Sequential growth in 3Q23 production RIO delivered sequential production growth in 3Q23, aside from titanium dioxide slag, and left 2023 guidance unchanged outside of IOC''s pellets and concentrates, which has been revised lower for a second consecutive quarter. Pilbara shipments increased +6% q/q with SP10 a larger proportion of shipments and expected to amount to 45-50Mt (13-15%) for 2023 volumes. RIO continues to expect 2023 shipments in the upper half of the 320-335Mt guidance range (BNPPE: 331Mt). Mined copper increased +17% q/q with the Kennecott concentrator recovering from the conveyor failure in March 2023. Diamonds, having already achieved 89% of the low-end of 2023 production guidance looks the most derisked while IOC, despite two guidance cuts already, is the least at 70% of the low end of the guidance range. Pilbara takeaways The recent Pilbara visit focused on RIO''s ambitions to increase iron ore shipments +7-8% to 345-360Mt over the mid-term while decreasing unit costs to USD 20/t on higher volumes and efficiencies more than offsetting a more difficult mining work index. Gudai-Darri ramp has progressed well, achieving nameplate (43Mtpa) within 12 months of commissioning and phase 2 (incremental 7Mtpa) is expected by 2025. Estimate revisions We update for 3Q23 production results which leads to marginal revisions on 2023 (unch) and 2024 (-3%) EBITDA forecasts. Despite the minor downgrades, we increase our TP to 5,880p (prior 5,730p) on lower discount rate to reflect the latest risk-free rate and equity/country risk premiums. We continue to derive our TP via a 50/50 weighting of ROCE/WACC and DCF. Detailed table of estimate revisions can be found later in this report.