Kenmare Resources: Quarterly production impacted by seasonal rains

Kenmare Resources (“KMR”) released its quarterly results for Q1’24 with ilmenite production coming in line with guidance as the seasonal rains caused operational difficulties. KMR produced 316.4kt of Heavy Mineral Concentrate (“HMC”) (23% of H&Pe full year) with 308kt processed, for ilmenite production of 205.5kt (21% of H&Pe full year). Q1 is regularly impacted by power instability caused by seasonal rains, however this quarter was impacted more than any in the last five years. This brought pro

SP Angel Morning View: Shenzhen exports and imports by private companies rose 72.4% yoy through January & February

Kenmare Resources: Solid FY23 results and FY24 guidance unchanged

Kenmare Resources (“KMR”) released FY23 financial results, with EBITDA of US$220m and EPS of US 137cps, 3% and 5% above H&Pe, respectively, due to lower-than-expected P&L costs. A final dividend of US 38.5cps was declared bringing the FY23 payout to US$50m as previously guided. KMR’s operational outlook is unchanged with ilmenite production expected to be 950-1,050kt in FY24, weighted to H2, with Q1’24 output now guided to be similar to Q1’23 (204kt). Despite a falling trend in TiO2 feedstock ma

Kenmare Resources: Michael Carvill, Founder and Managing Director of KMR, to step down after almost four decades

Kenmare Resources (“KMR”) announced on 15th March that Michael Carvill will step down as Managing Director having founded and led the company since 1987. In this time, Mr Carvill steered KMR to become one of the world’s largest titanium feedstock producers with over US$230m returned to shareholders since 2019. During his tenure, the Kenmare Moma Development Association has invested over US$20m into local communities with three health centres, >80 classrooms and 30 water supply systems installed.

Kenmare Resources: Upping target as near-term malaise exacerbates long-term deficits; investor unease highlights valuation gap

Kenmare Resources (“KMR”) has bolstered its balance sheet with a proposed new US$200m revolving credit facility (“RCF”), announced on Feb 6th. The RCF should provide KMR a funding cushion of at least US$50m (H&Pe), whilst still allowing a 40% dividend payout ratio as Moma enters a period of elevated capital expenditure with the relocation of WCP A to Nataka. Nonetheless, falling ilmenite prices and weak production in 2023 due to weather impacts have driven poor share price performance in recent

Kenmare Resources: Q4’23 trading update - a more solid quarter albeit with shipment delays; full 2024 guidance announced

Kenmare Resources (“KMR”) released its Q4’23 operational results from its Moma Titanium Minerals mine, hitting revised guidance across its diverse product list. 2023 Heavy Mineral Concentrate (“HMC”) production of 1,448kt was just 9% below FY22, with H2 more than 28% above weather-impacted H1. The mining rate fell in the final quarter, offset slightly by grade, however production still lagged Q4’22 due to lower recoveries from HMC and unplanned stoppages, as well as a HMC shortage. Ilmenite prod

Kenmare Resources: Capital projects update – WCP A move sanctioned by Board; capex estimate upped

Kenmare Resources (“KMR”) has provided an update on its capital projects, including the transition of Wet Concentrator Plant A (“WCP A”) to the Nataka ore zone, expected to complete by 2026. KMR’s Board has now approved the construction of a new de-sliming circuit and tailings storage facility (“TSF”) required once operations move to Nataka. With a definitive feasibility study (“DFS”) still underway on remaining infrastructure items, the total estimated capex has been updated to US$316-331m, vs

SP Angel Morning View: Gold and copper soar as Jerome Powell indicates 75bp cut in rates next year

Kenmare Resources: Q3 Results – improved production performance after challenging H1; shipments lower due to vessel timing

Kenmare Resources (“KMR”) has released a solid Q3 trading update, with output improving after a challenging first half of the year. Heavy mineral concentrate (“HMC”) production in Q3 was 414.6kt, 10% above H&Pe and up 30% QoQ, on the back of better-than-expected grades and ore throughput, as operations stabilised after a lightning strike in Q1 and power issues in Q2. Nonetheless, production was lower than the same period last year, down 7% YoY, driven by lower ore grades. Ilmenite end-product ou

Kenmare Resources: Q3 Preview- operations expected to stabilise after challenging H1

Kenmare Resources will release its Q3 trading update on Thursday 12th October. The key focus will be the delivery of operational improvements after a challenging first half, in our view. We estimate heavy mineral concentrate (“HMC”) production in Q3 of 378kt, delivering ilmenite end-product output of 276kt, zircon of 14kt and rutile of 2.2kt. Including solid H1 financial results (reported o 15th Aug), we revise our FY23E EBITDA upwards by 5% to US$236m. Our Dec’24E target price is unchanged at G

SP Angel Morning View: Metal prices pull back on weaker than expected Chinese economic data

Kenmare Resources: Challenging H1 saved by strong pricing & shipment volumes to hit record revenue and US17.5cps

Kenmare Resources (“KMR”) has released solid interim financial results, supported by higher ilmenite prices and shipments. Despite a poor operational performance at Moma in H1, semi-annual EBITDA was US$110.4m, +12% vs H&Pe and +5% YoY. Net profit also beat our estimate by 13%, allowing KMR to declare an interim dividend of US17.5cps, +58% vs H&Pe and +59% YoY. As previously mooted, the Company has also confirmed a US$30m share buyback. We believe this underlines management’s commitment to share

Kenmare Resources: Challenging H1 drives downgrade to FY23E but long-term value intact; interim results preview

Kenmare (“KMR”) reported a weak first half of operational performance on 13th July, with ilmenite output of 425kt, down 9% on the same period last year. As a result, the Company downgraded production guidance for the full year, leading to a cut in our FY23E estimates. Although shipments in H1 were boosted by a drawdown in finished product stockpiles, we expect interim financial results, due on 15th August, to reflect a challenging period with YoY falls in H&Pe H1 EBITDA (-7%) and EPS (-4%). None

NextSource Materials - Initiation

NextSource is uniquely positioned to build a leading vertically integrated position, ex China, in the supply of Lithium-ion battery anode material which is essential for the Energy Transition. The company is commissioning phase 1 of its world-class Molo graphite mine in Madagascar and is in the final permitting process for its first Battery Anode Facility (BAF) to be located in Mauritius. The company is backed by Vision Blue, established by Sir Mick Davis, former CEO of Xstrata. On our calculat

Falcon Oil & Gas - Funding a Multi TCF Resource

Falcon has raised gross proceeds of US$8.9m via a placing and subscription at a price of 6p/share and the granting of overriding royalty interests. The net proceeds, together with Falcon’s existing cash resources (cUS$4.3m) will be used to fund Falcon’s net share of 2024 capex (cUS$9m) associated with the 40MMscf/d Shenandoah South Pilot Project, including the drilling, stimulation, and flow testing of two 10,000ft horizontal wells. The funds will also enable Falcon to fund its share of the cost

Initiation of Coverage - Critical raw materials for Europe’s green transition

Beowulf is advancing a portfolio of projects in Europe focussed on metals and minerals that are critical to enabling the continent’s transition to a greener economy. Awareness of Europe’s over-reliance on external supply sources for such vital raw materials is driving growing political support for ‘home-grown’ projects. Beowulf is strategically positioned to leverage this fast-evolving trend – its Kallak project in Sweden holds potential to deliver high-quality iron ore to lower the carbon-inten

Morning Note – 22 April 2024

Trifast (TRI LN) - Trading conditions remain difficult but self-help initiatives coming through

Despite end market demand remaining difficult in several regions Trifast has announced that revenue and profitability will be marginally ahead of the guidance provided at the end of January. Self-help initiatives instigated during 2023 are starting to come through providing visibility on the majority of the £3.0m savings identified to come through in the current financial year (Mar FY25). Zeus estimates were in line with guidance of £230m revenue, £11.5m EBIT and £6.0m PBT. We leave forecasts un

Morning Note – 24 April 2024

i3 Energy - 2024 Guidance: Consolidation for Growth

i3 Energy announced that its 2024 guidance consists of expectations to drill 10.5 net wells (7.6 net wells in Central Alberta, 1.9 net wells in Simonette and 1.0 net wells in the Clearwater play) with 85% of capex allocated to the second half of the year. Total capex expenditure for the year is guided at $US 50.9m. The company indicated that it intends to commence pad drilling of its Montney acreage in Q1 2025 and we perceive the company is bulking up for that significant growth opportunity for

Morning Note – 25 April 2024

Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): Constrained test rate of 14 mboe/d at Mopane-1X. 10+ bn boe in place confirmed.

• Multiple tests over multiple zones in multiple horizons were run at the Mopane-1X exploration well. The flows achieved during the well test reached the maximum allowed limits of 14 mboe/d. The flow rate was constrained by the size of the available surface facilities. • The AVO-1 horizon encountered at Mopane-1X and Mopane-2X are in the same pressure regime, suggesting that the entire area (8 km diameter) between the two wells is connected. Overall, in the Mopane complex alone, and before dril

Touchstone Exploration+ (TXP, House Stock at 44p) - Closing of expanded bank facilities

Beowulf Mining (BEM LN) – Initiation Note – BUY – Supporting Scandinavia's Green Transition

Beowulf is an AIM/Spotlight-listed developer of two flagship assets; Kallak, a high-grade iron ore project in Sweden and the Grafintec Graphite Anode Materials Plant. The Company's Kallak North project has the potential to produce 2.5mtpa of high-grade, premium iron ore concentrate suitable for the growing green steel industry in Sweden. Additionally, Grafintec's Anode Material Plant Project is well positioned to serve the growing EV battery supply chain in Europe, whilst supporting EU plans

Jubilee Metals - Operational Update Q3 FY2024

Jubilee today reports its Q3 and third quarter operational results from its expanding operations in Zambia (copper) and South Africa (chrome and PGM). South Africa is on a growth trajectory with record chrome production of 409kt in the quarter (Q2 FY2024 381kt) and a monthly record in March of 145kt and production YTD of 1.13Mt (0.94Mt). Jubilee is well underway to its annual target capacity of 2,1Mt/yr especially with the new 300kt/yr chrome plant at Thutse expected to be operational in August

LIBERUM: Ferrexpo: Production triples

SP Angel Morning View: Gold prices slide following profit taking as traders look to US data

SP Angel Morning View: Copper prices hit $9,700/t as China smelts concentrates for zero charge Tc/Rc