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22 Jun 2023
NCC Group : Difficult not to create value from current level - Buy

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NCC Group : Difficult not to create value from current level - Buy
NCC Group plc (NCC:LON) | 145 -1.7 (-0.8%) | Mkt Cap: 455.5m
- Published:
22 Jun 2023 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
7 -
Cyber Security. H223 revenues -10% (+11% H123) due to previously flagged weakness from the large US West Coast tech vendors. Clients have not been lost, or gone elsewhere; work has been ‘paused’ and a resumption is not assumed in FY24. Managed Services grew 14%. Key senior hires have been made, with initial positive results, some of which we may hear through mini-teach-ins. Essentially the business is not in free fall, trading is stabilising (at lower levels) and there is a sensible strategy to get the business through its challenges and position itself for a market that still has growth to be accessed.
Software Resilience. H2 revenue up 0.6% suggests the business has regained a bit of momentum, with price rises and leadership changes taking effect. The ‘disposal process’ has been officially paused until post the Sept results. We hope for action here, sooner rather than later, to maximise value while trading is progressing well and to act as a suitable value creation catalyst.
Forecasts. Illustrated overleaf we downgrade FY24E & FY25E EBITA by 20% & 16%, moving slightly below management targets for modest profit growth, seeing a more protracted route to a Cyber Assurance margin snap back. However, the key point is these are depressed levels of margins and, ultimately, with the action the business is taking and the end market growth dynamics, we see the business moving back to more reasonable levels of profitability over the medium term, which the current share price is not implying.
View. We struggle to see how value cannot be achieved from current share price levels. Over the medium term it will take some doing not to achieve Cyber Security margin of c10% (or greater) and a value creation event for Software Resilience. Assuming £250m for Software Resilience (below mgmt. mooted >£300m base value), the current price suggests <8x FY25E Cyber Security EBITA driven off a 6% margin, a ‘trough’ depressed margin level. This is an unsustainable situation in our view, with our 130p TP based on 16x EBITA. A ‘normalised’ margin would drive significant upside beyond this.