Hardide (HDD): Corp | Ideagen (IDEA): Corp | Quixant (QXT): Corp
Companies: HDD IDEA QXT
Access Intelligence (ACC): Corp | Avacta (AVCT): Corp | City of London Group (CIN): Corp | InnovaDerma (IDP): Corp | Quixant (QXT): Corp
Companies: AVCT IDP QXT ACC CIN
The FY 2019 results were released in a detailed trading update last week so there are no surprises today. As previously stated, the global shutdown for an indefinite period brings material uncertainty to demand across all divisions and QXT has withdrawn guidance and the dividend is paused this year. Nevertheless, we are confident that QXT remains well managed, with a strong business model and a healthy pipeline of prospects. Underpinned by a current $17.7m net cash and a property-rich balance sheet, the long-term opportunity for QXT remains robust. In fact, COVID-19 pressure may be a catalyst for increased outsourcing across the Electronic Gaming Machine (EGM) industry.
ANGLE (AGL): Corp | Europa Oil & Gas (EOG): Corp | Hardide (HDD): Corp | Intercede (IGP): Corp | M.P. Evans (MPE): Corp | Quixant (QXT): Corp | Synairgen (SNG): Corp | Tremor (TRMR): Corp | Trifast (TRI): Corp
Companies: EOG HDD IGP MPE QXT SNG TRMR TRI AGL
FY 2019 results will be released next week but this update reveals they are in line with forecasts. The supply-side issues of COVID-19 are easing and have been well managed with minimal disruption; however, the global shutdown for an indefinite period brings material uncertainty to FY 2020 demand across all divisions and QXT has withdrawn guidance pending greater visibility. Prudently, the dividend will also be paused this year. Nevertheless, we are confident that QXT remains well managed, with a strong business model and a healthy pipeline of prospects. Underpinned by $17.7m net cash and a property-rich balance sheet, the long-term opportunity for QXT remains robust. In fact, COVID-19 pressure may be a catalyst for increased outsourcing across the Electronic Gaming Machine (EGM) industry.
Altitude Group (ALT): Corp Proposed disposal of ADP | Europa Oil & Gas (EOG): Corp Wressle economics highly robust | LPA Group (LPA): Corp COVID-19 update and Board appointments | Morses Club (MCL): Corp Substantial immediate upside opportunity in share price | Quixant (QXT): Corp Coronavirus delays audit sign-off for a week | Revolution Bars Group (RBG): Corp COVID-19 trading update | Synairgen (SNG): Corp COVID-19 Phase II trial to start imminently
Companies: ALT EOG QXT RBG SNG MCL LPA
Minds + Machines (MMX): Corp Strong H2 underpins forecasts and maiden dividend | Quixant (QXT): Corp Market weakness impacts H2 and cautions on FY 2020 | Tremor (TRMR): Corp Reassuring trading update after a transformational year
Companies: MMX QXT TRMR
Today’s trading update notes further softness in the gaming market last year. Guidance was cut in September on reduced demand from two large customers (notably Ainsworth) losing market share/floor space in the casinos. In the following months to the YE, Quixant experienced weaker demand for core gaming platform units across the wider client base, indicating general uncertainty amongst global machine manufacturers. FY 2019 revenues and adj. PBT will thus be below forecasts at $92.3m and $10.7m (down 20% and 40% YoY respectively) although H2 cash generation appears to have been strong, leaving $16.2m net cash at YE ($15.2m expected). Given this uncertainty we have cut our growth expectations for the year ahead to the very minimum likely case to rebuild confidence. The operational gearing increases the earnings impact. In light of the strong cash position, our dividend forecasts are unchanged. The issue of visibility has been addressed with the appointment of a new Sales Director this month and the introduction of improved systems during Q4 2019. The new sports-betting terminals should start to boost sales in 2020 and in 2021 we should see growth from a sizeable new customer in Japan. QXT remains well- funded, profitable and cash generative. Although facing short-term headwinds, it retains an excellent position to benefit from the underlying outsourcing trend in the global gaming machine industry. We ease our TP to 250p on this update.
The Interims have been brought forward in light of a warning on H2. Quixant had previously flagged that 2019 would be heavily H2-weighted and H1 is weak but in line with expectations. However, a recent review of customer intentions reveals that H2 orders will not meet expected volumes. The global gaming machine market is still healthy but key customers (notably Ainsworth) have lost significant market share to Aristocrat in Australia and N. America. We cut our FY 2019 and FY 2020 forecasts; however, no customers have been lost and the concentration is much reduced while the long-term growth potential and cash generation remains strong.
Avingtrans (AVG): Corp FY results slightly ahead, good margin gains achieved | Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR): Corp Lixus licence additional prospects | ClearStar (CLSU): Corp Medical and direct sales continue to drive strong growth | Europa Oil & Gas (EOG): Corp Moroccan acreage award | Iofina (IOF): Corp IO#8 iodine plant launched | Quixant (QXT): Corp Market share loss at key customers will leave H2 short | Zambeef (ZAM): Corp Disposal of a farm yields US$9.25m cash | ZOO Digital (ZOO): Corp AGM statement
Companies: AVG CHAR 9537 EOG IOF QXT ZAM ZOO
Bango (BGO): Corp A wheel of fortune | K3 Capital (K3C): Corp Continuing to build a unique business model | KRM22 (KRM): Corp Interims | NAHL (NAH): Corp Transformation on track | Quixant (QXT): Corp Market share loss at key customers will leave H2 short
Companies: K3C QXT NAH KRM BGO
dotDigital (DOTD): Corp FY trading update | DX (DX): Corp Major milestone reached and cleared | PCI Pal (PCIP): Corp Trading update highlights exceptional growth in FY 2019 | Quixant (QXT): Corp H1 in line with expectations and on track for FY
Companies: DOTD QXT PCIP DX/
A well attended and well received briefing saw the company introduce investors to its vision for Densitron’s future growth and the new management team brought in to deliver it. After several years of steady performance, Densitron is looking to drive growth with a switch in strategy from its traditional one-to-one projects over a range of end markets, towards a modular, one-to-many approach targeted at leading OEMs in much more focused global markets; the first being Broadcast (with others ahead) and its Human Machine Interface (HMI) becoming a key USP.
Kazera Global (KZG): Corp New resource estimate for NTI tantalite mine | Quixant (QXT): Corp Densitron in the spotlight
Companies: Quixant Kazera Global
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The FY 2020 results are in line with our expectations and reflect the impact of the previously announced switch from large perpetual licences to recurring annual term licences during the year. Despite the COVID strictures, with its large global partnerships, D4t4 continues to close numerous lucrative data gathering and data management contracts with major blue-chips around the world. It is successfully converting a high proportion of its new sales to recurring revenue contracts, but this will sacrifice growth and earnings in FY 2020 and FY 2021. Nevertheless, with growing recurring revenue base, an exciting pipeline and a very strong balance sheet, D4t4 is very well positioned for continued long-term growth and security.
Companies: D4T4 Solutions
CentralNic's CMD gave us new positive insights into the company's investment case. CentralNic's organic growth is stronger than we thought, the Direct division generates high ROI, the monetisation market was shown to be critical to the domain name market, Team Internet's market leadership was further reinforced and acquisition opportunities were shown to be larger than anticipated. These investment views are not reflected in CentralNic's low valuation multiples, in our view.
Companies: Centralnic Group
GB Group reported strong performance in FY20 and started taking measures to preserve cash in Q420. Trading in Q121 has been mixed and while management is unwilling to provide guidance for FY21, it has confidence that in the longer term it is well positioned to benefit from the acceleration in digital transformation that should drive demand for its identity data intelligence services. We have upgraded our EPS forecasts by 5% in FY21 and 3% in FY22.
Companies: GB Group
CentralNic’s capital markets day (CMD) on 24 June 2020 introduced the divisional management team and provided insight on each of the three key segments as they will report in FY20: Indirect (Wholesale, Registry); Monetisation (Team Internet); and Direct (Retail, Corporate). We have picked out what we believe are the four key themes from the CMD: FY20 performance, COVID-19 and seasonality; organic growth; M&A; and, pulling it all together, the benefit of scale. CentralNic continues to trade on an FY20 EV/EBITDA of 9.1x and a P/E of 15.8x, a material discount to its peer group, with our DCF indicating further share price upside. M&A could bring CentralNic’s multiples down further.
Blackbird plc* (BIRD.L, 19.25p/£64.7m) | Mirada plc* (MIRA.L, 92.5p/£8.2m) | Tern plc* (TERN.L, 10.75p/£29.0m) | Checkit plc (CKT.L, 39.5p/£24.5m)
Companies: BIRD MIRA MIRA TERN CKT
LoopUp has provided an update on trading to coincide with today’s AGM…in essence, the group continues to see activity “materially” above pre-COVID levels, and is confident of exceeding expectations for 2020. We choose to leave our forecasts (that we believe to be roughly in line with consensus estimates) unchanged for now, in advance of further detail likely with a fuller H1 update in early July.
Companies: Loopup Group
Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. This morning, the group has provided a trading update to coincide with its AGM.
Encouragingly, the business continues to perform in line with the trends seen at the time of the full year results in May and the Board anticipates Touchstar will be profitable in the six months to 30 June. Cash generation is again reported to have been good, with ‘significantly higher cash balances' expected to be reported than at the beginning of the year (FY 2019A £850k). The group has drawdown a CBIL of £150,000, which provides additional liquidity alongside its undrawn banking facilities of £300,000. Looking ahead, the order book is a more normal level than last reported at over £500,000 at the end of June, which compares to an exceptionally strong £1.2m at the beginning of the year.
FY20 results: inline with guidance
Today’s update is a positive one and acts as a reminder of DOTD’s solid and recurring business model. Such visibility, combined with excellent profitability (30% AOP margin) and strong cash resources (£22.6m net) means the company is strongly placed for a challenging macro environment, and worthy of attention in view of indiscriminate SP weakness. At a time, when many companies are seeing sales fall, DOTD has today revealed that demand continues to grow – evidencing DOTD’s secular growth drivers and omnichannel opportunity. New business is however taking longer to convert, as events and businesses have seen disruption. Offset against this, retention has improved, as customers’ digital transformation plans have slowed. Related to this, we also highlight that key customer risk is very low, as no customer represents >1.5%/sales, furthermore sector exposure is diversified. In view of today’s update, we therefore reduce FY20E sales by £2m to £46.8m, but flag that this still implies 6% growth in H2. DOTD has meanwhile identified savings (by reallocating its marketing budget) such that FY20E profit remains unchanged. Notwithstanding the company’s solid (90% recurring) business model, we view it conservative to withdraw FY21&22 estimates, given the potential for prolonged disruption. Despite this, much confidence can be taken from the company’s strong financial profile and growth opportunities, which (we view) will be unaffected longer term.
Companies: Dotdigital Group
Oxford Metrics has delivered solid 1HMar20 results, with sales of £15.0m (PY: £16.1m) and adj. PBT £0.3m (PY: £1.7). Within this, Yotta demonstrated continued ARR progression (up +15% to £6.8m) while at Vicon, the division added additional bluechip customers, further validating its industry leading position. Progress was, however, held back by lockdown restrictions. £1.1m of expected orders slipped to post period, but have now largely been fulfilled. Had they occurred as expected group sales would have been flat y/y. Looking ahead, CV19 related uncertainty leads us to withdraw forecasts. At this stage we expect disruption to be short-lived. As such – and considering OMG’s persuasive track record - we continue to view the company as a long-term winner in this growth industry.
Companies: Oxford Metrics
The Coronavirus pandemic is a human tragedy of vast proportions – as well as the terrible human toll, COVID-19 has led to economies across the globe going into physical lockdown and financial freefall. Entire populations are adapting to the “stay at home” edict, to safeguard the vulnerable – and some of these changes will lead to long-lasting or perhaps permanent changes in the way we live or work. This note describes some of our client companies whose business models are well adapted to these changes, or who might see a change in long-term structural demand.
Companies: AMO BGO FDM GAMA KAPE LOOP TERN ZOO
Solid State is a manufacturer of computing, power and communications products, and value added distributor of electronic components. This morning, the group has provided a further update on trading in light of the present COVID-19 backdrop, ahead of full year results to 31 March 2020 due to be released on 30 June.
Cadence today provides and update on the Amapá iron ore project in Brazil. The Amapá JV (EV Mineração S.A.), in which Cadence can earn an initial 20% of the project, is understood to be on track to begin shipping stockpiled iron ore from late Q2 / early Q3 2020. Finalisation of the negotiation with the secured creditors still needs to be reached, but the Amapá JV partners are engaging constructively. In preparation for shipping, a trucking contractor has been hired to move key equipment to site and a shipping manager and shipping broker have been engaged.
This morning's update from CSSG confirms the positive direction of travel highlighted when the company published H1 results in March. With comparators still challenging (because of one-off work in the prior year), and “light” Covid-19 impacts in recent months, the expected £1.6m EBITDA flagged by the company seems a creditable number, still within touching distance of historical performance in both EBITDA and PBTA terms. Net cash, moreover, even after three months of the Covid-19 crisis, is reported to still be higher than the £2.4m which the company reports it had at the start (which in turn represents an increase on the £2.3m as at 31 December 2019). Not surprisingly, having suspended payment of the dividend a couple of months ago, the Board is now proposing to have another look at this question, at least in relation to the half year dividend.
PTY's announcement this morning flags a change in the CFO role with the new appointee benefiting from extensive experience in developing digital businesses to their full potential, both in overall and in financial leadership positions. His arrival follows on from highly proactive action led by the previous finance director, delivering a platform for growth once the current uncertain circumstances have abated.
Companies: KDNC CSSG PTY SOLI
Idox has reported strong financial and operational progress in its H1 FY20 (the six months to April, only latterly affected by COVID-19) with headline numbers in line with its recent trading update and notable cost control and margin improvement. H1 20 reflects a good performance by a business that has been revitalised, with a ‘cloud-first’ approach, by the current management team. The Group also introduced new marketing strategies which are more closely aligned with product management. Idox continues to trade in line with market expectations and cash collection has been better than expected while the Group continues to win new business and deliver services. Management states that Idox remains in line with its existing forecasts and we note the resilience shown by the business in the current environment. We leave estimates unchanged.
We are introducing our Best Ideas for 2019 and also review the performance of last year’s picks. We suggest ten solidly financed stocks with good business dynamics that ought to be considered for core portfolio holdings and six UK domestically focused stocks that our analysts believe should perform strongly in the event that uncertainties unwind. We also introduce a new style of research from N+1 Singer which presents a Company’s dynamics and metrics in a clear and concise manner and concentrates on the pivotal issues affecting that Company and an investment decision.
Companies: BCA CLIN CLG CBP DNLM EAH STU FCRM FUTR GTLY INS GLE NICL SDL SPR TRI