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  • 30 Jul 2025

Investment Companies Research - UKWG.L (Buy): Disappointing H1, impacted by low wind speeds


Greencoat UK Wind Plc (UKW:LON) | 107 -1.9 (-1.6%) | Mkt Cap: 2,362m


  • Investec Bank
    • Alan Brierley | Ben Newell | Elliott Hardy

    • 6 pages


 

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Investment Companies Research - UKWG.L (Buy): Disappointing H1, impacted by low wind speeds


Greencoat UK Wind Plc (UKW:LON) | 107 -1.9 (-1.6%) | Mkt Cap: 2,362m


  • Published: 30 Jul 2025
  • Author: Alan Brierley | Ben Newell | Elliott Hardy
  • Pages: 6
  • Investec Bank


Investec view: UKW had a disappointing first half with portfolio generation of 2,581GWh 14% below budget owing to lower wind resource (12% below budget). This also comes despite UKW materially reducing its energy yield estimates at the year end. Net cash generated by the company in H1 was £163m and the resultant underlying dividend cover was 1.4x (vs. 1.7x budget), although we note that UKW does not amortise its Topco debt (only the project debt at Hornsea 1 is amortising), unlike most peers, and therefore typically reports higher dividend cover than others. The NAV fell by 7.8p/share to 143.4p/share, principally reflecting lower than budgeted cash generation and a reduction in forecast power prices (-7.3p/share). 2025-26 forward curves were down 10-15% compared to 31 December (c.-3p/share) and down 5-10% at the long-end (c.4p/share). This is a difficult set of results given the fall in NAV, reduction in dividend cover and generation continuing to trend below (reduced) budgets, however the share price has performed strongly of late since April lows despite the challenging fundamentals. We calculate that the company trades on a modest EV/EBITDA (last 12 months) multiple of c.9.0x, and a prospective steady-state return at the current share price of over 12.0% p.a. We believe this remains attractive, although we would highlight that this return is predicated on cashflow generation being in line with the budget per the NAV. On balance we retain our Buy recommendation. Capital Allocation: UKW also announced the partial disposals of Andershaw, Bishopthorpe and Hornsea 1 wind farms for £181m (including the reduction in limited recourse project finance debt at Hornsea 1), with the disposal prices in line with the reduced 30 June NAV. The Chair commented that the Board is committed to the company’s second buyback programme (additional £100m buyback commitment outlined in February 2025, which has c.£69m remaining), and excess cash, including the proceeds from disposals, will likely be applied to reduce gearing. However, over the medium term, given the significant need for capital in the sector, there should be investment opportunities that surpass the returns afforded by share buybacks and de-gearing, especially when viewed over a longer-term horizon. The Board and Investment Manager will continue to evaluate suitable investments and will remain strategically opportunistic. Dividend: The company continues to target a dividend of 10.35p/share for 2024 which has increased for each of the 12 years since launch by at least RPI.

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