Since we last wrote on CTPE, the fund has re-rated from a 43% discount to a 18.7% discount and has delivered on our April 2025 expectations. Our outlook was, and remains, for a multi-stage recovery. This involves an initial narrowing from 43% to c.20%, followed by further progress as confidence returns and earnings growth feeds through to NAV. In our view, stage one has now occurred. Future returns should be driven by NAV growth, augmented by further discount narrowing. Historically CTPE has delivered c.14%pa TR (simple average). We expect CTPE’s future NAV performance to mean-revert to the long-term average, from c.-2-4%pa recently. Trading on a 18.7% discount & yielding 5%, CTPE offers well-managed exposure to private equity’s lower mid-market.
