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29 Feb 2024
Investment Companies Research - UKWG.L (Buy): Excess cash generation provides flexibility

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Investment Companies Research - UKWG.L (Buy): Excess cash generation provides flexibility
Greencoat UK Wind Plc (UKW:LON) | 110 -1.4 (-1.2%) | Mkt Cap: 2,413m
- Published:
29 Feb 2024 -
Author:
Alan Brierley | Ben Newell -
Pages:
6 -
Investec view: The NAV at 31 December 2023 was 164.1p/share, a reduction of 3p/share (1.8%) over the full year. Key drivers included an increase in discount rates (-11.4p/share), depreciation (-5.1p/share) and lower power prices (-12.0p/share), offset by inflation (+5.7p/share), accretive investments (7.5p/share) and other movements (+3.3p/share) including the recognition of REGOs. Generation of 4,743GWh was materially below budget (-13%) owing to low wind resource (-7%) during the period. Despite this, cash generation remained strong, and the dividend was covered 2.1x.
The company has maintained a disciplined approach to capital allocation and was able to invest £821m into Dalquhandy, London Array, South Kyle and Kype Muir Extension wind farms, increasing net generating capacity by 397MW. UKW had committed to acquire South Kyle and Kype Muir in 2020 and recognised significant uplifts upon completion, primarily as a result of the improved power price environment compared to when the acquisitions were agreed. The company also increased its 2023 dividend to 10.0pshare (original target was 8.76p/share) with a final quarter dividend of 3.43p/share. The target dividend for 2024 is also 10p/share, an increase of 14.2% above the original base for 2023, and significantly above December’s RPI of 5.2%. UKW also announced a £100m buyback programme in Q4 2023 although we note that it has only used c.£20m to date; given the material discount to NAV at which the shares currently trade, we would hope to see the intensity of the buyback increase so that the NAV accretion can be banked for ongoing shareholders.
UKW has maintained an RPI linked dividend since launch and the current dividend of 10.0p/share equates to a yield of 7.4% at the share price. The levered portfolio discount rate is 11% and we estimate that, at the current share price, this implies a steady state return of c.12%. Whilst forward power prices have reduced materially over recent months, forecast cash generation and dividend cover remains strong. UKW expects to generate surplus cashflow in excess of £1bn over the next five years, which provides the Board and Manager with flexibility and options in respect of capital allocation and the ability to reinvest into new assets, increase share buybacks and/or pay down debt. We reiterate our Buy recommendation.