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27 Feb 2025
Investment Companies Research - UKWG.L (Buy): Full year results to 31 December 2024
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Investment Companies Research - UKWG.L (Buy): Full year results to 31 December 2024
Greencoat UK Wind Plc (UKW:LON) | 101 0.5 0.5% | Mkt Cap: 2,185m
- Published:
27 Feb 2025 -
Author:
Alan Brierley | Ben Newell -
Pages:
7 -
Investec view: UKW had pre-released its year-end NAV of 151.2p/share, which was down 7.9% over the full-year (NAV total return of -1.3%), principally driven by reductions in power price forecasts (-5.2p/share) and adjustments to the portfolio’s energy yield estimates (P50s, see pages 3-4) which resulted in the portfolio generation forecast being reduced by c.2.4% (-6.5p). These impacts were somewhat offset by share buybacks (+0.6p) and the mark to market on interest rate swaps (+1.2p). Generation was 13% below the pre-P50 adjustment budget (11% below the updated budget) and this alongside significantly lower captured power prices (£64.64/MWh vs. £89.03/MWh in 2023) materially impacted dividend cover, which was just 1.3x, and much lower than its 1.8x average. The company has guided to dividend cover of 1.9x over the next five years, although this is 0.1x lower than at the half year due to the energy yield revisions. UKW also does not amortise its debt and therefore its reported dividend cover is typically much higher than peers.
The company has maintained a disciplined approach to capital allocation. During the period, the company made an accretive £14.25m investment in Kype Muir Extension, which management said offered shareholders better value than an additional share buyback. It continued its initial £100m share buyback, announced in October 2023 and completed in January 2025, and has today announced a further £100m for share buybacks. UKW made its first disposals in December, generating £41m from the sale of 40% interests in two wind farms, at their prevailing NAVs. UKW expects to generate £1bn of excess cashflow over the next five years, which will be supplemented through cash raised from further disposals. Management commented that any remaining excess capital will be applied dynamically, and allocated between further, or accelerated, share buy backs and repaying debt to reduce the company’s gearing level (39.7% of GAV).
UKW’s aggregate debt is capped at 40% of GAV and therefore its level of buybacks will have to be balanced against its gearing limit. We understand this 40% is calculated at the time of drawdown and, therefore, it would not be triggered if a further fall in NAV resulted in a breach of this limit. If the company was to draw debt for buybacks (which it is allowed to do, but perhaps wouldn’t make sense), and this took the company over its 40% limit, the company would be in breach. It is therefore likely that the company will use excess cashflow to fund share buybacks, and it has outlined that additional capital will be available through further disposals. UKW continues to trade on a material discount to NAV (-26.5%), is offering a dividend yield of 9.3% and a prospective steady state return of c.13%. We retain our Buy recommendation.