LIBERUM: MJ Gleeson* - Lower unit guidance after orders slowed

Prudently rebasing forecasts given market challenges

Today’s AGM update follows recent commentary from peers in highlighting the impact of market volatility on buyer confidence. There has been a significant slowdown in demand over the past six weeks, as evidenced by a reduction in reservation rates to 0.26 (prior year equivalent: 0.42) and an increase in cancellation rates to 41% (from 20% in the first ten weeks of the year). This period covers the eye of the storm of the mini-budget and it is therefore difficult to gauge the likely pace of recove

Record Results, Uniquely Positioned

Gleeson has delivered record results for FY22, having achieved its 2,000 home medium term target, as reported in July. Adjusted PBT increased by 33% to £55.5m, 5% ahead of our recently upgraded forecast. Demand remains strong, driven by the affordability of Gleeson’s homes and the chronic undersupply of good quality affordable housing. We nudge up our FY23 forecast (PBT +2%), confident in prospects for the year ahead. In our view, the shares offer compelling value, trading on a P/E of just 6x an

LIBERUM: MJ Gleeson* - High demand at low price points

Strong trading prompts full year upgrades

Following a mixed bag of industry updates last week (Persimmon and Vistry), Gleeson has confirmed a cracking conclusion to FY22. Full year results (to 30th June) are expected to be significantly ahead of expectations, driven by outperformance at Gleeson Homes. As reported on 1st July, the 2,000 home target has been achieved, with volume growth of 10.4% in FY22, which accelerated to 24% in H2. A higher average selling price (+14.7% to £167k) is better than expected, with a favourable impact on ma

LIBERUM: MJ Gleeson* - Upgrades on strong demand

2,000 Home Milestone Achieved

A brief year end update this morning confirms that Gleeson has hit its 2,000 home strategic target during FY22, as planned. This is a considerable achievement, representing a doubling of home sold over the past five years, a period which included the COVID pandemic. We make no changes to forecasts this morning, with a more detailed update due on 11th July. Against a sector that has de-rated materially, we note that Gleeson has particularly underperformed peers over the past month and its previou

CEO Succession

Gleeson has announced that James Thomson wishes to stand down as CEO on 31st December 2022, having implemented significant cultural and structural changes over the past three years to support the Group’s strategic objectives. He will remain on the Board as a Non-Executive Director and will be succeeded by Graham Prothero, currently COO of Vistry Group. He was formerly CEO of Galliford Try from 2019, having previously served as FD since 2013. In our view, Graham looks to be a very strong appointm

Signing the pledge

Following recent, extensive discussions between the housebuilding sector and the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, a resolution has now been reached. Gleeson, in common with other housebuilders, has signed a Pledge to perform or fund mitigation works on buildings over 11 metres to address life-critical fire safety issues, where they exist. The Pledge applies to buildings that the housebuilders themselves had some involvement in developing. Gleeson was involved in the developm

LIBERUM: MJ Gleeson* - More clad tidings

Strong Interims, upgrading expectations

Gleeson has reported a strong set of interims this morning, with 22% growth in revenue and PBT, reflecting strong demand within both divisions. Gleeson Homes is well on track to hit its 2000 home target this year whilst a higher than expected average selling price is driving margins and profitability. Gleeson Land, despite planning congestion, has also enjoyed a very profitable H1. The Board is confident that full year results will be ahead of previous expectations and new strategic medium term

LIBERUM: MJ Gleeson* - Upgrades on strong H1

LIBERUM: MJ Gleeson* - Positive read across from Gladman deal

H1 update - well on track for full year

Gleeson’s H1 update confirms a positive conclusion to Cal’21, reiterating full year expectations. A busy December saw a level of outperformance in terms of completions at Gleeson Homes (932 versus previous guidance of c.900) and site sales within Gleeson Land (two completed in December). The demand environment remains positive on both sides of the business, whilst industry challenges (in terms of supply chain and planning congestion) have been well managed. In our view, Gleeson is focused on the

LIBERUM: MJ Gleeson* - Uniqueness undervalued

Cenkos: Seeing Machines Ltd -- A tech unicorn its share price belies

We view Seeing Machines's recent deal with Magna as a game changing moment that signals the start of a period of significant value creation, cashing in on more than 20-years of technology development. The Magna deal takes away the balance sheet risk but also provides a highly motivated global Tier-1 partner with a track record in securing significant market shares. In our view its DMS/OMS rear-view mirror is the most competitive solution in the market and one that has been selected by VW and Hon

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 23/11/2022

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Kistos Holdings plc, intends to join AIM. The Company was incorporated to act as a new holding company for the group companies 0f Kistos plc (KIST), a holding company with the objective of creating value for its investors through the acquisition and management of companies or businesses in the energy sector. Anticipated Market Cap £327m. Expected 22 Dec 2022. AT85 Global Mid-Market Infrastr

Surface Transforms (SCE LN) - £100m contract win vs. near-term headwinds

Surface Transforms has announced a £100m contract with OEM 10, a major global automaker. The Group will be the sole supplier for two model variants, and discs will replace those of a key competitor on an earlier model variant, providing validation of Surface’s superior technology. Revenue from this contract will flow in 2025e. In contrast, current trading has been hit by production delays at OEM 8. Production is now restored but Surface has struggled to provide enough discs in a shortened period

LIBERUM: Accrol Group Holdings Plc* - Very strong first half

Surface Transforms - Trading update and OEM 10 contract win worth £100m

The group has announced the award of possibly its most significant contract to date worth £100m over six years for OEM 10, which takes its total contract value to £290m, and is an important validation by a leading automotive OEM that supplants its rival ceramic disc competitor. Its trading update highlights a recent short halt in production for OEM 8, with production now resumed and ramping up, reducing forecast FY22 revenues by £6.5m, with profits reduced by £3.6m. FY23 and FY24 forecasts are u

discoverIE - Well positioned for further growth in a changing world

Strong H1 results from discoverIE provide further evidence of the value of the group’s focus on the structurally growing markets of renewables, medical, transport and industrial & connectivity. H1 2023 sales were up +26% (+23% CER, +14% organic) and adj. EPS up +37%. Operating margins rose from 10.3% to 11.7%, evidencing rising value-add and the group’s ability to pass on the impact of inflation and supply chain issues. discoverIE’s components are essential to client projects but generally only

WH Ireland: Solid State (SOLI) - Follow on £9.8m NATO Defence Contract provides further order coverage for FY 2024E

Solid State is a specialist value added component supplier and design-in manufacturer of computing, power and communications products. Following on from last week's announcement of a £7.3m contract through the NATO Support and Procurement Agency to supply communications equipment to a defence customer (expected to be delivered in the current financial year), this morning, the group has announced a follow on contract worth £9.8m due for delivery in the year to 31 March 2024.

SHORE CAPITAL - N Brown Group+ (BWNG) - House Stock at 23p - Resignation of Chief Financial Officer

Morning Note – 22 November 2022

Cenkos: CAP-XX Ltd -- A$2.05m R&D rebate received

CAP-XX has announced that it has received a A$2.05m R&D tax rebate from the Australian Tax Office.

Morning Note – 23 November 2022

In-line interims, guidance unchanged

Victoria has reported underlying EBITDA of £100.1m that is in-line with October’s trading update. Revenues of £776m were ahead 59% (7.7% like-for-like organic growth) with significant impacts from acquisitions, namely the Balta carpets and rugs businesses, and inflationary price increases. Underlying PBT and diluted EPS were down 3.1% and 26% respectively. Despite on-going macro challenges, the Board has reaffirmed that it continues to be confident that synergy gains and other management actions

Cenkos: Seeing Machines Ltd -- First quarterly KPIs

Seeing Machines has published quarterly Key Performance Indicators for its quarter ended 30 September 2022. Cars on the road with its DMS technology were 559,302, representing an increase of 112,077 over the prior quarter. Guardian connections were 41,415 at the period end representing growth 1,523 units over the end of the prior quarter, with 9,698 units sold that have yet to be connected.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 24/11/2022

Dish of the day Joiners: One Health Group plc (AQSE: OHGR), joins the Apex segment of the AQSE Growth Market. The group provides medical services, in the form of elective surgical care, to support the NHS in the management of patients, through a growing network of community-based outreach clinics and independent hospitals. Market Cap on admission £15.05m. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Kistos Holdings plc, intends to join AIM. The Company was incorporated to act

Cenkos: CAP-XX Ltd -- Battery-Free and Wirelessly Powered IoT

CAP-XX has announced a partnership to develop solutions that combine Energous' WattUp technology with CAP-XX's high-performance supercapacitors. The combination of CAP-XX supercapacitors with Energous' WattUp over-the-air wireless power technology is expected to enable maintenance-free IoT devices that do not require battery replacement. Energous, listed on NSADAQ (Ticker: WATT, market cap $75m), is a fabless semiconductor and systems supplier for Radio Frequency wireless power networks. Based