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13 Nov 2023
FDM : Trading through the uncertain backdrop - Buy
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FDM : Trading through the uncertain backdrop - Buy
FDM Group (Holdings) plc (FDM:LON) | 123 4.2 2.8% | Mkt Cap: 135.1m
- Published:
13 Nov 2023 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
8 -
FY23. October headcount is 4,136 (5,014 in H122) versus 4,602 in H123 and our previous FY23E assumption of 4,460. We had assumed a moderation in the decline of net billable consultants into H223, but the backdrop has remained challenging with slower project ramp-ups and client deferrals impacting headcount. Client conversations and engagement are still strong, with plans to move ahead when budgets free up and economic conditions become less tight around corporate spend. As outlined overleaf, good cost control means we modestly adjust FY23E profits despite reducing headcount to 3,940 from 4,460, a net 662 H223 reduction vs -303 in H123.
FY24E implications. The forecast read-through for FY24E is likely to be more material after building in the lower FY23 headcount exit rate. In addition, we expect investment to support the recruitment and training cycle starting up as the group replaces consultants finishing two-year placements (FY22 was a strong new placement year), preparing for future growth on the basis that demand improves as new budget cycles start. At this stage, it is difficult to gauge exact outcomes. We expect the group to be able to give its views at the year-end January trading update once it has sight of the year-end close and further visibility on client plans. We reduce FY24E EBITA by 26% as outlined overleaf and will refine when we get more data ahead.
Forecasts. FY23E revenue £326.2m (£341.7m) -5%, EBITA £50.3m (£53m) 5%, EPS 33.8p (35.6p) -5%. FY24E revenue £286m (£347.3m) 18%, EBITA £40.4m (£54.4m) -26%, EPS 27.1p (36.4p) -26%, DPS 26.5p (37p) -26%.
View. This period is laying the groundwork to drive the platform when conditions improve – we look through to FY25E with a 700p 22x PE-based TP.