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07 Dec 2023
Investor day - OT on track, pushing Simandou forward

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Investor day - OT on track, pushing Simandou forward
Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON) | 4,358 -1416.5 (-0.7%) | Mkt Cap: 54,657m
- Published:
07 Dec 2023 -
Author:
Brunet Sylvain SBr | Zeng Qiang QZ | Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
13 -
2024 production guidance largely in-line
There was no change to 2023 production guidance vs what was communicated at 3Q23 production results. RIO''s 2024 production guidance was largely in-line with expectations for its major metals - iron ore (Pilbara), copper and aluminium (incl. alumina + bauxite). Capex guidance for up to USD 10.0bn for 2024-2026 (previously 2024-2025) with growth capex of up to USD 3.0bn per annum (unch), dependent on final go ahead on Simandou.
Simandou - with or without us
RIO''s view is that the massive Guinean iron ore project (120Mtpa capacity once ramped for block 1-4) will be developed with or without them. The reserve estimate of 1.5bn tonnes grading 65.3% Fe supports a 26-year mine life, something highly likely to be extended given the 1.4bn tonnes grading 66.1% Fe in resource excluding reserves. RIO targets first ore in 2025 and a 30-month ramp up to reach its attributable 27Mtpa production target. Pilbara shipments (100%) mid-term target of 345-360Mt requires 130Mtpa of replacement capacity to offset 90Mt of depletion from five projects with first ore targeted between 2025 and 2028.
Oyu Tolgoi ramp continues to progress well
No change to Oyu Tolgoi''s targets and more datapoints supporting a ramp-up progressing well. A total of 83 drawbells have been blasted, ahead of schedule. The underground project is 92% complete and 95% of estimated capital has been committed. At Kennecott, the mine will fully transition to renewable diesel from 2024, saving 0.5Mt of CO2 per annum, equivalent to annual emissions of 107,000 passenger cars. Nuton, RIO''s leaching technology, has 6 partnering mines across 4 countries and is showing promising recovery rates (85%) vs conventional concentrating/smelting (20-30%) but it''s still too early to put any economics around it.