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31 Jan 2024
FDM : Trading through the cycle - Buy
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FDM : Trading through the cycle - Buy
FDM Group (Holdings) plc (FDM:LON) | 146 1.5 0.7% | Mkt Cap: 160.1m
- Published:
31 Jan 2024 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
Numbers. FY23 revenue is expected to be £334m, ahead of our £326.2m, up 2% cc. No profit number is given, but the group expects to report in-line and we make no changes to our profit forecasts. Cash conversion was strong at 112% with FY23 net cash of £47m (FY22: £46m) versus our £40.8m.
Consultants. FY23 consultants were 3,982 vs our 3,940, down 21% yoy. This implies a net 662 reduction in H223 vs -303 in H123. The UK closed at 1,411 (2022 1,958), implying a net 345 reduction in H223 vs -215 in H123. NA closed at 1,322 (FY22 1,618), implying a net 205 reduction in H223 vs 55 in H123. EMEA ended on 327 (FY23: 318), with APAC on 832 (FY22: 1,011).
Trading through the cycle. FDM has flexed its model to respond to the challenging backdrop. However, there is a balance between further cost and efficiency actions, which we expect some more of during FY24, and re-investment back into the resource pool to support delivery as and when demand improves. There are tentative signs of client confidence increasing and some areas of demand improvement. FY24 will be about balancing efficiency savings vs resource investment against the recovery timeline so as and when it arrives, FDM is ready to fully exploit the demand pick-up.
View. Our forecasts build in limited headcount growth, conscious of the high level of two-year contracts ending in FY24, albeit there could be a client shift to keeping consultants into their third year as seen in the pandemic. In the longer term, we expect the model to move back towards its 5,000 consultant target, which should move profitability materially higher from current trough levels. For those taking this long-term view, along with the healthy dividend yield, this is an attractive entry point. We retain our Buy with a 700p PE-based TP.