ASML has published decent Q3 results. Sales came broadly in line with expectations with record highs. The worrying part comes from its Q4 guidance, which is expected to be below consensus due to supply shortages. It is linked to ASML’s constant push to increase capacity, with some material shortages which slowed down the ramp-up.
Companies: ASML Holding NV
ASML presented its long-term strategy through its capital investor day on 29 September. Through its unique technology, ASML is expecting growth in all its product portfolio. As a result, it has revised its long-term guidance upwards and expects its 2025 revenues between €24bn and €30bn (11% CAGR from 2020 to 2030). These positive updates were expected and our estimates in sales for FY25 are still higher than the upper end of the guidance, leaving limited room for upside.
ASML published a solid Q2 with profits slightly above consensus. The major positive upsides came from its guidance readjustment for a record Q3 and a FY21 35% increase in sales yoy versus 30% previously. It also announced a buy-back programme of €9bn which should be finished by the end of FY23.
ASML released impressive Q1 21 results with both sales and margins above the already ambitious consensus. The guidance for 2021 is significantly improved, as ASML’s sees the shortage of semiconductors lasting into 2022.
ASML released a sound set of figures for the final quarter of the year, highlighting strong demand for its products and beating the street in every respect. This bodes well for 2021, which is expected to be another year of growth, while we see the current guidance as quite conservative.
Overall, the Q3 results were in line, or slightly higher than management’s expectations that reconfirm that 2020 will be a growing year. Cash generation improved in Q3 and is expected to turn significantly positive in Q4, allowing management to resume the share-buy back programme. On a longer-term view, the company gave a conservation flavour for 2021, which is also expected to be another growth year. We maintain a positive view on the company.
We have upgraded our recommendation from Reduce to Add after ASML reached our target price. We anticipate a positive development for the remainder of the year at both the top line and profitability, driven by structural improvements. This should place ASML in a good position to reach and even surpass the €13bn target for FY20 as well as its medium-term target.
The Q1 20 results were within the guidance range along with a strong order book. However, ASML has discontinued providing guidance for the rest of the year due to the considerable uncertainties.
The Q4 report provided no surprises to justify another rally in the stock. The management gave some positive news regarding a come back of its Memory customers as well as an expected pick up in fab equipment spending in 2020, but we believe that this is already discounted in the stock price. Nonetheless, we remain very positive on the long term outlook for the company which will continue to benefit from the inevitable EUV adoption.
ASML has released a good and reassuring publication, in line with consensus, and remains well on track to achieve its full-year guidance. We particularly appreciate the level of net bookings that reached a new record high, providing more visibility to achieve the 2020 objectives. However, Memory demand remains weak and we believe further improvements are needed on that side to justify a strong re-rating.
The company continued to enjoy the sweet spot of its quasi-monopolistic position in the Lithography market and monopolistic one in EUV. Thus, ASML is one of the very few semiconductor equipment companies that will enjoy growth this year, supported by a healthy mix of clients. Therefore, despite the softness on the market, ASML has not changed its FY19 guidance and has reiterated its confidence in fulfilling all of its objectives.
The company unveiled good Q1 19 results, beating the consensus and, most importantly, keeping its view unchanged for the rest of year. The latter is maybe the most important as the market feared a struggle coming from the memory market, and this publication should then clear up fears about the guidance.
ASML reported a strong Q4 in terms of revenue, leading to a record year for 2018. However, ASML’s revenue guidance for the next quarter missed consensus.
• Q4 net sales of €3.1bn (+23% yoy), net income of €788m, gross margin at 44.3%
• ASML has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Nikon to settle a patent dispute leading to the recognition of a €131m provision in 2018
• 2018 revenue of €10.9bn, net income €2.6bn, gross margin at 46%
• 2018 EPS at €6.10 per share vs €4.81 in 2017 (+26%)
ASML reported a qoq sales growth of 20% (+30.4% yoy) while the gross margin dropped from 48.7% in Q1 18 to 43.3% in Q2 18. Due to higher R&D costs, the operating margin followed the same trend, down 2.9pts to 25.2%. Net income grew by 8.1% qoq but also showed a decreasing margin (21.3% from 23.6%). The EPS was, on the contrary, boosted by the share buy-back programme which will not end before 2019 (€1.37/share vs €1.26/share in Q1 18).
ASML reported its quite solid Q1 results this morning, with sales slightly above guidance at €2.28bn. The gross margin also came in above expectations at 48.7%, mainly thanks to volume and mix of DUV and holistic lithography products. The group’s expectations for Q2 came in slightly above what the market anticipated in terms of sales but not in terms of gross margin. In the medium term (2020), ASML expects to see revenues of €11bn with an EPS above €9/share.
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Companies: DX (Group) Plc
Friday's market sell off saw some violent downward moves in many stocks with little initial differentiation between sectors or the key drivers of businesses, creating significant share price drops in a number of higher quality or uncorrelated names. We take a look at some stocks we believe have either seen an unwarranted sell-off, have seen weakness go under the radar or where there is now a more attractive opportunity.
Companies: ANX IBPO CYAN SOM EQT AFM
Seeing Machines has announced that it has been selected as the DMS supplier for automotive programmes through Magna International worth cA$120m and a fundraise of at least US$40m at 11p.
The funds will be used to accelerate growth in the rapidly expanding DMS technology market, across all transport sectors globally. This includes the acceleration of the development of new core software and system features, acquisition of additional specialised technology, expansion of sales channels and produc
Companies: Seeing Machines Limited
Seeing Machines has announced results for its financial year ended June 2021 and, after the 3 August 2021 trading update, there were few surprises in the numbers with the company trading ahead of expectations in terms of margins and cash. This reflects the successful focus by the management on reducing costs and conserving cash. However, with the conclusion of the recent fund raise, we expect the company to change gear to investing in the business and managing for longer term shareholder value.
Whitelee windfarm hydrogen project funding
Companies: ITM Power PLC
The oversubscribed placing to raise £25m and £2m open offer leaves Velocys well placed to move forward on its reference projects and strengthens its ability to address further demand as airlines increasingly seek out sustainable fuelling solutions. We have updated our forecasts for the raise and after a review of project timings. These show that if the company can progress its projects, it is capable of being cashflow positive in FY 24 without recourse to further funding. Our DCF based central c
Companies: Velocys plc
While there remains considerable uncertainty over the planning and permitting of the Uskmouth power station conversion there have been a couple of recent pieces of good news for SIMEC Atlantis in our view. Inclusion of waste-to-energy in the carbon capture support model is potentially positive for Uskmouth and may increase its political attractiveness to the Welsh Government as they consider permitting. The ring fencing of CfD support for tidal steam in the next allocation round opens up the pos
Companies: SIMEC Atlantis Energy Ltd.
The Whitelee project to which ITM is supplying its PEM electrolyser technology has won £9.4m of government funding. We see this project as a key demonstration of the value of co-locating hydrogen production with renewables and indicates a wide market for this key energy storage solution.
Macfarlane Group, the leading protective packaging solutions specialist, servicing clients across the UK
and now emerging into Continental Europe, has issued a trading update this morning (25 November)
covering the period since end June and the year to date. Trading has continued to be robust in a difficult
supply chain environment and the Group now expects to exceed its previous expectations for the full
year. Sales growth for the year to date has accelerated through to October at rate of +2
Companies: Macfarlane Group PLC
The H1 results were a bit of a double check. First, how high hopes (battery materials) persist in a rapidly changing environment, something already communicated to the markets. The second, and a rather annoying one, was how to deal with the issues as management was not really transparent. This explains the strong miss in EBIT compared to the consensus. We were also wrong-footed as our impairment figure was far too low.
Companies: Johnson Matthey Plc
Like Taylor Maxwell before it, management's patience and persistence has landed another prized target, this one HBS NE Limited trading as HBS New Energies and UPOWA, giving Brickability a platform into the fast-growing renewables energy products market. It is Brickability's 13th acquisition in the past three years, will cost a maximum £5.5m and falls within the group's target 4-6x EV/EBITA purchase range thus enhancing earnings whilst broadening the product offering to its core housebuilder cust
Companies: Brickability Group PLC
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Trinistar Liverpool S.a r.L announces its potential listing of a newly formed single asset company which will own the Capital Building in Liverpool on the IPSX. Upon admission the Company would become a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Capital Building occupies close to a 3.5 acre freehold site in the centre of Liverpool’s business district; the building comprises c425,000 square feet of predominantly of
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Oil prices suffered one of the largest ever one-day plunges, crashing more than 11% on Black Friday as a new coronavirus strain sparked fears that renewed lockdowns will hurt global demand. The crash, the 7th largest ever for Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, may prompt the OPEC+ cartel to re-consider its policy when it meets next week, with the group increasingly leaning toward pausing its output hikes. The sell-off was amplified by low liquidity on a festive day in the US, the breach of s
Companies: FO 88E DEC EME GTC TRIN UOG WEN
The trading update confirms that TClarke is on track to meet FY21 expectations signalling a strong recovery from the pandemic-hit 2020 with revenues +47%, H2 margins back at 3%, underlying EPS +50% and net cash of c£5m in the year-end balance sheet. The highlight, in support of its target £500m turnover by 2023, is continued improvement in the order book, currently at £525m (end June £503m) including a record £320m (+25%) secured for a year out. This is not ‘being bought' but comes with a real s
Companies: TClarke plc
LTHM announced exceptional results for H1F22 ended 30 September 2021. H1F22 revenue reached £193.9m, +81.2% over H1F21 of £107m. This is notably a stellar first half driven by demand-supply imbalances in global markets that have resulted following the pandemic. Resulting PAT of £26.6m translates to EPS of £1.335 vs. £0.256 in H1F21.
Companies: James Latham Plc