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19 Feb 2025
2H24 first take - divi better but disappointing unit cash cost guides

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2H24 first take - divi better but disappointing unit cash cost guides
Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON) | 4,354 -65.3 (0.0%) | Mkt Cap: 54,594m
- Published:
19 Feb 2025 -
Author:
Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
9 -
What happened?
2H24 EBITDA was a small miss (-4% vs VA consensus) with puts and takes at the divisional level. The final divi of USD 2.25/sh was +9% above consensus. FCF was stronger but ultimately net debt came in above consensus. While we already knew 2025 production and capex guidance, today''s release of iron ore and copper unit cost guidance came in above expectations and will pressure consensus EBITDA. RIO will host a call at 8pm UK time tonight to discuss the results.
BNPP Exane View:
RIO reported 2H24 underlying EBITDA of USD 11.2bn, -3% and -4% vs Visible Alpha consensus and BNPPE. Relative to consensus, Aluminium was the clear positive stand out with USD 2.1bn of EBITDA, +7% vs consensus. There were also benefits from lower spend in other items and exploration/evaluation. The Copper business was the largest laggard with EBITDA of USD 1.6bn, -18% vs consensus. Iron ore was slightly below expectations (-4%) and Minerals was -35% vs consensus but the nominal delta to the group makes it a much smaller impact.
The final divi of USD 2.25/sh was in-line with BNPPE but +9% vs consensus. While RIO has a policy to payout 40-60% of underlying earnings through-cycle, paying out at the top end as it did in 2024 has been its consistent performance for some time. At the investor seminar in December it was hinted at that the divi payout would again be at the top end of the range.
Capex ultimately came in slightly below the USD 10bn guide with 2H24 at USD 5.6bn but split expectations (7% less than BNPPE but 4% above consensus'' estimated outflow). FCF of USD 2.7bn was +11% vs consensus and +51% vs our more conservative forecast. However, net debt ultimately came in at USD 5.5bn, -8% below BNPPE but +11% above consensus.
2025 production and capex guidance, as expected, was reiterated. Impacts to the Pilbara in 1Q25 from multiple cyclones has now been quantified (loss of c13Mt) but full year shipment guidance is unchanged.
Unit cost guidance for 2025 was...