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20 May 2025
FDM : Tariff impact – recovery nipped in bud for now - Buy
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FDM : Tariff impact – recovery nipped in bud for now - Buy
FDM Group (Holdings) plc (FDM:LON) | 146 -0.3 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 159.9m
- Published:
20 May 2025 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
AGM update. At FY24 results in March, it was clear to us that FDM was seeing early signs of a sustained recovery and we reiterated our Buy, seeing this as directionally the bottom of the cycle. The statement confirms the positive Q1 trading pattern. However, since the tariff saga, this recovery has largely stalled, with macro uncertainty impacting customers’ deal timings and putting renewed hesitancy into client decision-making. This is evident from the implied soft April headcount month prompting us to reduce FY25E heads to 2,518 (2,848). Cash is strong at £42m (Apr FY24 £46m).
FDM outlook. The company is responding to this change of backdrop with further focus on cost management, slowing recruitment and reducing discretionary expenditure, while still maintaining the capability to serve clients and new orders. There are positive areas, such as UK Government (recent increase in activity) and Australia (strong trading performance), but overall headwinds from consultants returning to the bench and fewer new orders than expected are putting pressure on net billable headcount. FDM expects close management of costs, which we outlined, to offset the revenue impact.
Forecasts. We opt to build in some caution. If the tariff impact on the macro backdrop lifts soon, we will likely have to move our forecasts back up, but at this stage we believe it prudent to be pre-emptively cautious. FY25E revenue £199.6m (£214.6m) -7%, PBT £23m (£25.5m) -10%, EPS 15.3p (17p) -10%, and DPS 15p (16p) -6%. FY26E revenue £208.9m (£230.8m) -9%, PBT £26m (£29.2m) -11%, EPS 17.3p (19.5p) -11%, and DPS 17p (18p) -6%.
View. The tariffs cut short early signs of recovery, but when sentiment improves demand could come quickly and FDM is well placed. The paltry valuation offers material upside when it does, although timing is difficult to call.