Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Redde. We currently have 76 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
Redde’s brief AGM statement outlines an in line Q1 performance. We do not make changes to our forecasts ahead of the key Winter trading period, and will review our estimates at the HY update in December. We believe that the valuation – 9x fwd PER and 10%+ dividend yield – remains at too great a discount, with the recent contract loss overplayed against a backdrop of developing relationships. A 12x fwd PER would point to a 160p/share intrinsic value, with an accompanying 7% yield.
African Export-Import Bank a supranational financial institution whose purpose is to facilitate, promote and expand intra- and extra- African trade, of its potential intention to publish a registration document, the Bank hereby confirms its intention to proceed with an Initial Public Offering. The GDRs are expected to be admitted to the standard listing segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the Main Market of the LSE. DNEG Limited intends to apply for admission of its Shares to the premium listing segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the London Stock Exchange's main market for listed securities. The Offer will be comprised of new Shares to be issued by the Company (to raise expected gross proceeds of £150m). Admission is expected to take place in November 2019.
Companies: SAR REDD HSP KEFI PTR AVG SNX IHC BGO TERN
At a time where UK public market valuations remain subdued, especially given GBP weakness, it seems reasonable to assume the potential for opportunistic private bids may increase. We have long argued the merits of certain business services companies with exposure to the legal sector, and we believe recent private interest in the space supports this. In our view, the demonstrable private intrigue may provide a floor to valuations, leaving significant upside risk; if the public market does not correct this mispricing, private equity or M&A may do.
Companies: ANX GTLY INCE NAH REDD
Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.
Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF
Redde's full-year statement in September has given significant reassurance to the market, and helped the stock regain upward momentum. Earnings-based valuations and the yield remain attractive, while there is clear potential for improved cash flow to fuel further bolt-on acquisitions in what has been a consolidating sector over recent years.
Redde has released final results for the year ending 30 June 2019. Full-year numbers are in line with expectations at adjusted operating level for the year, as management had already confirmed in the 3 July statement, with revenues slightly ahead. Management has also confirmed that current trading is in line with expectations. We make no significant changes to 2020E forecasts, which we increased slightly in July to take account of the final adjustments to the lost contract. The valuations remain attractive, with a dividend yield of 11% underpinned by management's comments that it will at least maintain the dividend.
We appreciate that Redde’s contract loss earlier this year has caused some consternation, but we cannot reconcile the current 8x PER valuation which we think is too deeply discounted. Finals are in line, and several events reinforce the quality and integrity in the business model. We make no material change to earnings and observe the indication that the dividend will be maintained until working capital has been released – resulting in a flat progression. We see considerable shareholder return; from rerating or the material 11%+ yield sustained on strong cash generation.
In January, we provided a list of 11 stocks for 2019 that we believed would perform strongly with attractive catalysts that could lead to material outperformance. In this Quarterly Research Outlook, we revisit these views, analysing what has happened and how the remaining six months of the year could play out.
Companies: AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR HYR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO PCA PANR PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG SOM TWD TRAK TSG TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF
Last week’s pre-close statement provided several updates, with the two main items being that H2 trading was in line with the Board’s expectations and there will be a five-month extension to the large contract that was lost in March.
This morning, Redde released its pre-close statement for the full-year ending 30 June 2019, confirming forecasts are in line with expectations at the revenue and adjusted operating level for the year which helps underpin 2020E forecasts. The shares have been weak into this statement, following the contract loss announced in March.
Redde has issued an in line FY trading update, with case volumes as expected through H2. There have been a number of contract wins and a significant renewal. The run off on the lost contract (previously announced) will now be better than expected – prompting a 4% upgrade to our FY20e PBT forecast. Redde trades on 8x PER and an 11% dividend yield, with the reaction to the contract loss having persisted.
We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.
Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL INCE GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR APP PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF
Management put it aptly – Redde was “obviously disappointed” at losing a contract worth 18% of consensus forecasted sales in FY20. But expecting to more than halve the impact on earnings (adjusted operating profits are expected to be down 8.7% versus consensus) speaks volumes about the adaptability and resilience of their business model. Our revised forecasts still expect a robust dividend –ie given the sharp fall in the share price, a 11% prospective yield.
Redde has lost a large insurer contract. This has no impact on FY19e earnings, but prompts an 8-9% reduction in outer years. Working capital will be released as a result. The reduction in earnings increases the payout ratio but our dividend forecasts remain covered and we leave them unchanged. The dividend is flat yoy in FY19e, before resuming growth. The valuation is at a new low since optimisation began in 2012 – with an 8.0x FY20e PER with a 1.1x covered 11.7% dividend yield.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Redde. We currently have 76 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
|24Mar20 07:00||RNS||Board Changes & Covid-19 Business Update|
|17Mar20 14:41||PRN||Correction : Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|17Mar20 13:41||PRN||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|13Mar20 14:00||PRN||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|11Mar20 09:54||RNS||NOTIFICATION OF MAJOR HOLDINGS|
|02Mar20 14:40||RNS||NOTIFICATION OF MAJOR HOLDINGS|
|02Mar20 14:33||RNS||NOTIFICATION OF MAJOR HOLDINGS|
Alpha has released an update today, which highlights the impacts of the recent global lockdown and extreme FX volatility on the trading and working capital of their clients. We have reduced this year’s revenue forecast by 14% and EPS by 24%. We show the Company has sufficient capital to hit these revised forecasts and importantly has a business model, capital structure, technology platform and client proposition to continue to take share and return to high-growth when economies normalise.
Companies: Alpha Fx Group
Belvoir’s FY 2019 results were strong, with adj. EPS up 13% (13.6p vs our forecast 13.0p) and strong cash generation. COVID-19 will affect property sales in FY 2020 but lettings (61% of 2019 gross profit) will be more resilient, helped by the Government’s measures to support employment and incomes. Management has reacted quickly, reducing costs and putting plans in place to support franchisees. We now forecast a ‘lost year’ in FY 2020, assuming five months of no sales activity, a significant reduction in financial services and a reduction in lettings fees, partly offset by a £1.5m cost reduction. The capital light franchise model, inherent high levels of cash generation and no final dividend for 2019 mean we forecast gross cash of £2.0m at December 2020, down from £3.6m. Belvoir is in good financial shape to weather the storm and support its franchisees before returning to normal activity. The success of the strategy was again evidenced by a strong start to 2020 prior to COVID-19.
Companies: Belvoir Lettings
The scaling of Duke's royalty portfolio was progressing as expected up to March 2020, with record cash receipts that month. Due to Covid-19 and the UK's economic shutdown, macro conditions have worsened and become highly uncertain. This is likely to see some royalty partners' future cash royalties decline, which in turn, will negatively impact FV's in the FY20E results. Duke's high margin and cash generative nature ensures it is well placed to trade through these challenges. Given the degree of uncertainty in outlook, we remove forecasts and put our recommendation Under Review and await further clarity on the portfolio.
Companies: Duke Royalty
The Coronavirus pandemic is a human tragedy of vast proportions – as well as the terrible human toll, COVID-19 has led to economies across the globe going into physical lockdown and financial freefall. Entire populations are adapting to the “stay at home” edict, to safeguard the vulnerable – and some of these changes will lead to long-lasting or perhaps permanent changes in the way we live or work. This note describes some of our client companies whose business models are well adapted to these changes, or who might see a change in long-term structural demand.
Companies: AMO BGO FDM GAMA KAPE LOOP TERN ZOO
We believe that NSF’s response to the current pandemic is in the interests of all its stakeholders. The operational shift towards remote working helps protect its staff whilst enabling its clients to continue to access the services they need. Similarly, its decision to reduce lending and focus on its existing clients and those most in need, is the prudent thing to do. These actions, combined with the high risk-adjusted margins on its existing loan book should enable the group to generate positive cash flow, even allowing for an increase in impairment during the current period of economic uncertainty. This should leave the group in a stronger position to serve its clients and win share when the current government restrictions are lifted. As a result, of this medium-term outlook we reiterate our BUY rating.
Companies: Non-Standard Finance
Appreciate saw trading in line with expectations until the end of February, but the closure of fulfilment locations in response to COVID-19 has seen a substantial drop in billings in the past week. Management is withdrawing its guidance, but will provide an update in the second half of April. Meanwhile, the interim dividend (£2m) will not be paid and the FY dividend will be reviewed in June (c. £4m). We see the net cash balance sheet as strong enough to weather the storm. The company’s digital first strategy will accelerate and help to mitigate the pressure on physical vouchers. We will review our estimates in April, but we think that a CY20E EV/EBIT of 3.8x on existing numbers more than reflects the downside risks.
Companies: Appreciate Group
Covid-19's future impact is likely to overshadow FY19A results which delivered YoY growth, despite imposition of the tenant fee ban and the backdrop of a subdued lettings/sales market. With franchisee premises and the UK housing market now closed, FY20E trading will be materially affected and growth strategies (financial services, assisted acquisitions) are now on hold. The group will fall back on its recurring lettings revenue, streamlined cost base and debt-free balance sheet to seek profitable trading and positioning for a market rebound in FY21E. Given uncertainty as to Covid-19's duration and severity, we put our recommendation Under Review and withdraw forecasts awaiting further clarity.
Companies: Property Franchise Group
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Numis expects to report H120 revenues c 10% higher than in H119 with revenue from investment banking slightly down and equities ahead on the back of increased market volatility. Given the impact of the pandemic we have provided indicative scenarios rather than a point estimate for FY20. Numis is strongly capitalised and has net cash of over £84m. Looking beyond the current dislocation, it is well positioned to serve its corporate client base in a period in which the need for fresh equity and a revival in corporate transactions could drive a sharp recovery in activity.
Companies: Numis Corporation
Best idea of the week - CLS and the Real Estate Sector
FY Results – Significant strategic progress and well positioned for 2020 Digitalbox is an AIM-quoted digital publishing company, currently owning two distinct digital media assets and with a scalable platform to grow through acquisitions. This morning's FY2019 results evidence the substantial progress the company made in 2019 at both a financial and operating level and with a very robust balance sheet to capitalise on future M&A opportunities. The company reported revenue of £2.24m and a reported adjusted EBITDA of £0.53m, which after adjusting for prepaid costs from 2018 with respect to Facebook marketing cost, yields an EBITDA of £0.63m. Whilst key operating KPI's for 2019 were very strong y-o-y, and Q1:2020 is said to have traded ‘ahead of management expectations', increased traffic to their assets will likely be offset by increased pressure in advertising spend in 2020. As such, we prudently reduce our FY2020E and FY2021E adjusted PBT estimates by 35% and 22% to £0.59m and £0.74m respectively. Revenue and profitability is H2 weighted, and thus it is possible that the company might experience positive momentum in advertising spend, but it's too early to call. Assuming a 10x FY2020E EV/EBITDA multiple, we see fair value at 9.3p.
Gross profits up 50%: As with all litigation funders, we focus on the gross profits as this reflects the net gain on investments. Pleasingly, GP was 50% ahead of the comparable period following settlements of cases and, mainly, developments in ongoing matters (fair value uplifts). Whilst realised GP fell from c.£2.2m to c.£1.0m, Management expects increased cash realisations in H2 given the 32 live cases that are in advanced settlement stages. Indeed, Manolete has received an additional £0.8m of settlements since the period close. As at 7 November 2019, ROIC remains at a market leading 159% (last reported 180%), which could be skewed upwards in H2 should these advanced cases settle favourably.
Companies: Manolete Partners
1pm has provided a trading update outlining its response to the current Covid-19 outbreak. Operations continue as usual (remotely) and the group continues to write new business, however, it has received multiple requests for repayment deferrals. The group is offering this flexibility where merited to assist credit worthy UK SMEs and has the balance sheet to absorb these lower cash collections. 1pm's own funders remain supportive to the business. Given the uncertainty over the duration of the outbreak and the impact the UK's shutdown is having on 1pm's trading, we withdraw forecasts and put our recommendation under review.
Favourable trading conditions have led to Plus500 issuing its second trading update in less than a month. Not only has the recent surge in volatility resulted in a significant increase in client activity, the strength of the group’s platform and brand has helped it deliver stronger user growth during Q1’20. The combination of the strong financial and operational performance sees us upgrade our FY20 PBT estimate by 52%. Despite the clear opportunity for the company to continue to win market share and deliver profitable growth, the shares trade on just 6.6x CY21 earnings. As a result, we reiterate our BUY rating and increase our TP to 1450p (from 1000p).