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01 Aug 2023
Solid progress in iron ore, looking for stability in H2 copper
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Solid progress in iron ore, looking for stability in H2 copper
Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON) | 5,606 -5381.3 (-1.7%) | Mkt Cap: 70,309m
- Published:
01 Aug 2023 -
Author:
Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
8 -
Iron ore performed well in 1H23 while copper faced headwinds from poor performance at Kennecott. Both are targeting stronger h/h volumes but whereas iron ore is looking to build on strength, copper is trying to regain its footing. WC alleviation will support H2 FCF but be capped by a material step higher in capex.
1H23 wrap
Very much an in-line result vs consensus with Pilbara unit cash costs at the low end of the full-year range in 1H23. FCF was ahead of expectations despite a well flagged USD 0.9bn WC headwind, which should mostly unwind in 2H23. Please see our more detailed breakdown here.
Most vs least de-risked production into H2
Diamond guidance for 2023 (3.0-3.8mcts) is -27% y/y at the mid-point as an underground pipe and area of the open pit at Diavik was completed in 1H23. Guidance looks to be sufficiently rebased as 1H23 diamond production has already achieved 64% of the low end of 2023 guidance. Conversely, IOC has only achieved 46% of the low end in 1H23, but having lost effectively one month of production due to wildfires in Quebec there is a clear pathway to catch up assuming no further material disruptions. Pilbara shipments have been strong, having achieved five quarters of improved operational performance, and RIO is targeting the upper end of guidance and further sequential production growth in 3Q23 and 4Q23.
Estimate tweaks
Post results we trim 2023 and 2024 EBITDA forecasts by -3% and -1%, predominantly driven by downgrades in Minerals and with some offset in Aluminium. Our volume assumptions are left unchanged as we had updated post 2Q23 production results for the respective revisions to guidance. Updated assumptions feeding into the discount rate drives a small TP upgrade to 5,420p (prior 5,260p) which we continue to derive via 50/50 weighting to NPV and ROCE/WACC. Revisions table can be found overleaf. Reiterate Neutral.