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  • 27 Feb 2024

McBride : Upgrading again as outlook remains positive - Buy


McBride plc (MCB:LON) | 123 1.5 1.0% | Mkt Cap: 214.3m


  • Investec Bank
    • Matthew Webb

    • 6 pages


 

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McBride : Upgrading again as outlook remains positive - Buy


McBride plc (MCB:LON) | 123 1.5 1.0% | Mkt Cap: 214.3m


  • Published: 27 Feb 2024
  • Author: Matthew Webb
  • Pages: 6
  • Investec Bank


McBride has released H124 results to 31 December 2023. Constant currency revenue growth was +9.9%, as reported in its recent trading update. Volume growth was +6.4% and private label volume growth was +10.1%. This implies price/mix of c.3.5%, driven by price increases in FY23. Although MCB’s revenue growth slowed in the final two months of H124, the outlook for H224 and the rest of calendar 2024 is positive. Demand in January and February has been in line with H124 and “favourable trends for private label markets are expected to continue throughout [calendar] 2024”. Moreover, contract wins will start to support revenue growth from fiscal H125. We therefore nudge up our FY24E and FY25E revenue forecasts. We upgrade our FY24E operating profit forecast more materially (by 17%) from £53m to £62m. MCB delivered operating profit of £30.5m in H124, versus a loss of £1.3m in H123. Our new FY24E forecast implies an operating margin of 6.4%, a strong recovery from only 1.5% in FY23 (and a significant loss in FY22). Our FY25E operating profit upgrade is somewhat lower given the level of uncertainty around input costs, but still material at 8% (from £50m to £54m), implying an operating margin of 5.5%. FY24 net debt/EBITDA is now expected to be “below 2x” and our net debt forecast improves to £130m (previously £136m), implying just over 1.5x. We increase our target price to 112p, based on our higher forecasts and an unchanged methodology (6.5x FY25E PE). This would still be a near 30% discount to the c.9x average in the five years before the spike in input costs in 2021 pushed MCB into significant loss in FY22.

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