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27 Sep 2023
First Take: NCC Group - FY23 results - no fireworks

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First Take: NCC Group - FY23 results - no fireworks
NCC Group plc (NCC:LON) | 145 -1.7 (-0.8%) | Mkt Cap: 455.5m
- Published:
27 Sep 2023 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
4 -
Headline numbers
Overall statement is in line, the first time in a while we have had an update without any negative surprises, which we read as signs the business is stabilising. It is still to be expected that there may be some modest risk around the numbers considering the change going through the business, with our flat profit forecasts below the modest profit growth targets, but we see this more than reflected in the valuation and read this as a largely positive update. Revenue and profit of £355.1m and £28.8m compares to our £332m and £28.5m, respectively. Assurance declined -10% in H2 with FY at £270m versus our £270m. Profits were £6.9m versus our £10m implying a loss making H2. In Software Resilience, growth was down -0.5% to £64.3m vs our £62m, but it saw H2 growth of 0.6% with profits of £30.6m versus our £28.5m. Cash flow conversion was strong at 101.9%.
Assurance commentary
They are seeing stabilisation in Assurance (Cyber) orders, which gives some confidence around holding current revenue run rates, with cost efficiencies and utilisation improvements. Clearly it will take time to claw back from the -£3.6m loss making position in H223 and we would expect a breakeven performance. However, efficiency improvements and improved utilisation are to help push the business back to improving margins in H2, with our current estimates assuming H224 5% margins, on the assumption revenues maintain steady.
Software Resilience commentary
Growth improved in H223 and we understand pricing and renewal trends were positive in H124, which should support gradual profit growth into FY24. There was no mention of an update on the thoughts behind a potential sale process for the business, but we would expect this to happen in due course.
View
We maintain our view, the market is implying the longer term Assurance division remains materially under pressure from a margin perspective, assuming a >£250m valuation can be achieved for Resilience, which we see as too bearish and see longer term value potential from these sold off levels.