Proposed share-for-share merger with Northgate
Redde’s brief AGM statement outlines an in line Q1 performance. We do not make changes to our forecasts ahead of the key Winter trading period, and will review our estimates at the HY update in December. We believe that the valuation – 9x fwd PER and 10%+ dividend yield – remains at too great a discount, with the recent contract loss overplayed against a backdrop of developing relationships. A 12x fwd PER would point to a 160p/share intrinsic value, with an accompanying 7% yield.
African Export-Import Bank a supranational financial institution whose purpose is to facilitate, promote and expand intra- and extra- African trade, of its potential intention to publish a registration document, the Bank hereby confirms its intention to proceed with an Initial Public Offering. The GDRs are expected to be admitted to the standard listing segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the Main Market of the LSE. DNEG Limited intends to apply for admission of its Shares to the premium listing segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the London Stock Exchange's main market for listed securities. The Offer will be comprised of new Shares to be issued by the Company (to raise expected gross proceeds of £150m). Admission is expected to take place in November 2019.
Companies: SAR REDD HSP KEFI PTR AVG SNX IHC BGO TERN
At a time where UK public market valuations remain subdued, especially given GBP weakness, it seems reasonable to assume the potential for opportunistic private bids may increase. We have long argued the merits of certain business services companies with exposure to the legal sector, and we believe recent private interest in the space supports this. In our view, the demonstrable private intrigue may provide a floor to valuations, leaving significant upside risk; if the public market does not correct this mispricing, private equity or M&A may do.
Companies: ANX GTLY INCE NAH REDD
Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.
Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF
Redde's full-year statement in September has given significant reassurance to the market, and helped the stock regain upward momentum. Earnings-based valuations and the yield remain attractive, while there is clear potential for improved cash flow to fuel further bolt-on acquisitions in what has been a consolidating sector over recent years.
Redde has released final results for the year ending 30 June 2019. Full-year numbers are in line with expectations at adjusted operating level for the year, as management had already confirmed in the 3 July statement, with revenues slightly ahead. Management has also confirmed that current trading is in line with expectations. We make no significant changes to 2020E forecasts, which we increased slightly in July to take account of the final adjustments to the lost contract. The valuations remain attractive, with a dividend yield of 11% underpinned by management's comments that it will at least maintain the dividend.
We appreciate that Redde’s contract loss earlier this year has caused some consternation, but we cannot reconcile the current 8x PER valuation which we think is too deeply discounted. Finals are in line, and several events reinforce the quality and integrity in the business model. We make no material change to earnings and observe the indication that the dividend will be maintained until working capital has been released – resulting in a flat progression. We see considerable shareholder return; from rerating or the material 11%+ yield sustained on strong cash generation.
In January, we provided a list of 11 stocks for 2019 that we believed would perform strongly with attractive catalysts that could lead to material outperformance. In this Quarterly Research Outlook, we revisit these views, analysing what has happened and how the remaining six months of the year could play out.
Companies: AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR HYR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO PCA PANR PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG SOM TWD TRAK TSG TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF
Last week’s pre-close statement provided several updates, with the two main items being that H2 trading was in line with the Board’s expectations and there will be a five-month extension to the large contract that was lost in March.
This morning, Redde released its pre-close statement for the full-year ending 30 June 2019, confirming forecasts are in line with expectations at the revenue and adjusted operating level for the year which helps underpin 2020E forecasts. The shares have been weak into this statement, following the contract loss announced in March.
Redde has issued an in line FY trading update, with case volumes as expected through H2. There have been a number of contract wins and a significant renewal. The run off on the lost contract (previously announced) will now be better than expected – prompting a 4% upgrade to our FY20e PBT forecast. Redde trades on 8x PER and an 11% dividend yield, with the reaction to the contract loss having persisted.
We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.
Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL INCE GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR APP PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF
Management put it aptly – Redde was “obviously disappointed” at losing a contract worth 18% of consensus forecasted sales in FY20. But expecting to more than halve the impact on earnings (adjusted operating profits are expected to be down 8.7% versus consensus) speaks volumes about the adaptability and resilience of their business model. Our revised forecasts still expect a robust dividend –ie given the sharp fall in the share price, a 11% prospective yield.
Redde has lost a large insurer contract. This has no impact on FY19e earnings, but prompts an 8-9% reduction in outer years. Working capital will be released as a result. The reduction in earnings increases the payout ratio but our dividend forecasts remain covered and we leave them unchanged. The dividend is flat yoy in FY19e, before resuming growth. The valuation is at a new low since optimisation began in 2012 – with an 8.0x FY20e PER with a 1.1x covered 11.7% dividend yield.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Redde.
We currently have 76 research reports from 4
A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA
Equals' FY19A results confirm another year of strong, double-digit revenue and adj EBITDA growth. The move to a B2B focused offering continues to progress and looks well timed in view of Covid-19's impact on overseas travel. While the pandemic impacted Q2/20E trading early on, we note June KPI's indicate a positive rebound. Given the continued uncertainty as to Covid's full impact upon FY20E trading, we refrain from reissuing forecasts and thus leave our recommendation under review.
Companies: Equals Group
Accelerating activity in to FY21
Companies: Manolete Partners
Blackbird plc* (BIRD.L, 19.25p/£64.7m) | Mirada plc* (MIRA.L, 92.5p/£8.2m) | Tern plc* (TERN.L, 10.75p/£29.0m) | Checkit plc (CKT.L, 39.5p/£24.5m)
Companies: BIRD MIRA MIRA TERN CKT
Record delivered full year results matching expectations with assets under management equivalent (AUME) slightly ahead as positive inflows more than offset the impact of market moves and fee margins were broadly stable. The group also demonstrated its operational resilience and expertise to clients during the onset of COVID-19 and accompanying volatility. Looking ahead, the group has a fresh focus on growth and to support this is investing in a measured way in IT and its staff.
S4 Capital has announced the merger of Lens10, a leading Australian digital strategy & analytics consultancy, with MightyHive, its data & programmatic media practice. Founded in 2010, Lens10 provides a range of data services including digital strategy, digital analytics, optimisation and tag management. It is a certified Google Partner in Google Analytics, Google Cloud & Google Marketing Platform and is an Adobe Analytics partner. It has 25 data specialists in Melbourne and Sydney, and has a blue-chip client list including CottonOn, National Rugby League, Australian Ballet and ME Bank. Data analytics continues to grow in importance as marketers accelerate their digital transformation and S4 Capital indicates it has seen explosive demand for these services. No financial information has been disclosed, though we note the group reiterates its commitment not to compromise its balance sheet, which remains net cash. Separately, the group has announced that Miles Young, previously Chairman & CEO of Ogilvy, is joining the board. He has particular expertise in creative work and talent, new technologies and Asia Pacific developed over 35yrs at Ogilvy
Companies: S4 Capital
REACT Group plc (REACT) is exploiting a gap in the market for specialist deep cleaning services for customers in the public and private sectors, with revenues split 50/50 between reactive work and regular maintenance. The Covid-19 pandemic has led to a significant upturn in activity in certain sectors (such as healthcare and transport) but temporarily weaker demand from others (such as hospitality). While its Covid-related work is by no means its biggest revenue generator, the legacy of the pandemic is likely to have a profound impact on future levels of activity as all businesses and organisations become more aware of the importance of maintaining high standards of cleanliness and hygiene. With a new management team and strengthened balance sheet, we believe the outlook is positive, a view that has been supported by the Group’s interim results which have generated maiden profits.
Companies: React Group
Wirecard UK’s suspension by the FCA has been lifted, allowing U Account business through Shelby Holdings and Morses Club to resume as normal, permitting customers full access to cash, which was previously frozen, albeit ring-fenced in a safe Barclays UK account. Morses Club has offered its U Account customers free use of the previously affected U Account accounts in July as compensation for the issue, helping to mitigate any negative impact and ensuring the relationship with customers remains strong.
Companies: Morses Club
Companies: AGR CSH ESP DIGS IHR LXI PHP RESI SIR SUPR THRL SOHO BBOX SHED WHR
Hipgnosis Songs Fund (SONG LN) has today announced a trading update for the full year ending 31 March 2020. The unaudited NAV has risen 13% YoY to 116.7p, up 14.3% since the last published NAV of 102.2p as at 10 January 2020. This represents a like for like valuation uplift of 11.4%. All equity has been fully deployed and shareholder approval has been sought to increase net debt from 20% to 30%. Revenue is strong with £64.7m generating an EPS of 10.7p (more than 2x the annual 5p dividend target). NAV growth has been driven by revenue statements which were up 2%, and an increase in streaming growth rate assumptions by the independent valuers. The portfolio comprises 54 catalogues, with 13,291 individual songs, now valued at £757m which was acquired at purchase price of £697m on an acquisition multiple of 13.9x – now valued on 15.0x historical earnings.
Companies: Hipgnosis Songs Fund Ld
FY20 Interim results
Companies: Litigation Capital Management
The covid-19 pandemic has had a devastating effect on the share price of property companies, with 31% wiped off the value of their total market capitalisation during the first quarter of 2020.
Companies: AEWU CREI CSH BOOT INL HLCL THRL SUPR RESI RGL DIGS GR1T SOHO PHP BOXE ASLI UTG AGR UAI BLND UANC CAL SHED CWD WHR EPIC WKP GRI YEW HMSO PCA INTU NRR
A robust set of FY20E numbers and the absence of evidence of material bad debts increases, should reassure today and provide evidence 1pm's multi-product, sector diverse, hybrid model can deliver in tougher conditions. Given a NAV p/s of 62p (30p tangible), which now includes enhanced Covid-19 provisions, the material discount to book is clearly unwarranted.
FY20 results – increased firepower to acquire
Companies: First Property Group
Gore Street has moved a meaningful proportion of its 900MW pipeline into exclusivity with agreements covering a 81MW operating site and a 50MW project in development, both in the GB market. These add to the recent announcements of projects in Scotland and near London. Power storage continues to offer the opportunity to acquire projects that will deliver the fund’s target 10% IRR and we think there is plenty more to go for.
Companies: Gore Street Energy Storage Fund