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30 Jul 2025
FDM : Toughing it out - Buy
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FDM : Toughing it out - Buy
FDM Group (Holdings) plc (FDM:LON) | 138 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 150.9m
- Published:
30 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
9 -
Headlines. H125 revenue -31% to £97.3m, EBITA -48% to £9.1m and EPS 6.3p, down 46%. Cash conversion was strong at 155% with net cash £34.6m (H124 £36.9m). H125 billable headcount fell 37% yoy to 2,173, compared to 2,578 FY24 and 2,366 end April. Utilisation was steady at 91.6% with the bench tightly managed. An interim 6.0p dividend (H124 10p) was declared.
Tough backdrop continues. Clients continue to delay and defer spending with FDM having little visibility on when orders may fall. There are high levels of client discussions, but orders are protracted. FDM has also been impacted by high levels of internalisations and returners from a large client undergoing a restructuring due to regulatory fines, not related to FDM. This backdrop makes forecasting challenging; we believe the best route is to effectively expect similar conditions in H2. We have reduced our year end consultant heads to 2,033 from 2,518 as discussed overleaf.
Cost alignment. Costs have been materially cut over the last couple of years and cutting a lot deeper from here would damage the fabric of the business, impact client service and leave FDM ill-prepared for when the market eventually recovers. We expect further opex realignment but not swathes of costs out, so our H225 headcount and revenue reduction will materially impact profit levels. We cut FY25E EBITA by 38% to £14.1m from £22.8m, with FY26E falling 46% to £13.9m from £25.8m, as discussed overleaf.
Low base. Headcount of c2,000, with no large client risk anymore suggests risks are to the upside considering the large deals in the pipeline, with any one deal making a material difference off this low base. However, it is unwise to factor this in for now, but highlights that growth should snap back in due course.
View. An early stage 25p EPS recovery scenario at 15x PE gives a 400p TP.