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19 Sep 2023
McBride : Solid results and increased certainty - Hold

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McBride : Solid results and increased certainty - Hold
McBride plc (MCB:LON) | 114 7 5.8% | Mkt Cap: 197.9m
- Published:
19 Sep 2023 -
Author:
Matthew Webb -
Pages:
6 -
McBride (MCB) has released its FY23 results to 30 June. It had already issued a detailed trading update covering this period on 14 July, so there are no major surprises in the results. MCB finished FY23 strongly, based on a favourable market environment for private label products and category share gains. Volumes were +12.7% in Q4, taking the FY23 figure to +5.6%. Revenue was £890m, in line with our forecast of £889m. Constant currency revenue growth was 28.4%, implying price/mix improvement of 22.8%. Operating profit was £13.5m, 4% above our estimate of £13.0m. PBT was £0.3m better than our expectation of a loss before tax of £0.5m. MCB had already disclosed that net debt ended the year at £166.5m.
Looking to FY24E, we had already upgraded our operating profit forecast to £25.0m (from £22.8m) in July. We nonetheless nudge our forecast up further, by £1.0m (or 4%), to £26.0m. Our PBT forecast also increases by £1.0m (or 8%) to £13.5m. Our EPS forecast increases to 5.5p (previously 5.1p). Our FY25E forecasts increase by the same absolute amounts.
The upgrades to our FY24/FY25E forecasts are based on the expectation that the favourable environment for private label products continues for the time being. With the economic situation remaining tough, there is no obvious reason why consumers would switch back to brands, when there is little or no quality difference. It seems more likely that the shift to private label will continue unless the pricing behaviour of the brand owners changes significantly in an attempt to protect their volume share.
The removal of going concern uncertainly should be positive for sentiment, as well as potentially for credit insurance and extended creditor terms.