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  • 15 Sep 2021

NCC Group : Decent FY21, but niggles rising - Hold


NCC Group plc (NCC:LON) | 147 3.8 1.8% | Mkt Cap: 462.4m


  • Investec Bank
    • Julian Yates | Roger Phillips

    • 7 pages


 

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NCC Group : Decent FY21, but niggles rising - Hold


NCC Group plc (NCC:LON) | 147 3.8 1.8% | Mkt Cap: 462.4m


  • Published: 15 Sep 2021
  • Author: Julian Yates | Roger Phillips
  • Pages: 7
  • Investec Bank


Headline financials. These were strong considering COVID challenges and the business improvement plan was ongoing. Assurance revenue grew 3% in H2, with +10% in UK & APAC and +8% in NA. GMs increased 2pps, driven by strong utilisation of the global resourcing model. Software Resilience fell c2% with steeper H2 declines due to sales attrition with the remote set up not helping. Group orders grew 9%, day rates were stable. Group profits grew 33%. We update divisionals giving a net -2% FY22E group EPS change (see overleaf). Assurance niggles. Attrition increased to 17% from 14%, with NA hardest hit. Wage inflation and increased attrition is now common across IT Services, but NCC has limited price scope with customers in COVID ‘hangover’ mode. The cyber market will be one of the hottest markets spurring the war for talent. NCC is under pressure to build its resource base and pass on wage inflation in due course; if not, revenue will be impacted through lower billable staff than needed and margins compressed from high single digit wage inflation (at least). Being less active in the ‘higher end’ advisory / consultancy area may limit speedy price rises. Combined with rising costs (travel etc) and utilisation shifts off a high base (remote to on-site) we expect margin trends to be constrained. All eyes on Software Resilience. Much effort had gone into stabilising and modestly growing revenues, so the H2 declines were disappointing, albeit driven by remote working forced upon the company driving up sales attrition. However, sales attrition has been a recurring theme and, with modest declines seen for H122 and growth hoped-for in H222, this is not ideal. It places pressure on the IPM delivery and, while we appreciate the deal’s merits, we have previously outlined our concerns around the sustainably of its c65% peak margin, either due to required investment or unexpected sales slippage. View. Our 300p SoTP assumes healthy multiples of 25x FY22E Assurance EBITA and 12x for Resilience and requires these ‘niggles’ to be well contained. We see the share price as capped for now and we stick at Hold.

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