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27 Jan 2022
First Take: NCC Group - A lot to do in H2

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First Take: NCC Group - A lot to do in H2
NCC Group plc (NCC:LON) | 143 -0.6 (-0.3%) | Mkt Cap: 450.4m
- Published:
27 Jan 2022 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
4 -
Good Assurance revenue traction, softer on profits, Resilience looking to recover
Overall H1 revenue was up 14.2% cc to £150.1m including the IPM deal. In terms of divisions, Assurance revenue grew 8.8% to £123.2m and Escrow declined 3.3% ex the IPM acquisition, with reported revenue of £26.9m including IPM. Gross margins in Assurance overall increased c1% yoy to 36%, with UK and Europe up and US down 1% (investment in staff), and declined compared to H221 where gross margins were 37.3%. Gross margins in Escrow declined to c72% from c73.5% due to investment to address execution challenges. Group operating profit was £20.2m, up 10% yoy including £4m from the IPM acquisition. On a like for like basis in terms of accounting treatment, underlying operating profit increased 1% to £16.2m from £16m. Cash conversion was 75% compared to 89% in H121
All to do in H2
The H122 profit performance leaves a lot to do in H222, implying profits move from £20.2m to £29.7m on our numbers which are slightly below consensus. The statement alludes to a building pipeline and orderbooks and activity levels, with a decent start to H2. We await the results presentation to gauge more clarity on the trading momentum, but at this stage we would see modest risk to the profit outlook and also heading into FY23 where consensus assumes material yoy profit growth. Our FY23E profit forecasts are below the £58.5m consensus.
Our View
We had based our TP/Hold on concerns over forecast achievability (wage inflation, investment, pricing, utilisation, Escrow weakness). There appears to be mixed news on delivering on these elements, with some positive commentary, but we think underlying profits were slightly disappointing. We expect to retain our Hold but place our forecasts under review ahead of the results presentation.