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The Q3 23 results showed a marked slowdown vs Q3 22 and, to a lesser extent, sequentially. The stainless segment was to blame, while High-Performance Alloys continued to perform reasonably well. in a context of lower sales, the cash generation was solid and came in better than expected, which further improved the balance-sheet. We will adjust our numbers and target price downwards but see no real drama in these results.
Companies: Acerinox (ACX:BME)Acerinox SA (ACX:MCE)
AlphaValue
Acerinox released an unsurprising set of results. Europe was still weak, while the US did much better, as expected too. The High-Performance Alloys division is doing well. Its different cyclicality is a clear plus for the group. We will not change our numbers much after the release.
Acerinox released a very decent and consensus-beating set of results for Q1 23. Despite the headwinds in stainless in Europe, the group’s geographic balance has helped it improve its results significantly vs Q4 23, thanks to the US and to the smaller Performance Alloys segment. We will upgrade our forecasts at least for the current year, despite the fact we are rather at the high-end of expectations.
Similarly to what peers Aperam and Outokumpu had already communicated, Acerinox posted a very strong performance in FY22, even if there was a significant slow down in Q4. For sure, the current year is likely to be less spectacular, even if no disaster is in sight. We had already factored in this likely scenario looking forward and will not change our numbers and target price materially after this release.
Acerinox released a decent set of Q3 numbers in the current circumstances. Margins (EBITDA) remained in double-digit territory despite higher energy prices and softer demand. The group is guiding for a lower EBITDA in Q4 vs Q3, which is no real surprise. We will revise our estimates a tick down after these numbers. The valuation however remains undemanding.
Acerinox released a solid set of numbers for Q1 22 These were supported by healthy demand and very strong prices, while the Alloys segment is slowly recovering Net debt is only increasing due to the working capital build-up Despite the fact we will revise our (too conservative) forecasts upwards, we may not change our target price materially
The FY21 numbers came in well in line with the street’s and company’s guidance. The pricing situation has remained good in Q4 and going into FY22 despite the less positive comments on costs (energy and freight), of course if the geopolitical context does not worsen. Net debt is under control. This comes despite a €460m increase in working capital and allows for a significant return to shareholders. No big change to our numbers to be expected after this release.
The nine months results came in above expectations. This was true for both the Stainless Steel and High-Performance Alloys divisions. The outlook released by the group is very supportive for Q4 21 and possibly Q1 22. We will revise our numbers upwards.
The Q1 21 results were excellent with the positive trend witnessed since H2 20 continuing in Q2 The final demand and the rebuilding of inventories explain this strong upward trend Anti-dumping measures, in both the US and Europe, supported this trend Margins (13% at EBITDA level in Q2, 14% in Stainless) not seen since 2006 The outlook (at least for Q3) is very supportive Despite the lack of visibility after Q3, we will upgrade forecasts and target price
Q1 results came in above expectations The stainless steel segment was very supportive The Alloys segment was still underperforming despite an improving order-book The group’s margins were close to historical highs We will fine-tune our numbers after this positive release
FY20 results came in above expectations The integration of VDM seems to be going alright The outlook for Q1 21 is rather promising We will upgrade our numbers and target price
Q320 again showed the resilience of the group However, High Performance Alloys remained weak Q4 set to be of the same vein as Q3 No major changes to our numbers
Companies: Acerinox SA
H1 20 results were almost stable on last year’s Even if the group benefits from the first consolidation of VDM, the group’s performance was very good in Q2 given the context The outlook calls for a stable situation vs Q2 The group seems on track to reach our numbers for the current year
FY19 numbers were in line with impairments, inventory write-downs and exceptional items leading to lower than expected net results Net debt is well under control, a good piece of news ahead of the VDM acquisition The latter will be the main earnings growth driver in the short term, we believe The outlook looks decent, with no real comment so far on the Coronavirus outbreak
Q3 19 came in line and was in fact slightly higher than the group’s own guidance. Margins thus remained rather healthy given the context, showing the efforts made on the cost side. Cash flow was pleasing and deleveraging is still on the cards. Europe was still suffering (imports and economic slowdown) but the US was supportive. Q4 should be similar to Q3, while visibility is low on 2020. We will marginally adjust our numbers to the downside.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Acerinox SA. We currently have 27 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
NextSource is uniquely positioned to build a leading vertically integrated position, ex China, in the supply of Lithium-ion battery anode material which is essential for the Energy Transition. The company is commissioning phase 1 of its world-class Molo graphite mine in Madagascar and is in the final permitting process for its first Battery Anode Facility (BAF) to be located in Mauritius. The company is backed by Vision Blue, established by Sir Mick Davis, former CEO of Xstrata. On our calculat
Companies: NextSource Materials Inc
Capital Access Group
i3 Energy announced that its 2024 guidance consists of expectations to drill 10.5 net wells (7.6 net wells in Central Alberta, 1.9 net wells in Simonette and 1.0 net wells in the Clearwater play) with 85% of capex allocated to the second half of the year. Total capex expenditure for the year is guided at $US 50.9m. The company indicated that it intends to commence pad drilling of its Montney acreage in Q1 2025 and we perceive the company is bulking up for that significant growth opportunity for
Companies: i3 Energy Plc
WHIreland
Beowulf is advancing a portfolio of projects in Europe focussed on metals and minerals that are critical to enabling the continent’s transition to a greener economy. Awareness of Europe’s over-reliance on external supply sources for such vital raw materials is driving growing political support for ‘home-grown’ projects. Beowulf is strategically positioned to leverage this fast-evolving trend – its Kallak project in Sweden holds potential to deliver high-quality iron ore to lower the carbon-inten
Companies: Beowulf Mining PLC
Alternative Resource Capital
Falcon has raised gross proceeds of US$8.9m via a placing and subscription at a price of 6p/share and the granting of overriding royalty interests. The net proceeds, together with Falcon’s existing cash resources (cUS$4.3m) will be used to fund Falcon’s net share of 2024 capex (cUS$9m) associated with the 40MMscf/d Shenandoah South Pilot Project, including the drilling, stimulation, and flow testing of two 10,000ft horizontal wells. The funds will also enable Falcon to fund its share of the cost
Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
Cavendish
Beowulf is an AIM/Spotlight-listed developer of two flagship assets; Kallak, a high-grade iron ore project in Sweden and the Grafintec Graphite Anode Materials Plant. The Company's Kallak North project has the potential to produce 2.5mtpa of high-grade, premium iron ore concentrate suitable for the growing green steel industry in Sweden. Additionally, Grafintec's Anode Material Plant Project is well positioned to serve the growing EV battery supply chain in Europe, whilst supporting EU plans
SP Angel
I3 has released its work programme and budget for 2024, alongside providing guidance for the year. This represents a larger programme than 2023, with the focus now shifting to greater operational activity and production gains given the additional balance sheet strength achieved in recent months.
Zeus Capital
Companies: FOG PHC FEN BBSN ELIX
Companies: 88E CNC FTC TRCS HEIQ CREO ZAM
Despite end market demand remaining difficult in several regions Trifast has announced that revenue and profitability will be marginally ahead of the guidance provided at the end of January. Self-help initiatives instigated during 2023 are starting to come through providing visibility on the majority of the £3.0m savings identified to come through in the current financial year (Mar FY25). Zeus estimates were in line with guidance of £230m revenue, £11.5m EBIT and £6.0m PBT. We leave forecasts un
Companies: Trifast plc
Companies: MPE TRI VNET BVXP HVO
• Multiple tests over multiple zones in multiple horizons were run at the Mopane-1X exploration well. The flows achieved during the well test reached the maximum allowed limits of 14 mboe/d. The flow rate was constrained by the size of the available surface facilities. • The AVO-1 horizon encountered at Mopane-1X and Mopane-2X are in the same pressure regime, suggesting that the entire area (8 km diameter) between the two wells is connected. Overall, in the Mopane complex alone, and before dril
Companies: SINTANA ENERGY
Auctus Advisors
Companies: Touchstone Exploration Inc
Shore Capital
Jubilee today reports its Q3 and third quarter operational results from its expanding operations in Zambia (copper) and South Africa (chrome and PGM). South Africa is on a growth trajectory with record chrome production of 409kt in the quarter (Q2 FY2024 381kt) and a monthly record in March of 145kt and production YTD of 1.13Mt (0.94Mt). Jubilee is well underway to its annual target capacity of 2,1Mt/yr especially with the new 300kt/yr chrome plant at Thutse expected to be operational in August
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
Companies: Ferrexpo plc
Liberum
Companies: AURA OMI AAL KAV POW BMN EST SVML
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