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06 Sep 2022
First Take: NCC Group - Quietly confident

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First Take: NCC Group - Quietly confident
NCC Group plc (NCC:LON) | 147 3.8 1.8% | Mkt Cap: 462.4m
- Published:
06 Sep 2022 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
4 -
Numbers heading in the right direction
Headline FY22 revenues of £314.8m were up 10.3% organic (cc) vs our £312.6m, with EBITA of £48.1m vs our £45.8m. Within this, Assurance revenue was £258.5m (versus our £255.4m) with NA up 14.6%, UK +16% and Europe +8%. EBITA was £31.9m vs our £30.4m. Software resilience revenue was £56.3m versus our £57.2m, with profit of £22m vs our £21.8m. Excluding the IPM acquisition, revenue declined 1.4%, but was up 2.2% in H2 with EaaS sales orders of £3.4m, up 64% yoy. Cash conversion was 101.9% with net debt of £85m (£52.4m ex finance leases). The new CEO will give a strategy update at the H123 results, but the group is confident in meeting expectations for the full year.
Assurance H2 trends encouraging
Within both Assurance and Software Resilience, H2 showed good momentum. Assurance saw NA growth 20% cc, UK/APAC 16% cc, with only Europe seeing an H2 moderation at c5%. Day rates were up 3.5% in H2 vs 2.1% for the year as a whole and attrition was stable at c21%, a high but manageable level. As expected, gross margins declined slightly to 35.7%, mainly driven by investment into the NA business with overall gross profits in line with our forecasts.
Software resilience better, but work still to be done
Key for us was the pick-up in the business ex IPM during H222 to c2% growth following the unexpected decline in H122, with revenue of £36.1m in line with our forecast. However, this was largely driven by NA and Europe, with the UK, the largest division, down 2.8% for the year. IPM was c3% and 4% behind internal revenue and profit targets respectively, with increased focus on the division. Gross profit of £40.3m was slightly below our £42.4m, although opex control mean EBITA of £22m was in line with our estimates.
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Overall, we see the results as reassuring, with gross margins in Assurance well managed and decent revenue trends. Software Resilience remains somewhat challenged and we look for more details on strategic plans. We will tweak forecasts post the meeting and place them under review.