Jarvis Securities - Interest strong if trading volumes dull; Skilled Person Review prompts enhancements

FY22A results from JIM this morning reflect contrasting trends during the year within its main businesses, while also being set against the backdrop of the Skilled Persons Review. The company provides an efficient and cost-effective trading product together with an outsourced settlements and administration operation. JIM's execution only trading business suffered the effects of dull transaction volumes last year following a post-Covid burst of activity in the markets. Conversely, the interest

WH Ireland: Jarvis Securities (JIM) - Q4 DPS payment provides affirmation notwithstanding Skilled Person's review

We note today's Q4-22 2.5p dividend announcement from JIM – 0.5p ahead of our revised FY22E forecast post the announcement of the Skilled Persons review on September 16th. The Review (on a voluntary basis) placed certain restrictions on JIM, though these affected only certain existing clients (and not in turn their clients). Notwithstanding those developments, we view this morning's announcement as serving to confirm that the company continues to be a beneficiary of the dramatic shift which we

WH ireland: Jarvis Securities (JIM) - Skilled persons review – modest changes to dividend line

We note Friday's RNS from JIM announcing that part of their business is subject to a Section 166 review and that there are restrictions in relation to certain of its Model “B" clients. JIM provides an efficient and cost-effective trading product together with an outsourced settlements and administration operation. The latter, intended largely for wealth managers, including IHT and pension schemes, fund managers and stockbrokers, is the Model “B” business stream alluded to in the announcement.

WH Ireland: Sector News and Views – Corporate - dollar earner picks in a changing landscape

A year on from the end of lockdown on July 19 2021, celebrations at the UK's economic bounce-back in H2-21 have long lost their fizz. Two intertwined themes have remained salient / gathered pace over the past six months since our mid-year sector review: exchange rates and inflation. As we write today, press speculation is focussing on the possibility of a 0.5% rise in UK interest rates in August, billed as the biggest move in 27 years. Looking further afield, economists are looking to the F

WH Ireland: Jarvis Securities (JIM) - H1 down as flagged; interest income grows in another year of two halves

This morning's H1 results from JIM reflect a continuation of the quieter trading conditions which developed in H2-21 and as expected show YoY declines (see our research of 10/3/22). JIM provides an efficient and cost-effective trading product together with an outsourced settlements and administration operation – the latter intended largely for wealth managers, including IHT and pension schemes, fund managers and stockbrokers. The YoY comparator period for these results was exceptionally strong i

WH Ireland: Jarvis Securities (JIM) - FY21A: Meaningful progress; however a year of two halves

Based on a strong H1, the results JIM is reporting this morning for FY21A demonstrate meaningful YoY progress, a significant achievement given the high bar set by the prior year together with the much quieter trading conditions which developed in H2. JIM provides an efficient and cost-effective trading product together with an outsourced settlements and administration operation – the latter intended largely for wealth managers, including IHT and pension schemes, fund managers and stockbrokers.

Jarvis Securities (JIM) - Positive newsflow and improving backdrop leads to new fair value assessment

JIM provides an efficient and cost-effective trading product, together with an outsourced settlements and administration operation – the latter intended largely for wealth managers, including IHT and pension schemes, fund managers and stockbrokers. Positive momentum from the company has been evidenced recently in the group's excellent H1 results (revenue +19% YoY, PBT +28%), which led us to upgrade our PBT expectations by 15% on 15 July.

Jarvise Securities (JIM) - Meaningful 8.5p special dividend payment follows strong H1 results

Last week's results effectively illustrated the strong momentum within JIM's business, with H1 revenues reported up 19% and PBT up 28%, a lift in the operating margin from 53.1% to 56.8% and a strong out-turn on cash in addition. Intra-day on Friday, the company followed up by announcing a Special Dividend of 8.5p, more than double the previous such payment, which was made in 2019. The context was the successful application to the courts for a Capital Reduction. Following the cancellation of

Jarvis Securities (JIM) - H1 results well ahead YoY; new baseline, good momentum and 15% PBT upgrade

Strong results from JIM today (YoY revenues +19%, PBT +28%) reflect healthy trading and the meaningful platform the company has developed in both of its activities. JIM provides an efficient and cost-effective trading product together with an outsourced settlements and administration operation – the latter intended largely for wealth managers, including IHT and pension schemes, fund managers and stockbrokers. We view JIM as well-balanced between its twin operations, and note that in addition

WHI Morning Comment: Jarvis Securities (JIM) - Strong FY20A results – and trading at a higher level this year, significant upside

JIM has reported an excellent set of results this morning, with profits up 43% - nearly double the rate of revenue growth, reflecting the efficiency of the model, strong operational gearing opportunities and self-help in recent years as the company re-set its fee structure and took out costs. JIM provides an efficient and cost-effective trading product together with an outsourced settlements and administration operation – the latter intended largely for wealth managers, including IHT and pensi

WHI Morning Comment: Jarvis Securities (JIM) - Powerful trading momentum, meaningful CY upgrades, 300p fair value

With a highly encouraging 3p (+78% YoY) Q1 dividend announcement yesterday, we upgraded our forecasts meaningfully, by 7%/ PBT and 8% / EPS, taking our cue from a strong start to FY2021E on top of an excellent FY2020E (results next month). JIM provides a cost-effective and efficient trading offering alongside an outsourced settlements and administration operation mainly for wealth managers, including IHT and pension schemes, fund managers and stockbrokers. The two sides of the business are ver

WHI Flash Light: Jarvis Securities (JIM) - DPS at 3p indicates powerful trading momentum, we upgrade EPS +8%, fair value: 300p

We view today's 3p DPS announcement from JIM (+78%) as highly encouraging, indicating a strong start to FY2021E after an excellent FY2020E (to be reported next month, but our forecast suggests profits up 42%). With trading volumes viewed as strong, we take this opportunity to upgrade our FY21E forecasts to revenues £13.85m (was: £13.4m), PBT £7.4m (was £6.95m) and EPS 13.7p (was: 12.7p). JIM provides a cost-effective and efficient trading offering alongside an outsourced settlements and admin

WHI Morning Comment: Jarvis Securities (JIM) - Continuing to progress; forecasts updated to reflect share split

JIM provides a well-calibrated and low-cost trading offering complemented by an outsourced settlements and administration operation mainly for wealth managers, including IHT and pension schemes, fund managers and stockbrokers. Yesterday's DPS announcement set the seal on a strong year from the perspective of the pay-out. At 3.125p, the Q4 dividend rounds off the full year at 11.1p, a remarkable +69% YoY (including the 1p “extra”). H1 results saw PBT lifted 50% YoY reflecting strong average da

WHI Mornign Comment: Jarvis Securities (JIM)

Strong H1 results prompt 24% upgrades; attractive model and underlying drivers JIM has announced outstanding H1 results this morning, showing that the positive drivers highlighted earlier in the year, and which led to previous upgrades, have continued unabated. PBT up 50% YoY reflects average daily volumes which have moved ahead sharply and exceed expectations, coupled with a significant margin uplift. JIM provides a well-designed low-cost trading offering coupled with an outsourced settlem

WHI First Light: Jarvis Securities (JIM) & Oriole Resources (ORR)

Jarvis' announcement this morning that at 11p, the overall DPS for Q2 is being raised 69% YoY (Q2-2018A: 6.5p) follows on from last week's double-digit earnings upgrades which were the result of strong trading so far in the first half of 2020. Strong volumes fuelled our upgrades then, and this morning's RNS again references these powerful drivers for the business in the current environment. This remains unpredictable, but market activity is a positive for Jarvis in whichever direction. Orio

CMD - Broadening & deepening client relationships

A dose of morosity

No change in the narrative. Aviva’s ship sails on as usual. The PRT business is still going well, inflation remains an impediment to a strong P&C improvement, retail customers seem more interested in the rising cost of living than savings’ products and Aviva investors see no real signs of an improvement. This is the same story as in recent quarters and, in that context, our thesis remains the same.

'Airlines will be shocked when Covid leases run out and rates go up’

Morning Note – 24 May 2023

The Opportunity in Short-Termism

Fears vs Fundamentals (again) For 2 years, European banks have enjoyed potent earnings upgrades. For 2 years, valuations have been trapped between ''unease'' and ''outright panic'' multiples. This note looks at the latest fears and fundamentals behind this ongoing struggle. We extract lasting lessons from Q1, a record profit quarter, and extend our work on the fears of the moment: ''peak NIM'', CRE and credit contraction. Peak NIM - no, not yet We refresh our top-down margin work for the late

In the Flow

Industry flows - bond funds remain preferred over equities Risk appetite for equity funds remained subdued with last week seeing $4bn net outflows (negative in 8 of the last 9 weeks). Flows worsened sequentially for Asia/EM categories, but improved for US and European equities. Bond funds saw inflows for a 10th straight week (c.$8bn) with broad based inflows across US government, IG and HY funds. Listed asset managers flows - inflows into ETFs, outflows from mutual funds ETFs net inflows contin

Morning Note – 30 May 2023

NAHL Group plc: AGM update: Continued progress in scaling the business for future growth

NAHL’s AGM statement released today, is encouraging as management continues to scale the businesses for further growth. As a result, the Board’s expectations for the full year remain unchanged and we make no alterations to our forecasts. As a reminder, these still call for a c.13% increase in adjusted PBT in 2023, c.170% in FY24 and a further c.70% in FY25. Our current fair value remains at 65p but this is likely to rise as the Group delivers on its significant potential.

WH Ireland: Avation - Market tailwinds highlighted in Bloomberg Intelligence event

Avation is a lessor of 35 commercial aircraft to a diversified client base of 17 airlines. Yesterday's Bloomberg Intelligence webinar event entitled ‘Aircraft Lessor Recovery and Innovation' reaffirmed a number of positive market trends for aircraft lessors at the present time. Key points included: i) structural deficits in the supply of turboprop aircraft in the coming years, with aircraft retirements expected to outpace limited production of new aircraft; ii) the strong recovery in air travel

This Week's AIM Highlights 19th May

Early Mover in UK Lab-grown Meat

BSF Enterprise Plc (BSF) is a biotechnology company focused on acquiring, combining, and building businesses in the lab-grown tissue space. It aims to achieve this through an acquisition-led growth strategy and has already acquired the tissue engineering and cellular agriculture company, 3D Bio Tissues.

Very strong CY22 - CY23 upgraded 10%

An Asian exploration

We spent last week with HSBC and STAN in Hong Kong and Singapore, delving into the detail of structural drivers for Asia. Both banks have a good story to tell, with business models that are well positioned and being enhanced further. In isolation we did not learn enough to warrant a change in recommendation but tailwinds from the region are not to be overlooked. A deep dive into a core part of the investment case Asia sits at the core of the investment case for both HSBC and STAN given its share

c.60% discount to NAV... Can deep value prevail?

Petershill (PHP) reported a Q1-23 double digit % headline miss on FRE/DE mostly driven by cyclical factors. However, fundraising was resilient including more closings after quarter end and PHP reiterated FY2023 guidance ($220-250m FRE). We remain outperform, 250p target price. Weakness on headline earnings amid a muted industry backdrop Private markets are being tested in 2023 with private equity deal activity down c.50-80% y/y. In this context, the headline Q1 miss was mostly driven by cyclica

Trading update indicates strong FY23 performance