornerstone FS (CSFS.LN) - H1 2023 Strong Performance YTD

CSFS reported its financial results for the period ended 30 June 2023 with revenue of £3.6m and Adj. EBITDA of £0.2m, and profit before tax of £0.023m, in line with the trading update provided in May 2023, but well ahead of what our full year forecasts would indicate.

Morning Note – 25 September 2023

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 15-09-2023

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Announced ITF 12 July: Substrate Artificial Intelligence, an artificial intelligence company based in Spain that creates, buys and scales companies around AI in diverse sectors such as fintech, agritech, energy, human resources, and health, intends to join the Access Segment of the AQSE Growth Market. Admission delayed. Announced ITF 6 July: Blackpoint Biotech plc, a medical cannabinoids co

Big upgrades a function of non-cash lease accounting

There were no surprises in terms of FY23 EBITDA and net cash, both pre-reported. Non-cash treatment after IFRS16 right-of-use asset impairments has led to a substantial PBT/EPS beat, though, much of which feeds into FY24/FY25 forecasts with 78%/33% upgrades. This disguises a drop in underlying DPS cover and, as part of a capital distribution policy update, the final is reduced to 1.6p. This may disappoint some but has nothing to do with confidence in future prospects, and current trading is posi

LIBERUM: Safestay: Strong organic growth, acquisitions back on the horizon

Despite decent sales performance, profit warning spooks investors!

Kingfisher’s H1 FY23/24 lfl sales was 40bp ahead of market expectations but the PBT was 5.4% weaker. Although UK&I sales remained in the black, the performances in France and Poland were the pain-points. The Q3 lfl performance (to date) of -2.4% yoy is also below market expectations. We expect the pressure on earnings to continue during H2. Management has lowered FY23/24 PBT guidance to £590m (vs £634m earlier). We will reduce the target price by 7-8% but maintain our positive recommendation.

FY23 on track with further strategic progress

Interims show DPP is in good shape and responding positively to the new CEO’s actions. Order count is up (despite a soft macro backdrop), LFLs are strong and the proportion of stores transitioning to profitability is materially higher vs 12m ago. Strong summer trading in Poland and an easing of cost pressures underpin our decision to make no forecast changes FY23 being an inflection point in terms of moving into positive EBITDA (pre-IFRS16 basis). Overall, these interims are positive and support

Robust interims - on track for FY23

Tasty - Interim Results

Well-documented cost-of-living pressures continue to have a material impact on the casual dining sector, and Tasty is no exception. LFL sales rose +1.4% YoY in H1 to £21.7m, which was offset by material cost inflation (food, labour, utilities etc), leading to Adj EBITDA reducing to £1.1m (H1/22 £2.7m). Whilst trading conditions are likely to remain challenging in the near-term, we see grounds for optimism in FY24 – inflation is falling steadily and the Bank of England recently held interest rate