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10 Dec 2024
Goodbody - NCC Group; Headwinds on outlook as sales cycle extends

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Goodbody - NCC Group; Headwinds on outlook as sales cycle extends
NCC Group plc (NCC:LON) | 142 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 448.9m
- Published:
10 Dec 2024 -
Author:
Patrick O'Donnell -
Pages:
3 -
Results broadly in line with expectations
NCC group updated the market on the 16-month period to end of September due to a change in accounting period-end to September 30th from May 30th. The results showed increasing momentum in terms of the cyber business with respect to gross margin and utilisation. It also shows increased momentum on the revenue side with cyber revenues growing at 7.6% in constant currency terms in the 4 months to the end of September. Group adjusted EBITDA margin is therefore stronger now at 9.0% having increased by 7.1% in the four months to September 2024. The Escode business continues to grow (+0.5%) in the 4 months, whilst gross margins in this business are c.3% lower due to investment in sales for future growth opportunities. This is in relation to targeting new enterprise opportunities particularly in the US and Australia.
Sales cycle is lengthening
Like other consulting-led business models, the outlook is more challenging than the near-term performance with the group highlighting a lengthening sales cycle. This implies revenue growth of low single digit and marginal adjusted EBITDA growth. We will reflect this in our forecasts and likely to tweak down our Adjusted EBITDA estimate.
NCC remains a HOLD
The group has shown strong improvement in fundamentals and delivery against its strategic plan. We value the group at the median of the IT Services peer mix. The latest update is more challenging in terms of outlook but symptomatic of the overall environment that professional services businesses, particularly on the consulting side, are finding. Therefore our recommendation remains on HOLD and our medium term forecasts remain a little more conservative than group expectations.