OPG Power Ventures - Positive update for FY March 2024

OPG Power has released a positive trading update for the year ended 31 March 2024, and now expects to exceed previous market expectations at the EBITDA and revenue level. The company continued to benefit from a stronger revenue run-rate during H2/24 compared with FY23, reflecting greater availability of profitable supply contracts, which in turn have enabled OPG to run at higher levels of plant utilisation. We are raising our revenue forecast for FY24 by 22% to £162m, and our EBITDA by 34% to £1

AB Dynamics (ABDP LN) - Strategy on track but valuation full

Playing a bit of catch up, we lift our estimates for the recent acquisition of Venshure Test Services (VTS) and positive interim earnings. Cash generation and the net cash position remain healthy, and the outlook for earnings growth is generally positive.

LIBERUM: Luceco: Trading comfortably in line

Morning Note – 13 May 2024

Norcros (NXR LN) - Capital Markets Day – taking the next step

Norcros recently hosted a Capital Markets Day (CMD) signalling a change in how the business communicates with the market. In recent history it has focused on growing its share of the highly fragmented bathroom and kitchen product markets organically and through acquisition. This has resulted in a portfolio of businesses with varying degrees of capital intensity and profitability but created a Group of scale (c. £450m revenue) with strong positions in its end markets. Last week’s CMD was evidence

LIBERUM: MPAC: Solid start to FY24, raising our TP to 550p

Invinity Energy Systems - Funded to Cash Generation and More

Re-issued to correct for typographical errors.Invinity’s major equity fundraising is targeting a minimum of £56m with £25m already committed by the UK Infrastructure Bank (UKIB). A second strategic investment of £3m has been committed by Korean Investment Partners.  The raise will see Invinity to net cash generation, with over £30m of the raise supporting the company’s scale up ahead of this year’s launch of the next generation Mistral flow battery. The raise will boost the balance sheet, reduci

Mpac Group+ (MPAC, House Stock at 485p) - AGM, a positive trading update

Strategy refresh targets growth accelerators

Market sentiment is rapidly re-focusing on earnings potential in an improving economic cycle. Norcros’ CMD was well-timed with this increasing willingness to consider mid-cycle earnings scenarios. Norcros is targeting accelerators to boost organic growth in core bathroom and kitchen product groups to be supplemented by M&A activity. The CMD reiterated the company’s four strategic pillars and added financial targets including organic, above market revenue growth and margin expansion. Leading mar

Water Intelligence Q1 Trading Update

Water Intelligence has reported a positive Q1 update which firmly underpins our FY24 estimates and we edge up our forecasts by +1% following the recent franchise reacquisition.

LIBERUM: Currys: Improving momentum drives material beat and third consecutive upgrade

SP Angel Spec Sits HERC.LN: Positive trading update

Hercules is likely to report growth in H1E of over 27% YoY. H1E is the seasonally weaker half and the reported likely outcome for revenues in H1E represents half of our FY24E revenue forecast. As the seasonally stronger half of the year progresses, upwards pressure could materialise on our forecasts. Together with a prospective lower interest rate environment and a potential re-rating of the infrastructure sector, we see share price upside ahead.

AGM statement: momentum maintained

In a statement to accompany today’s AGM, Mpac reports that the strong earnings momentum established in the second half of 2023 has continued into 2024. Accordingly, the Group is on track to meet FY24 market expectations, with the customary second-half earnings weighting. Following the AGM statement, our outlook is maintained. Our Fair Value of 530p/share is indicative of a FY24 EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x and PE of 13.9x. Compared to market cap weighted averages of 11.8x and 18.2x respectively f

Strong foundations

Lords Group Trading - FY23 results in-line with expectations

Lords Group has reported FY23 results in-line with our forecasts in terms of revenue, EBITDA and cash flow. The company reports that trading for FY24 is in-line with market expectations, notwithstanding the continued challenging trading environment for UK construction materials as reflected in our existing forecasts. We maintain our FY24 revenue and EBITDA forecasts. We adjust our PBT forecast to reflect higher IFRS 16 depreciation charges. We are maintaining our 106p target price.