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  • 09 May 2022

First Take: NCC Group - CEO change, trading update


NCC Group plc (NCC:LON) | 144 -3.5 (-1.6%) | Mkt Cap: 454.2m


  • Investec Bank
    • Julian Yates | Roger Phillips

    • 4 pages


 

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First Take: NCC Group - CEO change, trading update


NCC Group plc (NCC:LON) | 144 -3.5 (-1.6%) | Mkt Cap: 454.2m


  • Published: 09 May 2022
  • Author: Julian Yates | Roger Phillips
  • Pages: 4
  • Investec Bank


Trading update FY22 revenue and EBIT are expected to be in line with management expectations, which we understand is in line with consensus, pre (£50.9m) and post (£46.5m) the deferred revenue haircut. Our £45.8m in line with post deferred revenue haircut. Assurance is expected to grow c15% from increased volumes and day rates, which is ahead of our c13%, and would imply rising costs (wages) considering profits appear to be in-line. Software Resilience will post modest revenue growth in H2. The division has started an operational review which is expected to improve contribution by c£5m during FY24. We had been concerned around the profit delivery of the underlying (ex IPM) Escrow business in H1, so we assume this review will help strengthen the overall profit capability of the business. Net debt is expected to be in line with management expectations. FY22 results expected 6th September. CEO Change Adam Palser has decided to step down in mid-June with Mike Maddison taking over as CEO, who is currently EY’s cyber security head. In our view, Adam significantly improved the quality of the business during its turnaround and led it successfully through the pandemic period. The change of leadership appears to reflect the desire to drive further growth out of the business from the platform it has now built up. View When we struck our forecasts at H122, we sensed these were slightly below consensus, reflecting our concern around Assurance wage inflation and Escrow profit delivery. However, with the deferred revenue haircut treatment, it is difficult to see if consensus has nudged down during the period, with our forecasts now seeming in-line with consensus. Assurance revenue growth is strong, which is a key positive and has driven profits, despite the naturally rising costs, although the Escrow review, while ultimately positive, does reflect the need to improve the underling profitability. The new CEO is also likely to bring some changes, and we stay at Hold ahead of hearing any news on these.

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