Residential for rent developer and manager Watkin Jones today posted FY 2020 results, in which profits, cash and dividend beat our estimates by c. 4 - 5%. We have maintained our FY 2021E forecasts and introduced estimates for FY 2022E. Our growth assumptions are supported by further evidence in the statement of a revival in forward funding by institutional investors for both the Group’s build-to-rent and student accommodation developments. A new strategy is aimed to trial the private residential sales division more to affordable housing, in line with WJ’s low-risk, capital-light model.
Companies: Watkin Jones Plc
Foresight Group , the award-winning infrastructure and private equity investment manager to IPO on the Main Market (Premium). The Offer will primarily comprise a sale of shares by existing shareholders (c.80% of the Offer) with a smaller offering of new shares (c.20% of the Offer) to be issued by the Company. Details TBA.
Cornish Metals (TSX-V: CUSN) intends to list on AIM. The Company is proposing to raise £5m by way of private placement of new Common Shares to advance the United Downs copper-tin project. The Company expects that Admission will become effective in February 2021. The Company's Common Shares will continue to be listed and trade on the TSX-V in Canada.
VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments announced it intends to launch an IPO of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb.
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Residential for rent developer and manager Watkin Jones has taken advantage of land opportunities and a renewed institutional investment appetite to increase its development pipeline – at what we believe to be attractive prices. Today’s FY 2020E trading update from the build-to-rent (BTR) and purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) specialist shows a big rise in its pipeline and new forward funding deal plus solid trading in housebuilding and accommodation management. Net cash has risen and the group has reinstated guidance and its intention to pay a FY dividend.
New Government rules yesterday allowing unused office and industrial sites to be redeveloped without planning permission into housing could, in our view, allow Watkin Jones to regenerate its city centre sites into build-torent (BTR) or student accommodation more quickly, and with greater certainty. This should further enhance the residential for rent developer and manager’s low-risk, capital-light offer to institutional property investors and support the Government’s aim of reviving urban centres.
Covid-19 could be the catalyst for build-to-rent (BTR) to “come of age” according to residential for rent developer and manager Watkin Jones. It was already ramping up BTR alongside its core of student accommodation, but we now believe demand for purpose-built private rental could be further boosted by people choosing to rent and by an institutional hunger to replenish dwindling sources of yield. The recent interims showed BTR overtaking student housing’s pipeline and we believe WJ’s low-risk, capital light model is tailormade to serve this burgeoning market.
Residential for rent developer and manager Watkin Jones confirms in today’s interim results that it has started a phased return to construction and has the financial resilience, including gross cash of £72m and £71m headroom on its new RCF, to return to growth and “take advantage of economic opportunities that may arise” in the fall-out from the Covid-19 lockdown. The results show increases in revenue, profit and pipeline in a sector which could be transformed following the lockdown.
Residential for rent developer and manager Watkin Jones traded strongly in H1 but faces inevitable disruption on its student housing and build-to-rent developments, according to last week’s pre-close update. However, we believe its established defensive qualities are demonstrated by its net cash position, forward sold position and ‘capital-light’ model. Although it has withdrawn guidance, we believe it is strongly placed to return to growth when the virus abates and could exploit widespread land opportunities.
Red Dwarf, the very British sci-fi comedy franchise, ran for 11 seasons – most recently in 2017; and The Promised Land is a feature-length TV movie – out this year. Yes, the programme is an acquired taste. Strangely, too, many episodes are impacted by a virus or three (physiological, not main-frame).
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Storms eventually blow over, even CAT 5 hurricanes like COVID-19, which has grounded airlines, cruise ships & travel firms worldwide. Together with forcing many others to close, namely pubs, restaurants, hotels and more recently construction sites.
It’s sometimes easy for investors to get caught up in the latest ‘buzz doing the rounds’, and lose sight of the big picture. Namely finding quality stocks that can out-perform across the economic cycle. Cue Watkin Jones, a developer/manager of large scale, multi occupancy accommodation, who - since IPO’ing at 100p in March 2016 - has delivered a total return of 163% (28.6% IRR):- split 142p capital appreciation and 21p dividends.
For fighter pilots, it is a minimum requirement. But having 20/20 ‘visual acuity’ (correct term) does not necessarily mean you have perfect vision (as convention assumes); instead, it indicates sharpness and clarity of vision at a distance. It is measured by a Snellen Chart, which displays letters of progressively smaller size and whereby 20/20 means that the test subject sees the same line of letters at 20 feet that a person with normal vision sees at 20 feet (or 6 metres; but 6/6 simply didn’t catch on).
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Often investors are faced with the difficult decision of having to choose between growth and value. Rarely is it possible to get the best of both worlds, but we think Watkin Jones is one such stock. Not only do the shares trade on a FY20 adjusted PER (ex cash) of 12.0x and pay a 3.6% dividend yield. But also the firm is benefiting from long term tailwinds in its 2 key markets of Build to Rent (BtR) & student accommodation (PBSA). In turn, offering opportunities much larger than we’d previously thought.
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The acquisition and planned relaunch of Debenhams online business is a transformational deal for the Group, establishing an ecommerce marketplace of immediate scale and high brand awareness. The deal expands boohoo’s target addressable market and opens the Group up to new product categories including beauty, sport and homeware. It is a significant step forwards in realising the Group’s ambition to operate the UK’s largest ecommerce marketplace, combining boohoo’s online capability and multi-brand platform with Debenhams leading brand recognition and extensive established network of third-party brand partnerships.
Companies: boohoo group Plc
Boohoo has delivered strong results over the peak trading period for the four months ended 31 December 2020. Group revenue is +40% YOY, with robust growth seen across all brands and regions. The Agenda for Change programme is progressing at pace, demonstrating the Group’s commitment to setting a new standard for ethical supply chains in the fashion industry.
SCE is raising £20m through a placing and open offer as the future commercial pipeline now justifies building the next manufacturing cell (“Cell 2”). Cell 2 will essentially double production capacity and transform the potential of the business. When operating at full capacity, we estimate that SCE would be capable of £35m revenues, £15m EBIT and £12.5m Earnings. This would equate to EV/EBIT of 7.1x and P/E of 9.5x based on the enlarged capital base. Recent trading updates have highlighted that trading is strong and in line with expectations, while longer term ASP expectations have increased significantly.
Companies: Surface Transforms plc
Today's news & views, plus announcements from BRBY, BHB, DPLM, IWG,GFTU, CMCX, JDW, GFRD, BGO
Companies: Bango plc (BGO:LON)Galliford Try Holdings PLC (GFRD:LON)
Although 2020 will probably go down in history as one of the most challenging years experienced during our lifetime, it will also likely be chronicled as one of the best years for the recognition and appreciation of science. As we entered 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was in its infancy. However, it rapidly evolved through the exponential rise in infections and mortality globally. Much has been achieved during the past 12 months in the fight against COVID-19, but, as we enter 2021, there are considerable concerns about the emergence of a mutant version of the virus and the second wave that we are now facing.
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The group’s year-end trading update highlights that the group is on track with its growth and expansion strategy. At the end of the year, a couple of COVID and Brexit-related delays to customer ordering were seen, which have reduced revenue by £0.7m. Nevertheless, operating profits are in line with expectations due to continued cost control. Our forecasts have therefore been adjusted accordingly. The investment case remains sound and this doesn’t alter our view of the company’s prospects, where we forecast a robust scale up over the next few years, focused on significant growth opportunities in the EVs, Medical and Aerospace markets.
Companies: Trackwise Designs Plc
Trackwise has announced that it expects FY20 revenues to be c £6.1m, which is lower than our estimate, reflecting disruptions to supply chains caused by tighter coronavirus restrictions and uncertainty about the Brexit deal. However, careful cost control means that management expects adjusted operating losses to be c £0.2m, in line with our estimates. We have updated our FY20 forecasts but leave our FY21 estimates, which are underpinned by an order worth up to £38m over three years from a UK electric vehicle (EV) OEM, unchanged.
InnovaDerma raised £4.0m to (i) strengthen the balance sheet following the impact of COVID-19 on current trading and (ii) grow its global Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) and E-Commerce capacity in the UK and new geographic markets, thereby enabling the company to accelerate sales and take advantage of the opportunities expected to exist post COVID restrictions being eased. With a clear plan for growth, to be executed by its new CEO, we introduce new forecasts for FY 2021 and 2022 that assume some gradual easing of restrictions in the UK in the spring, with an adjusted pre-tax loss of c.£0.9m in 2021 (positive EBITDA in H2) returning to c.£0.3m profit in FY 2022 on the back of revenues returning to pre-pandemic levels, including higher international contributions. We introduce a target price of 90p, with scope for this to be raised as the new CEO executes on the growth plan, which is based on a peer group EV/Sales multiple of 1.6x.
Companies: InnovaDerma PLC
Today’s Q1 trading update indicates that sales have levelled out at c.£2m per quarter, reflecting current lower levels of demand in light of ongoing restrictions related to the COVID pandemic. The reorganisation and cost reduction measures undertaken by management last year have enabled the Group to maintain a positive EBITDA and there has been a slight increase in orders in the new financial year. Zytronic entered the new year in a strong financial position with £14m net cash. The stable sales pattern should enable us to reintroduce forecasts in due course and the current rating remains very modest indeed based on preCOVID levels of profitability
Companies: Zytronic plc
The Character Group’s (Character) AGM statement confirms the strong start to the year noted in its preliminary results. Revenues in the first four months were ahead by more than 30% and management expects that profitability for the first half to February 2021 will be significantly higher than in the same period last year. While there are more challenges facing the Company in the second half, assuming these do not worsen the Board believes the Group will achieve current market expectations. Our forecasts for FY2021 were raised significantly in December and we are encouraged that despite the temporarily deteriorating macros, current market expectations are still valid. When some normality returns to the market Character will be exceptionally well positioned with a strong balance sheet and a product range in strong demand.
Companies: Character Group plc
This brief but important update has underlined that Galliford Try is coping admirably with the seemingly constantly changing COVID restrictions, with all sites open (as they have been since the start of the financial year in July 2020) and trading at “normal” levels – in line with management expectations.
Crucially, a return of profitability and dividends (as previously flagged) is expected with the half year results, due to be released on 4th March. Consensus is for a 2.5p dividend for the year ending in June 2021, growing rapidly to 4.0p for 2022 and 5.4p for 2023.
Companies: Galliford Try Holdings PLC
Today's news & views, plus announcements from JET, PSN, SONG, HWDN, MSLH, PAGE, WMH, ASC, BGO, CUSN, CAY
Companies: Bango plc (BGO:LON)Persimmon Plc (PSN:LON)
Tern plc* (TERN.L, 7.1p/£23.5m) Portfolio update: Strong business momentum (12.01.21) | Audioboom plc* (BOOM.L, 276p/£43.3m) Expanded content network (15.01.21)
Companies: Tern Plc (TERN:LON)Audioboom Group PLC (BOOM:LON)
The group has issued another positive trading update confirming full-year revenue 25% ahead of our original projection made in March and a LBITDA 39% lower than originally forecast and 81% lower than the previous year. We anticipate further revenue growth in 2021 but also an increase in LBITDA as management invests further in a number of growth initiatives. We expect the 2022 financial year to reflect the benefit of the strategic investment programme as the business progresses towards breakeven.
Companies: Eve Sleep PLC
Outlook remains in line with market expectations
Companies: IG Design Group plc