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16 May 2023
FDM : Flexing the model - Buy
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FDM : Flexing the model - Buy
FDM Group (Holdings) plc (FDM:LON) | 146 -0.3 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 159.9m
- Published:
16 May 2023 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
Trading update. While client interest remains high, spend decisions are being delayed or reduced due to the general uncertainty in the macro backdrop. This is happening across all geographies with April headcount softer than expected in all regions. Group billable headcount end April was 4,774 vs 4,905 at FY22 year end. We expect a modest decline over the next couple of months and then would hope for improvement into H223 as the macro stabilises, which could have a prompt positive impact on billing, considering client engagement is high. Net cash was £47.5m at end 30th April (£45.5m FY22) with the group in a strong financial position.
Forecast resilience. An attraction of FDM is its flexible operating model, with recruitment / training being slowed and costs tightly controlled. It is supporting the bench through this cycle at present that will be impacting the P&L, with FDM expecting more stable conditions in H2 to exploit. We had already built in forecast cushion, using prudent sell rates and upfront cost loading. As such our headcount adjustment has a less proportionate impact on revenue and we tweak cost assumptions with profits unchanged. If conditions deteriorate materially in H223 then this could pose some forecast risk, but a more stable backdrop with headcount improving would support forecasts.
Forecast. We reduce FY23E headcount to 4,925 vs 5,498 with revenue of £350.7m vs £360.4m and EBITA unchanged. For FY24E we forecast 5,445 headcount vs 5,828 with revenue £373.3m vs £387.8m with no profit change.
View. The PE is at historic lows suggesting concerns around market forecasts; however, assuming a headcount improvement into H223 with the backdrop stabilising, this trough valuation, supported by a 6% dividend yield, is very appealing and we would expect a re-rating as forecast conviction improves. Our 1200p TP looks through to FY24E with a 26x cash adj PE rating vs our previous 6,000 headcount scenario based TP.