Whilst it is no coincidence that this initiation note was published shortly after the release of interim 2025 results, the author has every intention of diverting the readers’ attention elsewhere. Equally, this note also promises to refrain from reading too much into any sightings of green shoots. For consolidation remains the primary value driver given the fragmented and cyclical nature of the packaging equipment industry. Led by acquisitions, Mpac’s revenues have nearly tripled since 2019 but we estimate that it still has a c2% share of the total addressable market. After the recent fall in the share price, we expect management to focus solely on consolidating its resources and growing market share organically. Even if investors are not seduced by the prospects of higher and sustainable profits from a consolidating industry, they cannot ignore a multiple of 0.8x 2025 forecast revenues representing a 34% discount to average of publicly traded peers.