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02 Oct 2024
La belle province - site visit takeaways

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La belle province - site visit takeaways
Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON) | 4,344 -1542.2 (-0.8%) | Mkt Cap: 54,478m
- Published:
02 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Zeng Qiang QZ | Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
18 -
Last week we visited RIO''s aluminium business in Quebec, Canada. We came away impressed with the scale of the business, particularly the hydro generation which provides 90% of their regional power needs. Aluminium remains a minority of group EBITDA (16% in 2024-2026) but is a differentiator vs peers as RIO is the largest western producer and a top-5 producer globally.
A bullish long-term view on aluminium markets
RIO forecasts low- to mid-single digit demand CAGR in global aluminium demand, led regionally by North America, secondary over primary and value-add products over remelt. By 2030, RIO targets value-add product volumes to be 50% share of its product offering, with the integration of Matalco being a clear boost on the secondary side (vs 45% in 2023). 2030 targets for an additional 500bps of EBITDA margin is a combination of cost focus on fixed and variable and product offering.
Advancing new technologies in North America
The USD 1.1bn investment to expand the AP60 aluminium smelter at the Complex Jonquiere is progressing well vs budget and schedule, with near-term focus on completing the concrete pour before winter months. Commissioning of the new pots will run over 2.5 years with the smelter fully ramped up by the end of 2026. ELYSIS is always a focal point as the industry has been searching for the inert anode for over 100 years. Currently focused on a demonstration plant, first production is set for 2027 but unlikely to be large enough to be commercial before 2030.
Hydro an underappreciated asset in Quebec
Until seeing the hydro assets in person we underappreciated the scale and flexibility they provided the downstream smelters. The combined power generation in Quebec (6 powerhouses and 3 reservoirs) of 3,150MW provides 90% of their regional power needs and allows electricity to also be sold back to Hydro Quebec opportunistically. The total watershed is 73,800km2 and rainfall in the northern portion generates electricity 5x given the...