Numbers Group H1 revenues were up 10.2% cc to £176.6m, with EBITA of £20.5m vs £20.2m H122. In H123 Assurance revenue grew 10.8% with NA up 16%, UK and APCA up 12%, but Europe down 3%. EBITDA was £14.3m, down on the £17.6m H122. Software Resilience revenue was down 1.6%, with Q1 down 4.5% but Q2 up 1.2%, as new sales team changes are taking effect. EBITDA was £14.3m, vs £9.4m H122 which was impacted by the deferred revenue haircut. Cash conversion was 91% vs 75% H122. H2 was always going to be an ask, but is compounded by weakening backdrop The forecasts had required a material profit improvement in H2, leaving scope for some modest downside risk. The reversal of the Assurance H123 conference impact, and benefit from the new sales hires and cost saving in Software Resilience, were reasons given to support the H223 profit jump. However, this has been compounded by longer sales cycles in NA and UK with lower attrition (Darktrace, Cyber Security software vendor also recently commented on similar backdrop). While growth is still expected in H223 (Assurance high single digit) the group is planning on reducing headcount by 7%. FY23 operating profit is expected to be c£52m vs our £56.1m and consensus around c£54m. There will be an additional £5m strategic investment, which was previously flagged although not quantified, taking the adjusted outlook down to c£47m. New strategy The group is keeping FY24 profit expectations intact on the back of benefits from the cost savings and refined strategy, but this will require a big ask and it will be seen to what degree the market has faith in this confidence. The refined strategy is expected to drive low- to mid-teens Assurance growth, with a focus on enhancing the global delivery model and creating an offshore delivery centre. View The softening backdrop will be a headwind to the investment case, which we saw as positive based on the new strategy push around both business units vs the valuation. We still see material value and retain our Buy recommendation, but the forecasts will need to bottom first, to then provide a base to form the investment case around.