Cerillion has reported H1’FY20 results in-line with its trading update on the 20th of April, with sales up 46% YoY and a sharp improvement in profitability. The order backlog of £24.2m was up 57% YoY, providing good H2 visibility. Net cash rose 86% to £4.8m, and the interim dividend is raised 9% to 1.75p. The new business pipeline is up 19% YoY with no significant Covid-19 impact. We expect Cerillion to comfortably meet our forecasts for FY20, with the year-end backlog also likely to support a healthy outlook into FY21. Despite recent re-rating, the stock remains at a discount to the peer group. We raise our target price to 295p from 225p, reiterating our Buy recommendation
Cerillion’s half year trading update highlights an expected 46% YoY jump in H1’FY20 revenues to £10.2m. The adjusted EBITDA of £2.7m is also up sharply, from £0.4m in H1’FY19. Net cash remains healthy at £4.8m. The sales pipeline is encouraging and the business is showing strong momentum going into H2. With service providers seeing rising data and voice traffic on the back of Covid-19, Cerillion has not seen any pandemic-related slowdown in trading activity. We leave our full year forecasts unchanged which, even with more muted H2 seasonality, should be comfortably achievable.
Cerillion Initiation, Civitas Social Housing, U&I, Strategy Flash, COVID-19 Updates: Leisure, PayPoint, Joules, Mining Upgrades, SMID Market Highlights
Companies: CER CSH UAI PAY JOUL
Cerillion is a fast-growing supplier of software solutions (OSS/BSS) to the telecoms industry. Over the past two years it has outgrown the sector, whilst increasing EBITDA margins and cash flow. The company is now at an inflection point where it is signing more high value contracts due to its growing reputation, product suite and support capabilities. In the short-to-medium term we view coronavirus-related spikes in data traffic as a positive driver, as network operators are forced to maintain or expand investment plans. Longer term, we see the business as an attractive M&A target while also benefiting from structural changes in the telecoms industry that increasingly favour smaller and more flexible suppliers. We initiate with a Buy recommendation and 225p target price.
African Export-Import Bank a supranational financial institution whose purpose is to facilitate, promote and expand intra- and extra- African trade, of its potential intention to publish a registration document, the Bank hereby confirms its intention to proceed with an Initial Public Offering. The GDRs are expected to be admitted to the standard listing segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the Main Market of the LSE.
DNEG Limited intends to apply for admission of its Shares to the premium listing segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the London Stock Exchange's main market for listed securities. The Offer will be comprised of new Shares to be issued by the Company (to raise expected gross proceeds of £150m). Admission is expected to take place in November 2019.
Companies: BMK IXI CER AUTG SCHO BRD ING SOS SSTY SUH
Registration document approved for Helios Towers. The Group provides essential network services, flexible infrastructure solutions and reliable power supply to mobile network operators in five African growth economies. Revenue increased 7 per cent. year-on-year to US$191m (H1 2018: US$178m), with Adjusted EBITDA up 15 per cent. year-on-year at US$99m (H1 2018: US$86m) for the six months ended 30 June 2019. Pricing rumoured at 115p to 145p implying valuation of up to $1.8bn. Expected Oct 2019.
Companies: SHED SSY SYS1 CBOX OMG OMG PPS RMS RNO CER RENX
AMRYT PHARMA PLC— a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and delivering innovative new treatments to help improve the lives of patients with rare or orphan diseases have raised $60m before expenses and will relist on the AIM Market on the 25/09/2019
Companies: ONC PEN RBD UOG SAE SIM MATD CER MSMN MPL
IMC Exploration Group (NEX: IMCP), focused on acquiring and exploring prospecting licence areas w hich have high potential for natural resource, is looking to admit its shares to the standard list and will withdraw for the NEX Exchange. TBC
Companies: CER PRES THR TEK KWG BBB RCN IRR ACP IBPO
Alumasc Group plc, the prem ium building products, system s and solutions group, has announced its intention to m ove from the Premium Segment of the main market to AIM. Expected market cap of £33.4m. Expected 25 June 2019
Argentex a UK-based forex service provider founded in 2011 by its current management team which operates as a Riskless Principal for nonspeculative and forward foreign exchange as structured financial derivatives is looking to join AIM. Offer TBC, expected 25 June
Companies: GAN BIOM PEN ARS CER FIPP MPM SPPC ARO HCM
SDX Energy plc—a North Africa focused oil and gas company, announces its intention to complete a Canadian plan of arrangement under section 192 of the Canada Business Corporations Act and will have shares de-listed from the TSX-V and admitted to trading on AIM. Expected 28 May 2019, anticipated market cap of £76m Renold plc—a leading international supplier of industrial chains and related power transmission products, announced that it will cancel the listing of the Company from the premium segment and apply for admission on AIM. Expected 06 June 2019. Distribution Finance Capital Holdings plc — specialist lender which builds relationships with manufacturers and then provides working capital solutions up and down their supply chains to drive their growth is looking to join AIM. No raise, secondary offering of £19.8m at 90p, expected market cap of £95.98m. Expected 09 May 2019. Alumasc Group plc, the premium building products, systems and solutions group, has announced its intention to move from the Premium Segment of the main market to AIM. Expected market cap of £33.4m. Expected 25 June 2019
Companies: MCL IQE CER HAYD DAL SIS PGH ZYT CHRT JWNG
United Oil & Gas (UOG.L) an oil and gas exploration and development company brought to the Official List (Standard Segment) in July 2017 by way of a reverse takeover of Senterra Energy plc. No capital to be raised, expected market cap of £17m and expected 28 Feb Techniplas –global producer and support services company providing highly engineered and technically complex components, making the supply chain to original equipment manufacturers more efficient. FYDec17 rev $515m.
Companies: NMRP PGD KDR CER CLIN NBB MLVN RENX BAGR D4T4
Stratmin Global Resources RTO of Signature Gold a specialist Australian gold exploration company focused on the exploration and development of large-scale Intrusion Related Gold System. Offer TBA. Due 4 June. Will leave AIM under rule 41.
Companies: DERR FISH TMT LND EUSP TMO KWS HNG CER KRS
Gfinity plc* (GFIN.L, 15.7p/£45.1m) Board changes: Garry Cook appointed Executive Chairman | Tekcapital plc* (TEK.L, 17.0p/£7.2m) Belluscura private placement | Cerillion plc (CER.L, 145p/£42.8m) Interims: Solid H1, Skyline gaining some traction | TP Group plc (TPG.L, 7.25p/£55m) Meeting with management: Expanding the service offering
Companies: GFIN TEK CER TPG
Pelatro—provider of proprietary software solutions to enterprise-level customers for various aspects of precision marketing for use in B2C applications. Offer TBC, expected 19 December 2017
Fusion Antibodies—Belfast based contract research organisation providing services to biopharmaceutical and diagnostics companies that are involved in the development of antibodies for both therapeutic drug and diagnostic applications. Offer TBA. Due Mid Dec.
Sirius Petroleum—RTO. Becoming an operating company in the Ororo Field in Nigeria. Raising £7.2m/ Mkt Cap £35.6m. Due 19 Dec.
Bushveld Minerals—RTO of Bushveld Vametco and therefore 78.8% of Strategic Minerals Corporation, the intermediate holding company that owns a 75 per cent. interest in the Vametco Vanadium Mine.
Range Resources— oil and gas company listed on the ASX plans to admit to AIM on 13 Dec with market cap of £17.4m. Also acquiring Range Resources Drilling Services Limited, an oil services business based in Trinidad & Tobago with extensive drilling capabilities.
Eqtec—Company with access to a proprietary advanced gasification technology used in industrial size power plants to convert waste into synthetic gas to generate electricity. Raising £1.6m. Mkt Cap £8.7m. Due 21 Dec.
Volex VLX.L—The global provider of cable assemblies is proposing to move from the main market to AIM on 19 January. £71m market cap. FYMar18E rev £241.5m and £7.19m PBT
Belluscura— Provider of premium medical devices at value prices to address part of the global unmet need for affordable, premium quality medical devices. Raising £7.5m to £10m. Offer TBA. Due early Dec
Miriad Advertising—Global video advertising company incorporated in 2015 and is engaged in the development of native invideo advertising . 2016 rev £0.7m and £7.3m operating loss. Offer TBA. Expected 6 Dec.
OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m.
Companies: DWHT PGR PCIP AMO MPM SAT CER ALSP HZD
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Oxford Metrics has delivered solid 1HMar20 results, with sales of £15.0m (PY: £16.1m) and adj. PBT £0.3m (PY: £1.7). Within this, Yotta demonstrated continued ARR progression (up +15% to £6.8m) while at Vicon, the division added additional bluechip customers, further validating its industry leading position. Progress was, however, held back by lockdown restrictions. £1.1m of expected orders slipped to post period, but have now largely been fulfilled. Had they occurred as expected group sales would have been flat y/y. Looking ahead, CV19 related uncertainty leads us to withdraw forecasts. At this stage we expect disruption to be short-lived. As such – and considering OMG’s persuasive track record - we continue to view the company as a long-term winner in this growth industry.
Companies: Oxford Metrics
COVID-19 continues to have a profound impact on virtually every industry, on a global basis. Enterprises of all types and sizes are racing to adapt their models to the “new normal”. The more thoughtful are looking not just to effect change, but to improve how change happens, to become more flexible and more nimble as organisations. Sopheon has today announced some major developments to its Accolade platform which look to assist the group’s customers in this endeavour. This note describes the changes to the product range, and draws on a recent customer webinar used by Sopheon to highlight the evolving challenges to enterprise innovation management.
AGM statement as expected; Resume with a Buy
Companies: Cloudcall Group
Nanoco has signed a framework agreement with STMicroelectronics (ST). This covers both development work and commercial supply of nano-materials for use in multiple infra-red sensing applications over a five-year period. While the agreement underpins the operational cash runway, which was recently extended to Q221, there is still significant uncertainty regarding future revenues, so our estimates remain under review.
Companies: Nanoco Group
The Panoply’s trading update reveals the business entered FY 21E with a £15m order backlog and that the group expects to report a strong trading performance for Q1 21E, having recorded £9.5m of new contract wins since the start of the year. A further positive is confirmation of a $5.2m contract win with a global philanthropic organisation by the group’s FutureGov unit (included within the £9.5m total). Against an ongoing backdrop of COVID19 driven uncertainty, this is a very positive announcement in our view. Noting that c70% of group turnover is now generated by public sector clients, we continue to believe The Panoply is well-placed to weather the COVID-19 pandemic and we maintain estimates following the release.
Companies: The Panoply Holdings
Avation is a lessor of 48 commercial aircraft to a diversified airline client base. Intra-day yesterday, the group announced that, as a result of the present uncertain backdrop caused by COVID-19, the Board had withdrawn from the previously announced strategic review and formal sale process, and that it was no longer in active discussions with any interested parties. The key reasons behind this were 1) the present uncertainty meaning that an attractive valuation was seen as unlikely to be achieved at this present moment in time and 2) the distraction of the process in the day to day operational activities of the business.
Petards supplies advanced security and surveillance systems to the Rail, Defence and Traffic Technology markets. Intra-day yesterday, the group confirmed that its RTS Solutions subsidiary had secured a multi-year renewal agreement for the provision of software support services to one of its major rail customers.
Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. This morning, the group has released full year results to 31 December 2019, alongside providing an update on progress against the present COVID-19 backdrop. In line with the market updates provided in February and April, group revenue in the year increased by 3.2% to £7.1m, whilst revenue from continuing operations, excluding the Onboard business that was disposed of in the year, increased by 7.2% to £6.7m, driven by traction being gained with new products and services. The gross margin in the year increased by 280bps to 53.9% reflecting the greater proportion of software and service income. This resulted in a trading loss after tax before exceptionals of £89k, which post exceptionals of £412k that predominantly related to the disposal of OnBoard, resulted in a loss after tax of £501k. As previously reported, the year-end net cash position stood at £850k, which reflected an increase of £554k in the year; this post £1.1m of new product development expenditure and cash costs associated with the disposal.
Companies: AVAP TST PEG
Watchstone has this morning announced a proposed second return of cash to shareholders, totalling a further £18.4m/40p per share. The rationale for this second tranche relates to the Board having previously allocated a cash buffer of £20m for any possible fines or penalties arising from the now lapsed SFO investigation. Subject to shareholder and court approval, this further return is anticipated to be made on or around 31 July 2020. Shareholders approved the first £50.5m/110p per share return of cash on 27 April 2020, which remains subject to court approval on 11 June 2020 and is scheduled to be paid on or around 30 June 2020.
Companies: Watchstone Group
Following the announcement of a business restructure and temporary cost reduction measures to reduce costs by A$12m, we have updated our forecasts for Seeing Machines. We believe that the significant measures taken by the management offset a weaker revenue outlook, as the impact of COVID-19 looks likely to continue for longer than anticipated. The net result is a similar to previous expectations in terms of cash, which we believe remains sufficient to see the company through FY22 ahead of profitability in FY23. The long-term effects of the business restructure is expected to be positive for shareholder value as demonstrated by our DCF based valuation which increases to 7.2p (from 7.0p).
Companies: Seeing Machines
Synairgen (SNG.L): Preliminary 2019 results | Yourgene Health (YGEN.L): COVID-19 testing service launch and business update
Companies: Synairgen Yourgene Health
Success breeds success. Take B2B software developer Rosslyn, who over the past few years has meticulously built a leading Big Data & spend analytics SaaS platform (RAPid), supporting an illustrious roster of 100+ clients (many global multi-nationals). Topped off with the synergistic acquisition of Langdon in Sept’19, & becoming EBITDA positive in FY’20 for the 1st time ever - thanks to increasing ARR (+12% to >£6m vs £5.4m LY) & favourable operational leverage (81% gross margins).
Companies: Rosslyn Data Technologies
This morning's announcement from PEN highlights significant mitigations of some of the Covid-19 risks identified in its recent Report & Accounts, notably where cash and working capital are concerned. From this perspective it is highly reassuring that major invoices to the tune of £2m in relation to PEN's contract with General Dynamics (GD), delayed by the practical issues around milestone meetings during the pandemic crisis, have now been raised, with help from virtual technology, and that written confirmation has been received from the client that the equipment milestone has been met. Formal agreement by GD to the £1.5m pricing adjustments which PEN had applied for is also excellent news, and as a result a contract which initially was expected to be valued at £7.3m is now worth at least £13.5m, with more potentially to go for. Moreover, on the back of the re-scoping of last year's Middle East contract and the GD agreement combined, over £4m of positive working capital is expected to flow into the current year, resulting in a significantly improved cash situation.
Companies: Pennant International Group
1HMar20 sales flat at £2.3m, MRR also flat at £340k. Net loss £-2.0m (PY: £-1.9m), period-end net debt £0.14m. On MRR - a new customer win and also upsells were offset by customer churn. New sales generation has been slower than planned. In response, INX has reduced staff headcount by 20%, starting in January. Covid has negatively impacted business performance – meaning longer sales cycles and higher DSOs. Encouragingly therefore, cash collection improved post period-end (to £0.3m). Further, two upsells have been secured, meaning YTD upsell value is up +10% y/y. Despite this progress, prudently, INX has decided to further reduce costs, with the objective of obtaining a monthly breakeven performance. This, combined with the company’s renewal pipeline and cash position, is said to provide sufficient funding for the current year. The board is however mindful of the sustainability of the changes made and as such, is in the early stages of reviewing its longer-term strategic options to introduce fresh capital. Forecasts remain U/R.
Companies: I-Nexus Global
Walker Greenbank is a higher-end interior furnishings business with well-established global brand names and manufacturing facilities in the UK. This morning, the group has provided a further update on the business in relation to COVID-19 following its previous announcement on 25 March. In addition, and in line with recent FCA/FRC guidance, full year results to 31 January 2020 have been rescheduled to 30 June (previously expected 23 April).
With cash ahead of expectation in a year of transformation, PTY has reported inline results for the year to December 2019, with revenues standing at £80.4m and £0.1m adj. PBT. Net cash at £0.9m is ahead of our expectation prior to the company's pre-close update by some £1.9m, a significant beat.
Dillistone's update this morning is, on the whole, reassuring. Although the economic implications of COVID-19 will likely materially affect FY2020E results, as with many businesses seeing a significant reduction in demand for products and services, it is too early to determine the quantum. As such, we remove our FY2020 estimates that previously looked for an EBITDA contribution of £1.6m and adjusted PBT to £0.1m.
Companies: WGB DSG PTY
The Panoply’s trading update for the year to March 2020 confirms that H2 trading was solid, and that the Board expects to report revenue and EBITDA in line with market expectations. The group’s financial position remains robust and will be enhanced by cash collections from the solid 20E trading performance. The Panoply is actively involved in the response to the COVID19 pandemic, with the business being only minimally impacted so far. Overall, we believe the announcement contains a number of positive messages. However, with ongoing macro-driven uncertainty over the medium/ longer-term outlook, we revise forecasts. Our FY 21E and FY 22E EBITDA estimates are reduced by 37% and 21% respectively.
The Coronavirus pandemic is a human tragedy of vast proportions – as well as the terrible human toll, COVID-19 has led to economies across the globe going into physical lockdown and financial freefall. Entire populations are adapting to the “stay at home” edict, to safeguard the vulnerable – and some of these changes will lead to long-lasting or perhaps permanent changes in the way we live or work. This note describes some of our client companies whose business models are well adapted to these changes, or who might see a change in long-term structural demand.
Companies: AMO BGO FDM GAMA KAPE LOOP TERN ZOO