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24 May 2022
First Take: FDM - Confident AGM trading update
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First Take: FDM - Confident AGM trading update
FDM Group (Holdings) plc (FDM:LON) | 147 2.4 1.1% | Mkt Cap: 161.5m
- Published:
24 May 2022 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
4 -
Strong headline metrics
The group has released a short, but upbeat, AGM trading update. Demand has been strong since the beginning of the year and the company is recruiting and training record numbers of new joiners. This has led to April closing with 4,429 Consultants, up 10% from 4,033 at the FY21 year end and 18% growth yoy. This is an impressive level of new placements in just four months, in our view, with current headcount now not far away from our FY22E year-end estimate of 4,623. April end net cash of £55m is also a good outcome.
Keeping numbers as is for now
We understand that demand is strong across the business, with all geographies now performing very well and seeing robust placement trends. While it appears that the group will effectively blast through our year end headcount estimate, assuming conditions remain the same in H222, we also expect cost increases to offset some of this headcount upside. The business is continuing to invest in its internal headcount (trainers, sales, recruiters) to support the expansion of the group and we would also allow for some general wage inflation trends, as we have seen across the sector, albeit offset by potential price rises feeding through, as the group started to allude to at the FY21 results. We see upside scope to our revenue forecasts, based on the current headcount trends, and we judge our profit estimates as underpinned, but look to the H122 results to fully understand the revenue / cost balance and to ascertain a more granular level of headcount trends.
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The business is clearly trading very strongly, testament to its distinctive market offering and position, as well as the healthy industry backdrop. We value FDM on our 5,000 Mountie scenario looking through to FY23 and placing the implied profits on 27x PE, which arrives at our 1400p target price.