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25 Jan 2024
First Take: NCC Group - Positive progress, allaying fears

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First Take: NCC Group - Positive progress, allaying fears
NCC Group plc (NCC:LON) | 145 -1.7 (-0.8%) | Mkt Cap: 455.5m
- Published:
25 Jan 2024 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
4 -
Key messages
NCC has been a key recovery pick for us. This statement gives confidence in the continued re-build of the group and the investment view. H124 results are in line with expectations and the full year outlook maintained. There have been some accounting changes, taking SBP and amortisation of acquired intangibles to the EBITA line, which is unusual in the sector, so this will create an optical downgrade at the EBITA and EPS line, but like-for-like we would expect no material change to consensus, with the company still expecting modest profit growth, versus our flat forecasts, as per previous guidance. The H124 performance supports this outlook in our view. Overall revenue was down 6.7% cc with EBITDA of £15.6m and operating profit of £4.8m, with the latter being £10.2m on the previous measure, in line with guidance. Escode grew 6.2%, ahead of guidance, partly aided by the comp, and driven by price rises and verification. Cost savings are on track, and the group has seen improvement in utilisation and gross margins. Technical Assurance remains lower visibility (shorter project life cycles) but Q2 exit run rates gives the group confidence in the outlook along with the growth in Managed Services. The company will be looking to change the year end to September.
Key focus areas
For us, key focus areas were utilisation improvements in Technical Assurance (we understand that Q224 utilisation in TAS moved up to 76% from 60% in Q1), overall costs savings on track, reasonable revenue visibility into H2, new senior hires bedding down well and prospects of a valuation catalyst in Escode while keeping its trading momentum. This statement gives ticks in all these boxes. Arguably, from a valuation catalyst perspective, it would have been even better to hear of a re-start of the ‘sale’ process of Escode, with the statement saying this is still on hold ‘at this juncture’, leaving room for this carrot still to dangle. However, the trading momentum in the division suggests a better price could be realised in due course. The accounting changes, some of which we struggle to understand, such as taking amortisation of intangibles to the adjusted profit line, make the numbers more complicated, but we believe underlying trends are heading in the right direction.
View
We retain our Buy and SoTP-based 175p TP; with the current price in our view assuming the Escode valuation is realised at some stage, the market is factoring in paltry margins on an on-going basis in Cyber which we see as unlikely.