2H24 - strong payout but the rest underwhelmed As hinted at in the December investor seminar, RIO held to its pattern of paying out at the top-end of the 40-60% through-cycle range. We wouldn''t expect them to break from this trend which drives our forecast c6% divi yield for the next several years. Unit cost guidance for both iron ore and copper disappointed as it pointed to a y/y increase in the Pilbara (iron ore) and flat development in Copper vs expectations for a material decrease. Please see our flash note here for a more detailed breakdown of 2H24 results. Estimate revisions Following results, we cut EBITDA by -7%/-5%/-1% in 2025/2026/2027 respectively, driven by the iron ore and copper divisions (revisions table overleaf). For the former, we have integrated RIO''s comment that 1Q25 iron ore shipments have been disrupted by c13Mt as a result of weather and now forecast a quarterly shipment figure of 65Mt (100% basis, vs 1Q24: 78Mt). While RIO has maintained its full-year shipment guidance of 323-338Mt, we''ve now taken down our estimate to be in the lower end of the range (325Mt) vs prior at the mid-point. We''ve also assumed its SP10 volume share maintained 20% for the next several years (2023 23%, prior 5-year average 11%) weighing on averaged realised prices. For copper, we cut EBITDA forecasts by -18%, -14% and -8% over 2025-2027. This was driven by two factors - unit cost guidance coming in ahead of expectations and being slightly too high (above guidance) for the newly defined consolidated copper volumes, which we have corrected for. With group earning forecasts falling, we saw a modest decrease in our TP (-2%) to 5,950p which continues to be derived via an equal weighting of DCF and ROCE/WACC. Reiterate Outperform.