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25 Jul 2019
Investec - NCC Group (Buy): Recovery on track

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Investec - NCC Group (Buy): Recovery on track
NCC Group plc (NCC:LON) | 147 0.9 0.4% | Mkt Cap: 464.0m
- Published:
25 Jul 2019 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
Progress. The main H119 concerns were addressed head on, with good progress outlined. Cash generation improved markedly with end FY19 net debt of £20.2m vs £45.1m at H1. Improved systems and the ‘cash’ culture now installed should deliver sustainable conversion of c.90%. A clear Escrow Cloud strategy was given and, while material financial impact is someway off, strategic clarity was needed. Assurance attrition fell in H2 (FY19 18% vs 25% in FY18) addressing UK Technical Consulting resourcing issues. Crucially, the streamlining of systems and operational practice is on track, essential to delivering margin improvement.
Assurance. Sales +9.7% to £212.7m; UK +3% (ex product), NA +23%, Europe +13%. Technical Consulting, 63% of sales, grew 13.5%. Lower H219 attrition & a recruitment drive added 102 to the global headcount giving a good platform for FY20 growth. A refreshed Managed, Detection & Response offering, akin to a new generation Managed Service, and continued focus on reinvigorating UK Risk Management (vertical approach, upselling from Technical Consulting) should move these areas to low double digit growth, from high single digit. Gross margins were 34.6% (FY18 34%) with EBITA margins at 10.6% (FY18: 8.5%). We expect further gradual improvement from improved earnings quality and operational efficiency.
Escrow. Sales -3% to £38m with UK -6.5% (H1 -4.4%) from sales force churn leading to less new business. Renewals held steady at around 90%. GP fell to £28.3m (FY18 £29.9m) with EBITA £19m (FY18 £21.9m) at 50% margin. We forecast 47% in FY20E allowing for investment to advance the Cloud strategy, with scope for improvement thereafter. A clear Cloud strategy was given, with routes to market being the Cloud infrastructure providers (MSFT, Amazon) and Cloud ISVs, as well as end customers. Pricing is not expected to differ materially vs current levels.
View. Forecasts unchanged. Assuming Escrow stabilisation, we see upside from a mix of market demand and operational improvement; we retain our 210p SoTP TP.