In the week to 1 May the FTSE All Share rose 1.2% vs. the Insurance Index at +0.5% and 0.9% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+2.5%); Beazley (-0.2%) was the worst performer. The Q1 reporting season has begun: newsflow has been mixed with a number of US insurers reporting improved PBT/rates, but also loss creep, higher Q1 losses and warnings from brokers about stalling rate rises ahead of the key Jun/Jul US renewals. The 2018 hurricane season starts 1 June with consensus for sli
Companies: BEZ HUW HSX JLT LRE
In the week to 24 April the FTSE All Share rose 2.6% vs. the Insurance Index at +1.8% and 0.0% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performers were Helios* (+7.0%) and Beazley (+1.5%); Hiscox (-1.1%) was the worst performer. Following last week’s analysis of the issue of underinsurance with the 2017 cat losses, we look at the growing risk of a Californian earthquake – not necessarily in San Francisco but along the Hayward Fault. Latest analysis suggests an insured loss of cUS$30bn but an economic los
In the week to 17 April the FTSE All Share fell -0.3% vs. the Insurance Index at +0.5% and +0.2% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Lancashire (+4.0%); Helios* (-2.3%) and JLT (-0.8%) were the worst performers. Swiss Re’s sigma analysis of the 2017 insured losses highlights the material protection gap. It estimates the total insured losses from the 2017 catastrophes at US$144bn vs. total economic losses of US$337bn, giving a cat risk protection gap of US$193bn (57%). Herein lies a pot
In the week to 10 April the FTSE All Share rose 3.0% vs. the Insurance Index at +1.5% and +0.8% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Hiscox (+3.0%); Lancashire (-2.2%) was the worst performer. We look at the first forecasts for the 2018 hurricane season. These early estimates suggest a slightly elevated level of windstorm activity – and an increase in US landfall probability. Of course, it is the if/where of the latter that holds the greatest risk of insured loss and, in 2018, will be a
In the week to 3 April the FTSE All Share rose 0.4% vs. the Insurance Index at +0.8% and +0.8% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Lancashire (+2.8%); JLT (-1.9%) was the worst performer. This week we review the 1 April renewals, where prices were as muted as we expected. Ongoing competition dampened rate movements where accounts were loss free. It was always going to be a big ask to get those not affected by the 2017 cats to pay up – and they didn’t. Interestingly, M&A is picking up,
In the week to 27 March the FTSE All Share fell -1.0% vs. the Insurance Index at -1.8% and 0.2% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Beazley (+4.3%); Helios* (-3.1%) and Hiscox (-1.6%) were the worst performers. We remind investors of the growing cyber hacking threat to energy providers, especially in the US. Several speciality insurers are already teaming up with energy experts, eg Beazley and Energy Insurance Mutual, to look to provide customised cover for this risk but the insured ex
In the week to 13 March the FTSE All Share rose 0.1% vs. the Insurance Index at +1.7% and +3.3% for the Lloyd’s Index. As M&A speculation rose among the Bermudian underwriters, the best performer was Hiscox (+6.4%); Lancashire (-1.3%) wasthe worst performer. We often talk of the band of global specialist (re)insurers that Beazley, Hiscox and Lancashire belong to. In the table below, we rank the key players by market cap (in USD), splitting out the major European players. What stands out is the P
In the week to 6 March the FTSE All Share fell -1.6% vs. the Insurance Index at -2.7% and -0.3% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Lancashire (+3.3%); JLT (-6.4%) post its FY17 results, was the worst performer. This week we look at the data on actual US property/casualty rate changes in Q4 2017 and Jan 2018. This has a bearing on the outlook for (re)insurers and the drivers behind the latest M&A moves ie the AXA bid for XL Catlin at 1.5x NAV/2.0x TNAV and AIG’s acquisition of Validus
2017 tested the global re/insurance market but we believe the quoted Lloyd’s insurers responded well. The results also highlighted the very different underwriting strategies, especially between Lancashire and Beazley/Hiscox. Lancashire’s underwriting loss, given the 2017 catastrophes, should not have surprised shareholders, nor the fact that Hiscox had an FX exposure. In this report we review the FY results in more detail.
Companies: BEZ HSX LRE
In the week to 27 February the FTSE All Share rose 0.5% vs. the Insurance Index at +1.9% and +1.3% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+5.6%); Helios* (-3.7%) and Beazley (-1.6%) were the worst performers. This week we review the FY2017 results from Beazley, Hiscox and Lancashire. Beazley reported the highest PBT and ROE (8.7%), helped by a strong investment yield. Lancashire’s loss was expected given its higher cat/reinsurance exposure and the 2017 losses. Hiscox was hit by FX lo
In the week to 20 February the FTSE All Share rose 1.3% vs. the Insurance Index at +1.2% and -1.9% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+0.2%); Lancashire (-14.6%) was the worst performer, reflecting the (overdone in our view) share price fall post its FY17 results. This week we look at the wide range of combined ratios being reported for 2017. The variation reflects the portfolio split, (short/long/cat etc), as well as the quality of underwriting (cf Aspen closing its unit). NB a
FY17 was expected to be negative given its US cat-focus, but the -US$72.9m disappointed vs. consensus. Nevertheless, the share price reaction is overdone, in our view and hence we move to Buy from Add. Lancashire is not facing a serious impairment issue and its short tail and direct focus leave it well positioned for this slow market turn with c75% of the book already seeing price rises. Rates in its core classes have already improved YoY (+5% on average). We reiterate ourslow burn view, seeing
Companies: Lancashire Holdings Limited
In the week to 13 February the FTSE All Share rose 0.4% vs. the Insurance Index at +3.6% and +2.7% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Beazley post its FY17 results (+4.8%); JLT (-0.6%) was the worst performer. We review the recent Alpha (Lloyd’s) Market Analysis. It reports a wide range of rate rises for most short tail lines at January 2018 and suggests there is potentially more to (gradually) come despite a ‘disappointing’ reinsurance renewal. This supports our view of rates: we con
In the week to 6 February the FTSE All Share fell -5.8% vs. the Insurance Index at -3.4% and -5.3% for the Lloyd’s Index. The sector was inevitably caught up in the recent market correction, but valuations remain pretty robust. The best performer was Beazley (-3.6%); Hiscox (-7.0%) was the worst performer. The FY17 results season has kicked off: Beazley reports today, then Lancashire and Hiscox. We provide a broad comparison of the three insurers to highlight their differences – and a guide as t
In the week to 30 January the FTSE All Share fell -1.8% vs. the Insurance Index at +0.7% and -0.1% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Hiscox (+1.8%); JLT (-3.4%) was the worst performer. Allianz’s 2018 Risk Barometer reviews perils from more of an insurer viewpoint than the WEF survey. For the first time, BI and Cyber risk exposure are seen virtually on a par. Following the 2017 losses, natural catastrophe risks are back in the top three. Fear drives demand: encouragingly these are ma
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The quarter enjoyed the ongoing recovery in revenue margins and net provision releases further boosted by a portion of the announced tax gains. The question is not at what pace profitability will recover but instead at what pace will it normalise? In the meantime, the group is accumulating excess capital that will be returned to shareholders.
Companies: Lloyds Banking Group plc
Duke has provided a positive Q1/21 update, confirming a record quarterly cash revenue, exceeding results seen prior to COVID-19. This evidences Duke's successful navigation of the pandemic and the strength of its portfolio, where NAV has remained above 30p p/s. Q2/22 should see cash revenues materially rise to c£3.2m given recent deployments, boding well for future DPS uplifts. Our forecasts remain unchanged, awaiting further deployments, but we see great upside potential via FV gains, as tradin
Companies: Duke Royalty Limited
The quarter enjoyed stronger-than-expected provision releases and a partial reversal of the first quarter negative equity adjustments, whereas the DTA remeasurement offset ongoing restructuring charges.
Companies: Barclays PLC
Companies: Oakley Capital Investments
Avation is a lessor of 44 aircraft to a diversified airline client base of 19 commercial airlines across 15 countries. This morning, the group has provided a brief update as of 30 June 2021, which points to an impairment review having been completed in line with its standard accounting policies across its turboprop, narrow-body and wide-body fleet. The net impact is to reduce the book value of the fleet by c.$32m, which follows on from the H1 2021A impairment of $46.7m. Management believes that
Companies: Avation PLC
Companies: Brewin Dolphin Holdings PLC
TPFG has delivered an impressive H1/21E trading update, confirming a doubling of interim revenues. The result reflects a buoyant sales market and only a partial contribution from sales-focused Hunters, whose March 2021 purchase looks astute. Given sales pipelines remain robust (set to convert largely over H2/21E); the 73k managed properties continue to provide a high degree of recurring & transactional income; and Ewemove continues to scale quickly, we view the outlook positively. Despite the sh
Companies: Property Franchise Group PLC
Duke has today confirmed its second new royalty partner this month, through a £7.7m agreement with InTec Business Solutions (InTec). The deal, disclosed in April's placing, sees Duke re-establish exposure to the technology sector (following Welltel's earlier exit), maintains portfolio diversification and takes the current royalty portfolio to eleven partners. Should the other disclosed deal from the placing be executed as planned, we would expect to revise FY22E forecasts. The stock currently tr
Trident Royalties Plc (AIM: TRR) has, this morning, announced the appointment of Mr Peter Bacchus as Non-Executive Director with immediate effect with James Kelly stepping down to pursue other business interests. We would also like to highlight the favourable development at Thacker Pass Lithium Project, over which Trident holds a Gross Revenue Royalty (GRR), where a federal judge denied a motion from four environmental groups to stop digging at the planned lithium mine.
Companies: Trident Royalties Plc
Ground Rents Income Fund (GRIO) has today released its Interim Results for the period ending 31 March 2021. The NAV fell by 1.1% to £101.4m (104.5 pps). Dividends of 1.98p have been paid over the six month period, but going forward the Board have announced that they will be reducing the annual dividend target to 3.0pps and expect the dividend to be fully covered by the year ending 30 Sep 2022. At the AGM in March, shareholders approved the authority for the Company to purchase up to 14.99% of it
Companies: Ground Rents Income Fund PLC
Altus Strategies* (ALS LN) - La Mancha launches La Mancha Fund, a Luxembourg based long only fund dedicated primarily to gold mining.
Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – Kiziltepe production guidance maintained
Castillo Copper (CCZ LN) – Quarterly report highlights the ‘Big One' prospect
Chaarat Gold (CGH LN) – Robust Kapan production in H1/21 with Tulkubash funding completion pushed to Q3/21
Glencore (GLEN LN) – Glencore to pay $9.85m to settle zinc rigging dispute
Jervois Mining (JRV AU) – Jervoi
Companies: SO4 ALS AAU CGH GLEN POW TYM CCZ JRV LYC
What a difference a year makes - 12 months ago, the focus, quite understandably, was on the course of the pandemic and the lifting of the Lockdown (1) measures. For investors, it was the sustainability of the rally in markets seen since March 2020. Today, while we are still thinking about the lifting of lockdown measures, we are also concerned about two “old favourites” from previous decades. Inflation and the parlous state of public finances. The BoE has said that although CPI inflation rose to
Companies: AEMC BVC BAG BRSD BWNG CBOX CEG CTG CLG CML CRPR DNK EML ESC FAR FA/ GPH INSE MTW MOTR MMAG NRR NESF NMCN NSF OTMP OBD SAVE SCS STVG SNX SYS TMG TGL VLS VOG WYN
Companies: Harworth Group PLC
DSM offers a rare opportunity to gain exposure to a concentrated portfolio of UK micro-cap stocks, an area of the market which is often overlooked. The portfolio has navigated the pandemic well, with most holdings having either returned to or exceeded pre-Covid levels. The companies have also emerged from the crisis in a much stronger position with far more operationally efficient business models. A series of positive trading updates and director buying across 60% of the portfolio since the star
Companies: Downing Strategic Micro-Cap Investment Trust PLC GBP
Record’s assets under management equivalent (AUME) has continued to grow in Q122 with net inflows including the launch of the new Record Emerging Market Sustainable Finance Fund. This is the first of several new product initiatives to be realised and will contribute to diversification of revenues. The group is also continuing to focus on modernisation and succession to support future growth.
Companies: Record plc